Parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian hierarchical models with big data, in two stages

ABSTRACT

Due to the escalating growth of big data sets in recent years, new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parallel computing methods have been developed. These methods partition large data sets by observations into subsets. However, for Bayesian nested hierarchical models, typically only a few parameters are common for the full data set, with most parameters being group specific. Thus, parallel Bayesian MCMC methods that take into account the structure of the model and split the full data set by groups rather than by observations are a more natural approach for analysis. Here, we adapt and extend a recently introduced two-stage Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, and we partition complete data sets by groups. In stage 1, the group-specific parameters are estimated independently in parallel. The stage 1 posteriors are used as proposal distributions in stage 2, where the target distribution is the full model. Using three-level and four-level models, we show in both simulation and real data studies that results of our method agree closely with the full data analysis, with greatly increased MCMC efficiency and greatly reduced computation times. The advantages of our method versus existing parallel MCMC computing methods are also described.

KEYWORDS:

• Bayesian nested hierarchical models
• parallel computing
• big data
• Markov chain Monte Carlo
• Metropolis–Hastings algorithm
• two stages

Acknowledgements

The authors thank the editor and referees for their constructive and insightful comments.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

ORCID

Erin M. Conlon http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3875-5316