Custom Epoch Estimation for Surveys

ABSTRACT

The paper provides a method for generating epoch estimates for time series survey data, allowing for different periods of time (or even point estimates) according to user demand. The method uses a modified kriging estimator, which suppresses the contribution of sampling error variability in order to guarantee that custom epoch estimates have an interpolation property. For the veteran population variable of the American Community Survey, we utilize a simple Brownian Motion model of the population process and derive the modified kriging estimator for this case. The tuning parameters of this population model can be calibrated to the data via simple formulas. We illustrate the application of this method to the generation of point estimates of veteran population, an important objective for Veterans Affairs.

KEYWORDS:

• American Community Survey
• kriging
• interpolation

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful for helpful criticism from Mark Asiala, Jonathan Bradley, Scott Holan, Patrick Joyce, Eric Slud, as well as two anonymous referees and the Associate Editor.

Disclosure statement

This report is released to inform interested parties of research and to encourage discussion. The views expressed on statistical issues are those of the author and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.

Underlying research materials

The underlying research materials for this article can be accessed at https://www.census.gov/ts/papers/supplementarydata.zip.