II. HOW WE GOT HERE, AND WHERE WE STAND

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Notes

¹Trita Parsi, A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy with Iran (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2012), Kindle edition, location 1461 (ch. 3).

²Parisa Hafezi and Hashem Kalantari, ‘Khamenei Allies Trounce Ahmadinejad in Iran Election’, Reuters, 4 March 2012.

³Anthony H Cordesman and Khalid R Al-Rodhan, Iran's Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Real And Potential Threat, Significant Issues Series, Vol. 28, No. 3 (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2006), p. 103.

⁴Ian Anthony, Christer Ahlström and Vitaly Fedchenko, Reforming Nuclear Export Controls: The Future of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), p. 59.

⁵Sasan Fayazmanesh, The United States and Iran: Sanctions, Wars and the Policy of Dual Containment (Abingdon: Routledge, 2008), pp. 124–25.

⁶National Security Council, ‘Report of the NSSM 219: U.S.–Iran Agreement on Cooperation in Civil Uses of Atomic Energy’, 14 March 1975, p. 1.

⁷Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), ‘Special National Intelligence Estimate: Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons’, 1 April 1974, p. 38.

⁸David Patrikarakos, Nuclear Iran: The Birth of an Atomic State (London: I. B. Tauris, 2012), pp. 48–82.

⁹David Albright and Andrea Stricker, ‘Iran's Nuclear Program’, Iran Primer blog, United States Institute of Peace.

¹⁰Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer, ‘Revisiting Osirak: Preventive Attacks and Nuclear Proliferation Risks’, International Security (Vol. 36, No. 1, 2011).

¹¹Anthony H Cordesman and Abraham R Wagner, The Lessons of Modern War, Volume II: The Iran-Iraq War (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1990), ch. 9.

¹²F Gregory Gause, The International Relations of the Persian Gulf (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), pp. 107, 127, 249.

¹³ Isis-online.org, ‘Internal IAEA Information Links the Supreme Leader to 1984 Decision to Seek a Nuclear Arsenal’, 20 April 2012.

¹⁴ Associated Press, ‘Jane's Believes Iran is Likely to Have N-bomb in 2 Years’, 25 April 1985.

¹⁵Fayazmanesh, The United States and Iran, p. 127.

¹⁶Figures calculated from data in Anthony H Cordesman, Iran's Military Forces in Transition: Conventional Threats and Weapons of Mass Destruction (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1999), pp. 223, 294.

¹⁷Thomas L McNaugher, ‘Ballistic Missiles and Chemical Weapons: The Legacy of the Iran-Iraq War’, International Security (Vol. 15, No. 2, Fall 1990), p. 5.

¹⁸Toby Craig Jones, ‘America, Oil, and War in the Middle East’, Journal of American History (Vol. 99, No. 1, 2012); Joost R Hiltermann, A Poisonous Affair: America, Iraq, and the Gassing of Halabja (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007), p. 37.

¹⁹Karim Sadjadpour, Reading Khamenei: The World View of Iran's Most Powerful Leader (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2009), p. 4.

²⁰Ali M Ansari, Confronting Iran: The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Roots of Mistrust (London: C Hurst & Co Publishers, 2006), pp. 87–88.

²¹Madeleine K Albright, ‘Remarks Before the American-Iranian Council’, speech in Washington, DC, 17 March 2000.

²²Stephen M Walt, Revolution and War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1996), ch. 5.

²³Fred Halliday, Islam and the Myth of Confrontation: Religion and Politics in the Middle East, 2^nd ed. (London: I. B. Tauris, 2003), p. 70.

²⁴Ali M Ansari, Modern Iran, 2^nd ed. (Harlow: Pearson Education, 2007), p. 288.

²⁵Ali M Ansari, Modern Iran, 2^nd ed. (Harlow: Pearson Education, 2007), p. 227.

²⁶Augustus Richard Norton, Hezbollah: A Short History (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009), pp. 34–35.

²⁷The White House, ‘National Security Directive 26: U.S. Policy Toward the Persian Gulf’, 2 October 1989, p. 3.

²⁸Multiple examples are given in Dalia Dassa Kaye, Alireza Nader and Parisa Roshan, Israel and Iran: a Dangerous Rivalry (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2011), pp. 10–15.

²⁹Multiple examples are given in Dalia Dassa Kaye, Alireza Nader and Parisa Roshan, Israel and Iran: a Dangerous Rivalry (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2011), pp. 11–14.

³⁰Seyed Hossein Mousavian, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012), p. 190.

³¹Seymour M Hersh, ‘Our Men in Iran?’, New Yorker, 6 April 2012. In September 2012, the Mujahideen-e-Khalq was delisted as a terrorist organisation, following its intensive lobbying effort in the US.

³²Ray Takeyh, Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 245.

³³Adrian Levy and Cathy Scott-Clark, Deception: Pakistan, the United States, and the Secret Trade in Nuclear Weapons (New York: Walker & Company, 2007), p. 334.

³⁴Douglas Jehl, ‘C.I.A. Says Pakistanis Gave Iran Nuclear Aid’, New York Times, 24 November 2004; William J Broad and David E Sanger, ‘Report Says Iran Has Data to Make a Nuclear Bomb’, New York Times, 3 October 2009.

³⁵Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia & the Middle East (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007), p. 164.

³⁶Frank Barnaby, How Nuclear Weapons Spread: Nuclear-Weapon Proliferation in the 1990s (Abingdon: Routledge, 2005), p. 99.

³⁷Parisa Hafezi, ‘Iran to Load Own Nuclear Fuel Rods in Tehran Reactor’, Reuters, 15 February 2012. Iran has since developed further rationales, such as an implausible interest in a nuclear-powered submarine programme.

³⁸John W Parker, Persian Dreams: Moscow and Tehran Since the Fall of the Shah (Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2009), ch. 6; Vladimir A Orlov and Alexander Vinnikov, ‘The Great Guessing Game: Russia and the Iranian Nuclear Issue’, Washington Quarterly (Vol. 28, No. 2, 2005).

³⁹Chris Hedges, ‘Iran May Be Able to Build an Atomic Bomb in 5 Years, U.S. and Israeli Officials Fear’, New York Times, 5 January 1995.

⁴⁰Anthony, Ahlström and Fedchenko, Reforming Nuclear Export Controls, p. 60.

⁴¹Stuart D Goldman, Kenneth Katzman, Robert D Shuey and Carl E Behrens, ‘Russian Missile Technology and Nuclear Reactor Transfers to Iran’, Congressional Research Service, 29 July 1998, pp. 12–13.

⁴²Gordon Corera, Shopping for Bombs: Nuclear Proliferation, Global Insecurity, and the Rise and Fall of the A.Q. Khan Network (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006), p. 63.

⁴³Fred Halliday, The Middle East in International Relations: Power, Politics and Ideology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005), p. 136.

⁴⁴Victor Mizin, ‘The Russia-Iran Nuclear Connection and U.S. Policy Options’, Middle East Review of International Affairs (Vol. 8, No. 1, March 2004), p. 75.

⁴⁵Jahangir Amuzegar, ‘Iran's Economy and the US Sanctions’, Middle East Journal (Vol. 51, No. 2, Spring 1997).

⁴⁶Daniel Byman, Deadly Connections: States That Sponsor Terrorism (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005), p. 108.

⁴⁷Afshin Molavi, ‘Iran and the Gulf States’, Iran Primer blog, United States Institute of Peace.

⁴⁸David Menashri, Post-Revolutionary Politics in Iran: Religion, Society and Power (London: Frank Cass, 2001), p. 67.

⁴⁹Saïd Amir Arjomand, After Khomeini: Iran Under His Successors (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 144.

⁵⁰Iyad Barghouti, ‘Palestinian Islamists and the Middle East Peace Conference’, International Spectator (Vol. 28, No. 1, 1993); Wendy Kristianasen, ‘Challenge and Counterchallenge: Hamas's Response to Oslo’, Journal of Palestine Studies (Vol. 28, No. 3, Spring 1999), pp. 19–36.

⁵¹Ray Takeyh, ‘Iran, Israel and the Politics of Terrorism’, Survival (Vol. 48, No. 4, 2006), pp. 83–96.

⁵²Arjomand, After Khomeini, p. 144.

⁵³Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Iran-Europe Relations: Challenges and Opportunities (Abingdon: Routledge, 2008), p. 2. Admittedly, this rapprochement was not without setbacks. The biggest crisis, until the nuclear file, came in 1996–97 with the conviction of Iranian agents for the assassination of Kurdish-Iranian opposition leaders in Berlin.

⁵⁴Mousavian, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis, p. 438.

⁵⁵James Dobbins, Alireza Nader, Dalia Dassa Kaye and Frederic Wehrey, Coping with a Nuclearizing Iran (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2011), p. 67.

⁵⁶Peter Jones, ‘Succession and the Supreme Leader in Iran’, Survival (Vol. 53, No. 6, 2011), p. 109.

⁵⁷Matthew C Wells, ‘Thermidor in the Islamic Republic of Iran: The Rise of Muhammad Khatami’, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies (Vol. 26, No. 1, 1999); Ray Takeyh, ‘Iran at a Crossroads’, Middle East Journal (Vol. 57, No. 1, Winter 2003).

⁵⁸Rick Gladstone and Nicholas Kulish, ‘West Tightens Iran Sanctions After Embassy Attack’, New York Times, 1 December 2011.

⁵⁹Ray Takeyh and Suzanne Maloney, ‘The Self-Limiting Success of Iran Sanctions’, International Affairs (Vol. 87, No. 6, 2011), p. 1301.

⁶⁰Elaine Sciolino, ‘C.I.A. Says Iran Makes Progress on Atom Arms’, New York Times, 30 November 1992.

⁶¹Hedges, ‘Iran May Be Able to Build an Atomic Bomb in 5 Years’; from the same year, see Shahram Chubin, ‘Does Iran Want Nuclear Weapons?’, Survival (Vol. 37, No. 1, Spring 1995).

⁶²CIA, ‘Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions’, 1998.

⁶³Leah Farrall, ‘Interview with a Taliban Insider: Iran's Game in Afghanistan’, Atlantic Monthly, 14 November 2011.

⁶⁴Emile Hokayem, ‘Chapter Eight: Iran’, in Afghanistan: To 2015 and Beyond, Adelphi Series (Vol. 51, No. 425–26, 2011).

⁶⁵Mohsen M Milani, ‘Iran's Policy Towards Afghanistan’, Middle East Journal (Vol. 60, No. 2, 2006).

⁶⁶Barnett R Rubin and Sara Batmanglich, ‘The US and Iran in Afghanistan: Policy Gone Awry’, MIT Center for International Studies, October 2008, p. 3.

⁶⁷Barnett R Rubin and Sara Batmanglich, ‘The US and Iran in Afghanistan: Policy Gone Awry’, MIT Center for International Studies, October 2008, p. 4.

⁶⁸Dobbins, Nader, Kaye and Wehrey, Coping with a Nuclearizing Iran, pp. 4–8.

⁶⁹Christopher M Blanchard, Kenneth Katzman, Carol Migdalovitz and Jeremy Sharp, ‘Iraq: Regional Perspectives and U.S. Policy’, Congressional Research Service, 6 October 2009, p. 8.

⁷⁰Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2006), p. 242.

⁷¹Rod Nordland, ‘Iran Plays Host to Delegations After Iraq Elections’, New York Times, 1 April 2010.

⁷²Mohammed Tawfeeq and Jonathan Wald, ‘Sources: Iran Helped Prod Al-Sadr Cease-fire’, CNN, 31 March 2008.

⁷³Ali Gheissari and Vali Nasr, ‘The Conservative Consolidation in Iran’, Survival (Vol. 47, No. 2, 2005).

⁷⁴Ansari, Modern Iran, p. 334.

⁷⁵Jones, ‘Succession and the Supreme Leader in Iran’, p. 108.

⁷⁶However, the Isfahan uranium-conversion facility was reactivated and its IAEA seals removed ‘in the last days of the Khatami presidency’. See Mousavian, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis, p. 179.

⁷⁷Barbara Slavin, ‘Former Iranian Negotiator Faults His Nation's Nuclear Diplomacy’, Al-Monitor, 6 June 2012.

⁷⁸Robert Jervis, ‘Understanding the Bush Doctrine’, Political Science Quarterly (Vol. 118, No. 3, 2003), pp. 369–84.

⁷⁹Dobbins, Nader, Kaye and Wehrey, Coping with a Nuclearizing Iran, pp. 7–8.

⁸⁰Glenn Kessler, ‘Rice Denies Seeing Iranian Proposal in ‘03’, Washington Post, 8 February 2007.

⁸¹Author interviews with retired British and American officials, Washington, DC and London, April and July 2012.

⁸²Glenn Kessler, ‘2003 Memo Says Iranian Leaders Backed Talks’, Washington Post, 14 February 2007.

⁸³Parsi, A Single Roll of the Dice, Kindle edition, location 189 (ch. 1).

⁸⁴Levy and Scott-Clark, Deception, pp. 332–35.

⁸⁵US Department of Defense, ‘Nuclear Posture Review Report’, 8 January 2002, p. 16; James Risen with Judith Miller, ‘C.I.A. Tells Clinton An Iranian A-Bomb Can't be Ruled Out’, New York Times, 17 January 2000.

⁸⁶Nazila Fathi, ‘Iran Signs Inspection Pact on Atomic Sites’, New York Times, 18 December 2003.

⁸⁷US National Intelligence Council, ‘National Intelligence Estimate – Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities’, November 2007.

⁸⁸Bruno Schirra, ‘Germany's Spies Refuted the 2007 NIE Report’, Wall Street Journal, 20 July 2009.

⁸⁹ Guardian, ‘Iran Urged to Re-suspend Uranium Enrichment’, 11 August 2005.

⁹⁰David Patrikarakos, ‘Why This Round of Iran Nuclear Talks is Different’, Haaretz, 4 May 2012.

⁹¹Hassan Rowhani, ‘Beyond the Challenges Facing Iran and the IAEA Concerning the Nuclear Dossier’, speech to the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council, trans. FBIS, Rahbord, 30 September 2005, pp. 8–13, <http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2012/08/Rahbord.pdf>, accessed 19 October 2012.

⁹²This ‘package’ is documented in UN Security Council Resolution 1747.

⁹³I am grateful to Andrea Berger for clarifying these points.

⁹⁴David E Sanger and William J Broad, ‘U.S. and Allies Warn Iran Over Nuclear “Deception”’, New York Times, 25 September 2009.

⁹⁵James M Acton, ‘Iran Violated International Obligations on Qom Facility’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 25 September 2009.

⁹⁶Daniel Joyner, ‘The Qom Enrichment Facility: Was Iran Legally Bound to Disclose?’, Jurist, 5 March 2010.

⁹⁷Mark Fitzpatrick, ‘Iran: The Fragile Promise of the Fuel-Swap Plan’, Survival (Vol. 52, No. 3, 2010).

⁹⁸David E Sanger, ‘Both Iran and West Fear a Trap on Deal’, New York Times, 25 October 2009.

⁹⁹Mark Fitzpatrick, ‘Containing the Iranian Nuclear Crisis: The Useful Precedent of a Fuel Swap’, Perceptions (Vol. 16, No. 2, Summer 2011), p. 15.

¹⁰⁰International Crisis Group, ‘In Heavy Waters: Iran's Nuclear Program, the Risk of War and Lessons from Turkey’, Middle East and Europe Report No. 116, February 2012, p. 11.

¹⁰¹Fitzpatrick, ‘Containing the Iranian Nuclear Crisis’, p. 21.

¹⁰²Fitzpatrick, ‘Iran’, p. 74.

¹⁰³Diego Santos Vieira de Jesus, ‘Building Trust and Flexibility: A Brazilian View of the Fuel Swap with Iran’, Washington Quarterly (Vol. 34, No. 2, 2011); Delphine Strauss and David Gardner, ‘Turkey: The Sentinel Swivels’, Financial Times, 20 July 2010.

¹⁰⁴ Reuters, ‘Powers Dismiss Iran Fuel Offer Before U.N. Vote’, 9 June 2010.

¹⁰⁵US embassy, ‘US Embassy Cable – 2010: Vienna's Year of Iran?’, Vienna, 16 December 2009, <http://cables.mrkva.eu/cable.php?id = 240210>, accessed 19 October 2012. Note that this cable was written before the swap deal collapsed.

¹⁰⁶David E Sanger, Confront and Conceal: Obama's Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (New York: Crown, 2012), p. 185.

¹⁰⁷Scott Peterson, ‘Why Iran Nuclear Talks Ended in Stalemate’, Christian Science Monitor, 22 January 2011.

¹⁰⁸Director General of the IAEA, GOV/2011/65, ‘Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and Relevant Provisions of Security Council Resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran’, IAEA, 8 November 2011.

¹⁰⁹ BBC News, ‘UK Severs Ties with Iranian Banks’, 22 November 2011.

¹¹⁰Laura MacInnis, ‘U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Banks Dealing with Iran’, Reuters, 1 January 2012.

¹¹¹Rick Gladstone and Stephen Castle, ‘Global Network Expels as Many as 30 of Iran's Banks in Move to Isolate its Economy’, New York Times, 15 March 2012.

¹¹² BBC News, ‘EU Iran Sanctions: Ministers Adopt Iran Oil Imports Ban’, 23 January 2012.

¹¹³Frank Barnaby, How Nuclear Weapons Spread, p. 33.

¹¹⁴Director General of the IAEA, GOV/2012/23, ‘Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and Relevant Provisions of Security Council Resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran’, IAEA, 25 May 2012, p. 3.

¹¹⁵David Albright and Christina Walrond, ‘Iranian Production of 19.75 Percent Enriched Uranium: Beyond its Realistic Needs’, ISIS Report, 15 June 2012, pp. 6–7.

¹¹⁶David Blair, ‘Israel says Iran has Pulled Back from the Brink of Nuclear Weapon – For Now’, Daily Telegraph, 30 October 2012.

¹¹⁷Fredrik Dahl, ‘U.N.'s Nuclear Report on Iran May not be All Bad News for West’, Reuters, 14 November 2012.

¹¹⁸For the higher and lower estimates see, respectively, David Albright, Frans Berkhout and William Walker, World Inventory of Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1992 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), p. 66; Thomas B Cochran, ‘The Problem of Nuclear Energy Proliferation’, in Patrick L Clawson (ed.), Energy and National Security in the 21 ^st Century (Washington, DC: National Defense University, 1995), p. 98.

¹¹⁹ CBS News, ‘The Defense Secretary: Leon Panetta’, 29 January 2012.

¹²⁰Dan De Luce, ‘If Iran Builds Bomb, US Has a Year to Act: Panetta’, AFP, 11 September 2012.

¹²¹‘Iran's Nuclear Matrix’, Washington Post, 12 April 2012

¹²²Albright and Walrond, ‘Iranian Production of 19.75 Percent Enriched Uranium’, p. 8.

¹²³Director General of the IAEA, GOV/2012/37, ‘Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement’, p. 5.

¹²⁴Mark Hibbs, ‘IAEA Inspectors’ Risk in Iran’, Arms Control Wonk blog, 20 August 2012.

¹²⁵See Michael A Levi, ‘Limiting Iranian Nuclear Activities: Options and Consequences’, Council on Foreign Relations Working Paper, February 2011, pp. 5–6.

¹²⁶David E Sanger, ‘On Iran, Questions of Defense and Response Divide U.S. and Israel’, New York Times, 6 March 2012.

¹²⁷Greg Thielmann and Kelsey Davenport, ‘Clarifying the Record on Iran's Alleged Nuclear Weapons Program’, Arms Control Now, 11 September 2012.

¹²⁸Jacques E C Hymans, ‘Botching the Bomb’, Foreign Affairs (May/June 2012).

¹²⁹Jeffrey Lewis, ‘How Long For Japan To Build A Deterrent?’, Arms Control Wonk blog, 28 December 2006; Jacques E C Hymans, ‘Veto Players, Nuclear Energy, and Nonproliferation: Domestic Institutional Barriers to a Japanese Bomb’, International Security (Vol. 36, No. 2, Fall 2011), pp. 170, 186.

¹³⁰Ariel E Levite, ‘Never Say Never Again: Nuclear Reversal Revisited’, International Security (Vol. 27, No. 3, Winter 2002–03).

¹³¹Peter Hennessy (ed.), Cabinets and the Bomb (Oxford: Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Academy, 2007), p. 85.

¹³²US National Intelligence Council, ‘National Intelligence Estimate – Iran’.

¹³³Jeffrey Lewis, ‘The Ayatollah's Pregnant Pause’, Foreign Policy, 15 August 2012.

¹³⁴‘Annex: Possible Military Dimensions to Iran's Nuclear Programme’, in Director General of the IAEA, ‘Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and Relevant Provisions of Security Council Resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran’, GOV/2011/65, 8 November 2011; note the highly detailed organisational chart on p. 5.

¹³⁵Amos Harel, ‘IDF Chief to Haaretz: I Do Not Believe Iran Will Decide to Develop Nuclear Weapons’, Haaretz, 25 April 2012.

¹³⁶ Guardian, ‘US Embassy Cables: New UN Chief is “Director General of All States, but in Agreement with Us”’, 2 December 2009.

¹³⁷Julian Borger, ‘Nuclear Watchdog Chief Accused of Pro-Western Bias over Iran’, Guardian, 22 March 2012

¹³⁸Robert Kelley, ‘Nuclear Arms Charge Against Iran is No Slam Dunk: Robert Kelley’, Bloomberg, 11 January 2012.

¹³⁹Fitzpatrick, ‘Containing the Iranian Nuclear Crisis’, p. 75.

¹⁴⁰David E Sanger and William J Broad, ‘A Defiant Iran Vows to Build Nuclear Plants’, New York Times, 29 November 2009.

¹⁴¹World Nuclear Association, ‘Nuclear Power in Iran’, 31 August 2012.

¹⁴²Peter Crail, ‘Bushehr Fuel Loading Commences’, Arms Control Today, September 2010.

¹⁴³Glenn Kessler, ‘U.S. Unveils Offer to Help Iran Purchase Medical Isotopes’, Washington Post, 10 February 2010.

¹⁴⁴Thomas W Wood, Matthew D Milazzo, Barbara A Reichmuth and Jeffrey Bedell, ‘The Economics of Energy Independence for Iran’, Nonproliferation Review (Vol. 14, No. 1, March 2007), p. 89.

¹⁴⁵Roger Stern, ‘The Iranian Petroleum Crisis and United States National Security’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Vol. 104, No. 1, 2 January 2007), p. 381.

¹⁴⁶Rick Gladstone and Christine Hauser, ‘Iran's Top Atomic Official Says Nation Issued False Nuclear Data to Fool Spies’, New York Times, 20 September 2012.

¹⁴⁷Rowhani, ‘Beyond the Challenges Facing Iran and the IAEA’, p. 32.

¹⁴⁸See Director General of the IAEA, GOV/2012/37, ‘Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement’, pp. 5, 13.

¹⁴⁹Geoffrey Forden, ‘A Primer on Iran's Medical Reactor Plans’, Arms Control Wonk blog, 4 October 2009.

¹⁵⁰Thomas Erdbrink and Rick Gladstone, ‘Iran's President Says New Sanctions Are Toughest Yet’, New York Times, 3 July 2012.

¹⁵¹See Diego Santos Vieira de Jesus, ‘The Brazilian Way’, Nonproliferation Review (Vol. 17, No. 3, October 2010); Sebnem Udum, ‘Turkey's Nuclear Comeback: An Energy Renaissance in an Evolving Regional Security Context’, Nonproliferation Review (Vol. 17, No. 2, July 2010); Jorge G Castaneda, ‘Not Ready for Prime Time: Why Including Emerging Powers at the Helm Would Hurt Global Governance’, Foreign Affairs (September/October 2010).

¹⁵²Seyed Hossein Mousavian, in his list of ‘major Iranian security objectives’, places ‘Iran with self-sufficiency on nuclear [and other] technology’ at the very top, above even an end to the US presence in the region. See Mousavian, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis, p. 3.

¹⁵³Mehdi Mohammadi, ‘Interview with Dr Hasan Rowhani’, trans. FBIS, Keyhan, 2005, p. 8, <http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/file_download/99/Rowhani_Interview.pdf>, accessed 19 October 2012.

¹⁵⁴Ray Takeyh, ‘Iran's Missing Moderates’, New York Times, 18 March 2012.

¹⁵⁵Takeyh and Maloney, ‘The Self-Limiting Success of Iran Sanctions’, p. 12.

¹⁵⁶Gause, The International Relations of the Persian Gulf, p. 43.

¹⁵⁷ Gause, The International Relations of the Persian Gulf, p. 45.

¹⁵⁸Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Insecure Gulf: The End of Certainty and the Transition to the Post-Oil Era (New York: Columbia University Press, 2011), pp. 39, 55.

¹⁵⁹Anthony H Cordesman, ‘World Arms Sales and The Middle East: Changing Trends in Economic Impact, Purchases by Country, New Agreements, Deliveries, and Suppliers’, Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 1997, p. 59.

¹⁶⁰Michael Axworthy, Iran: Empire of the Mind: A History from Zoroaster to the Present Day (London: Penguin, 2008), pp. 124–25.

¹⁶¹F Gregory Gause, Oil Monarchies: Domestic and Security Challenges in the Arab Gulf States (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1994), pp. 31–33.

¹⁶²Roscoe S Suddarth, ‘US Embassy Cable: Saudi Policy Toward Iran’, US embassy, Riyadh, 12 June 1985, <http://cables.mrkva.eu/cable.php?id = 67>, accessed 19 October 2012.

¹⁶³Ulrichsen, Insecure Gulf, p. 52.

¹⁶⁴Mehran Kamrava, ‘The Arab Spring and the Saudi-Led Counterrevolution’, Orbis (Vol. 56, No. 1, Winter 2012).

¹⁶⁵Toby Craig Jones, ‘Saudi Arabia Versus the Arab Spring’, Raritan: A Quarterly Review (Vol. 31, No. 2, 2011), p. 58.

¹⁶⁶Robert F Worth, ‘Effort to Rebrand Arab Spring Backfires in Iran’, New York Times, 2 February 2012.

¹⁶⁷Toby C Jones, ‘Bahrain's Revolutionaries Speak: An Exclusive Interview with Bahrain's Coalition of February 14th Youth’, Jadaliyya, 22 March 2012.

¹⁶⁸Mahmoud Cherif Bassiouni, Nigel Rodley, Badria Al-Awadhi, Philippe Kirsch and Mahnoush H Arsanjani, ‘Report of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry’, Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry, 23 November 2011, pp. 383–85.

¹⁶⁹Mark Landler and Steven Lee Myers, ‘With $30 Billion Arms Deal, U.S. Bolsters Saudi Ties’, New York Times, 29 December 2011.

¹⁷⁰Along these lines, James Dobbins notes that the ‘Saudi leadership appears to perceive that any loosening of the status quo will result in a net gain for Iran – an exaggerated perception of threat that plays into the hands of the Islamic Republic and puts Riyadh at odds with Washington's attempts to encourage measured and peaceful reform in the region’. See Dobbins, Nader, Kaye and Wehrey, Coping with a Nuclearizing Iran, p. 33.

¹⁷¹Shashank Joshi, ‘Reflections on the Arab Revolutions: Order, Democracy and Western Policy’, RUSI Journal (Vol. 156, No. 2, April/May 2011).

¹⁷²Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, ‘The Arab Opinion Project: The Arab Opinion Index’, March 2012.

¹⁷³Ali Ansari, Shahram Chubin and Hassan Hakimian, ‘The Challenge of Uncertainty: Iran's Ambitions and Choices’, transcript of panel discussion, Chatham House, London, 29 March 2012, p. 6.

¹⁷⁴Shashank Joshi, ‘The Middle East: The Persian Illusion’, World Today (Vol. 67, No. 5, June 2011).

¹⁷⁵Christopher Phillips, ‘Syria and Iran: Diplomatic Alliance and Power in the Middle East’, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies (Vol. 38, No. 3, 2011).

¹⁷⁶Hussein J Agha and Ahmad Samih Khalidi, Syria and Iran: Rivalry and Cooperation (New York: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1995), pp. 1–8.

¹⁷⁷Abbas William Samii, ‘A Stable Structure on Shifting Sands: Assessing the Hizbullah-Iran-Syria Relationship’, Middle East Journal (Vol. 62, No. 1, Winter 2008), pp. 37–38.

¹⁷⁸Matthew Levitt, Hamas: Politics, Charity, And Terrorism in the Service of Jihad (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006), p. 45.

¹⁷⁹Khaled Yacoub Oweis and Angus MacSwan, ‘Iranian Ships Reach Syria, Assad Allies Show Support’, Reuters, 20 February 2012; Joby Warrick and Liz Sly, ‘U.S. Officials: Iran is Stepping up Lethal Aid to Syria’, Washington Post, 4 March 2012.

¹⁸⁰Ian Black, ‘Iran Confirms it Has Forces in Syria and Will Take Military Action if Pushed’, Guardian, 16 September 2012.

¹⁸¹Emile Hokayem, ‘Syria and its Neighbours’, Survival (Vol. 54, No. 2, April–May 2012), p. 8.

¹⁸²On strained Turkish-Iranian ties, see ICG, ‘In Heavy Waters’, p. 21.

¹⁸³Omar Fahmy and Nidal Al-Mughrabi, ‘Hamas Ditches Assad, Backs Syrian Revolt’, Reuters, 24 February 2012.

¹⁸⁴Fares Akram, ‘Hamas Leader Abandons Longtime Base in Damascus’, New York Times, 27 January 2012.

¹⁸⁵ Haaretz, ‘Final Member of Damascus-Based Hamas Politburo Leaves Syria’, 5 February 2012.

¹⁸⁶ Haaretz, ‘Iran Cuts Hamas Funding for Failing to Show Support for Assad’, 21 August 2011.

¹⁸⁷Harriet Sherwood, ‘Hamas Rules Out Military Support for Iran in any War with Israel’, Guardian, 6 March 2012.

¹⁸⁸Hokayem, ‘Syria and its Neighbours’, p. 9.

¹⁸⁹Efraim Halevy, ‘Iran's Achilles’ Heel’, New York Times, 7 February 2012.

¹⁹⁰Julian Borger, ‘Hopes Grow of a Confidence-Building Deal on Iranian Nuclear Programme’, Guardian, 16 May 2012.