Spatial correlation matrix selection using Bayesian model averaging to characterize inter-tree competition in loblolly pine trees

Abstract

Many applications of statistical methods for data that are spatially correlated require the researcher to specify the correlation structure of the data. This can be a difficult task as there are many candidate structures. Some spatial correlation structures depend on the distance between the observed data points while others rely on neighborhood structures. In this paper, Bayesian methods that systematically determine the ‘best’ correlation structure from a predefined class of structures are proposed. Bayes factors, Highest Probability Models, and Bayesian Model Averaging are employed to determine the ‘best’ correlation structure and to average across these structures to create a non-parametric alternative structure for a loblolly pine data-set with known tree coordinates. Tree diameters and heights were measured and an investigation into the spatial dependence between the trees was conducted. Results showed that the most probable model for the spatial correlation structure agreed with allometric trends for loblolly pine. A combined Matern, simultaneous autoregressive model and conditional autoregressive model best described the inter-tree competition among the loblolly pine tree data considered in this research.

Keywords:

• autocorrelation
• Bayes factors
• BMA
• geostatistical models
• lattice models
• Pinus taeda

Acknowledgements

The Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Loblolly Pine Growth and Yield Research Cooperative provided the data for this study.