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Original Articles

V. The Future of Indian Power Projection

Pages 119-141 | Published online: 23 Dec 2015
 

Notes

1 Compare with Itty Abraham (ed.), South Asian Cultures of the Bomb: Atomic Publics and the State in India and Pakistan (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2009), p. 165.

2 Walter C Ladwig III, ‘India and Military Power Projection: Will the Land of Gandhi Become a Conventional Great Power?’, Asian Survey (Vol. 50, No. 6, November 2010), pp. 1162–64.

3 For an excellent elucidation of Chinese views of Indian ‘hegemonism’, see John W Garver, Protracted Contest: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century (Seattle, WA: University of Washington Press, 2001), pp. 15–19, 30–31.

4 Condoleezza Rice, ‘A Balance of Power that Favors Freedom’, Wriston Lecture given at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, 1 October 2002.

5 Joshua Rovner and Caitlin Talmadge, ‘Hegemony, Force Posture, and the Provision of Public Goods: The Once and Future Role of Outside Powers in Securing Persian Gulf Oil’, Security Studies (Vol. 23, No. 3, July 2014), p. 556; Fred Halliday, The Middle East in International Relations: Power, Politics and Ideology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005), p. 142.

6 Roy Allison, ‘Russia Resurgent? Moscow's Campaign to “Coerce Georgia to Peace”’, International Affairs (Vol. 84, No. 6, November 2008), p. 1167; Roy Allison, ‘Russian “Deniable” Intervention in Ukraine: How and Why Russia Broke the Rules', International Affairs (Vol. 90, No. 6, November 2014), pp. 1282–89.

7 Ian Hall, ‘Tilting at Windmills? The Indian Debate over the Responsibility to Protect after UNSC Resolution 1973’, Global Responsibility to Protect (Vol. 5, No. 1, 2013).

8 Garver, Protracted Contest, p. 18; Devin T Hagerty, ‘India's Regional Security Doctrine’, Asian Survey (Vol. 31, No. 4, April 1991), pp. 362–63.

9 C Raja Mohan, ‘Samudra Manthan: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific’, Brief, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012, chs. 7–9.

10 John Chalmers and Sanjeev Miglani, ‘Indian Spy's Role Alleged in Sri Lankan President's Election Defeat’, Reuters, 18 January 2015; Krishna Pokharel and Niharika Mandhana, ‘Three-Week Bridge Blockade Hurts Nepal Economy’, Wall Street Journal, 15 October 2015.

11 Neil Devotta, ‘Is India Over-Extended? When Domestic Disorder Precludes Regional Intervention’, Contemporary South Asia (Vol. 12, No. 3, September 2003); Sachin Parashar, ‘Nasheed's Party Wants India to Intervene’, Times of India, 15 March 2015.

12 Ashley J Tellis, ‘Making Waves: Aiding India's Next-Generation Aircraft Carrier’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 2015, p. 5.

13 Abhijit Singh, ‘The Indian Navy's “New” Expeditionary Outlook’, ORF Occasional Paper No. 37, Observer Research Foundation, October 2012, p. 10.

14 Jayanta Gupta, ‘Chinese Naval Ships Detected near Andamans', Times of India, 4 September 2015.

15 Prem Mahadevan, The Politics of Counterterrorism in India: Strategic Intelligence and National Security in South Asia (London: I.B.Tauris, 2011), pp. 1–25.

16 Shashank Joshi, ‘India's Role in a Changing Afghanistan’, Washington Quarterly (Vol. 37, No. 2, Summer 2014).

17 C Christine Fair, Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army's Way of War (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014), pp. 226–60.

18 A S Dulat and Aditya Sinha, Kashmir: The Vajpayee Years (Noida: Uttar Pradesh: HarperCollins India, 2015), ch. 6.

19 Sushant K Singh, ‘A Bigger Military Presence Is Essential’, Pragati: The Indian National Interest Review (No. 17, August 2008); Nitin Pai and Rohit Pradhan, ‘Why India Must Send Troops to Afghanistan’, Pragati: The Indian National Interest Review, 1 January 2010.

20 Vicky Nanjappa, ‘How India and 70 Other Countries Will Fight the ISIS', One India, 5 October 2015, <http://www.oneindia.com/india/how-india-70-other-countries-will-fight-the-isis-1889530.html>, accessed 22 October 2015; Economic Times, ‘Rapid Increase of ISIS Activities in India's Neighbourhood’, 29 September 2015.

21 Stephen Tankel, Jihadist Violence: The Indian Threat (Washington, DC: Wilson Center, 2013), p. 8.

22 Stephen Tankel, ‘Pakistan's Sticky Wicket: The India-Saudi Link’, Foreign Policy, 30 July 2012; The Wire, ‘Diplomacy Decoded: Terrorism in the India-UAE Joint Statement’, 18 August 2015.

23 Saikat Datta, ‘In ISIS Wake, India May Tweak West Asia Policy’, Hindustan Times, 10 September 2014.

24 Shashi Tharoor, ‘India's Israel Envy’, Project Syndicate, 12 January 2009; Stephen P Cohen and Sunil Dasgupta, Arming without Aiming: India's Military Modernization (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2010), p. 184; George Perkovich and Toby Dalton, ‘Modi's Strategic Choice: How to Respond to Terrorism from Pakistan’, Washington Quarterly (Vol. 38, No. 1, Spring 2015), p. 41.

25 Pew Research Center, ‘Global Opposition to U.S. Surveillance and Drones, but Limited Harm to America's Image’, July 2014, p. 5.

26 Export-Import Bank of India, ‘Outward Direct Investment from India: Trends, Objectives, and Policy Perspectives', Occasional Paper No. 165, May 2014, p. 13.

27 Ibid., p. 15.

28 Ibid, p. 42.

29 Pranab Dhal Samanta, ‘Three Months after Nitin Gadkari's Iran Visit, Chabahar Port Project Runs into Trouble’, Economic Times, 17 August 2015; Michelle FlorCruz, ‘Vietnam and India Sign Oil, Naval Agreement amid South China Sea Disputes, Angering Beijing’, International Business Times, 29 October 2014.

30 Kabir Taneja, ‘A Survey of India's Energy Prospects in the Middle East Region’, discussion document, Takshashila Institution, November 2014, p. 15.

31 Energy Information Administration, ‘India is Increasingly Dependent on Imported Fossil Fuels as Demand Continues to Rise’, 14 August 2014, <http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=17551#>, accessed 22 October 2015.

32 Reuters, ‘Coal Imports Could Slide 3 Percent in 2015/16 – Government’, 23 July 2015.

33 Nidhi Verma, ‘Saudi Arabia Loses Spot as Top Crude Supplier to India, China’, Reuters, 24 June 2015.

34 International Institute for Sustainable Development, India Energy Subsidy Review: A Biannual Survey of Energy Subsidy Policy (Vol. 1, No. 1, February 2014), p. 3.

35 Reuters, ‘India to Spend $37 Bln on Major Subsidies in 2015/16’, Yahoo Finance, 28 February 2015.

36 Srinath Raghavan, ‘The Diaspora and India’, India Review (Vol. 11, No. 1, January 2012), p. 67.

37 Devesh Kapur, Diaspora, Development, and Democracy: The Domestic Impact of International Migration from India (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2010), p. 15.

38 David Brewster and Ranjit Rai, ‘Operation Lal Dora: India's Aborted Military Intervention in Mauritius', Asian Security (Vol. 9, No. 1, March 2013), p. 66.

39 Ibid., pp. 65–70.

40 Neil DeVotta, ‘Sri Lanka's Civil War’, in Sumit Ganguly, Andrew Scobell and Joseph Chinyong Liow (eds), Handbook of Asian Security Studies (Oxford: Routledge, 2009), p. 164.

41 Andrew Scobell, ‘Politics, Professionalism, and Peacekeeping: An Analysis of the 1987 Military Coup in Fiji’, Comparative Politics (Vol. 26, No. 2, January 1994); Sina Emde, ‘Feared Rumours and Rumours of Fear: The Politicisation of Ethnicity During the Fiji Coup in May 2000’, Oceania (Vol. 75, No. 4, September–December 2005).

42 David Brewster, India as an Asia Pacific Power (Oxford: Routledge, 2012), p. 126.

43 Rory Medcalf, ‘Facing the Future: India Views of the World Ahead’, India Poll 2013, Lowy Institute for International Policy and Australia India Institute, 2013, p. 22.

44 Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs, Government of India, ‘Population of Overseas Indians', 2015, <http://moia.gov.in/writereaddata/pdf/Population_Overseas_Indian.pdf>, accessed 22 October 2015.

45 T K Vineeth, ‘The Social Construct of India's High-Remittance Story’, Business Standard, 15 April 2015.

46 Barry R Posen, ‘Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony’, International Security (Vol. 28, No. 1, Summer 2003), p. 8.

47 Michelle Flournoy and Shawn Brimley, ‘The Contested Commons’, Proceedings Magazine (Vol. 135, No. 7, July 2009).

48 Rajiv K Bhatia and Vijay Sakhuja (eds), Indo Pacific Region: Political and Strategic Prospects (Delhi: Vij Books, 2014), pp. 150–51.

49 Sunil Khilnani et al., ‘Non-Alignment 2.0: A Foreign and Strategic Policy for India in the Twenty First Century’, Centre for Policy Research, 2012, p. 8.

50 DNA, ‘Indian Navy Committed to Ensuring Safety of Indian Ocean Sea Lanes Says External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’, 3 November 2014.

51 White House, ‘U.S.-India Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region’, press release, 25 January 2015.

52 Shivshankar Menon, ‘It's Time for India to Start Looking West Again’, The Wire, 15 October 2010.

53 Integrated Headquarters, Ministry of Defence (Navy), ‘Freedom to Use the Seas: India's Maritime Military Strategy’, May 2007, p. 118.

54 Hari Kumar and Alan Cowell, ‘Indian Warship Skirmishes with Pirates in Gulf of Aden’, New York Times, 20 November 2008.

55 Muaz Shabandri, ‘Indian Navy Will Support Anti-Piracy Operations’, Khaleej Times, 17 September 2003; The Hindu, ‘Indian Warships Sent to Yemen to Provide Anti-Piracy Services’, 31 March 2015.

56 On widening attacks, see Natalia Piskunova, ‘Pirates of Aden: A Threat Beyond Somalia's Shores?’, Central European Journal of International and Security (Vol. 9, No. 2, June 2015).

57 Navaltoday.com, ‘Pakistan Hosts CTF 150 Commander’, 12 December 2014, <http://navaltoday.com/2014/12/12/pakistan-hosts-ctf-150-commander/>, accessed 22 October 2015.

58 Harsh V Pant and Yogesh Joshi, ‘The American “Pivot” and the Indian Navy: It's Hedging All the Way’, Naval War College Review (Vol. 68, No. 1, Winter 2015), p. 60.

59 Mary Beth Nitkitin, ‘Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI)’, Congressional Research Service, RL34327, June 2012.

60 A Vinod Kumar, ‘India's Participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative: Issues in Perspective’, Strategic Analysis (Vol. 33, No. 5, July 2009).

61 Maria Abi-Habib and Adam Entous, ‘U.S. Widens Role in Saudi-Led Campaign against Houthi Rebels in Yemen’, Wall Street Journal, 13 April 2015; BBC News, ‘Yemen Conflict: US Boosts Arms Supplies for Saudi-Led Coalition’, 8 April 2015.

62 Andrew Dorman, Mike Lawrence Smith and Matthew Uttley, ‘Jointery and Combined Operations in an Expeditionary Era: Defining the Issues’, Defense Analysis (Vol. 14, No. 1, April 1998), p. 6.

63 HM Government, Securing Britain in an Age of Uncertainty: The Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR), Cm 7948 (London: The Stationery Office, October 2010).

64 President of the Republic, ‘The French White Paper on Defence and National Security’, English version, 2013, p. 21.

65 Shivshankar Menon, ‘Speech by National Security Advisor at IAFAC on “India in the 21st Century World”’, 12 February 2014.

66 The question of whether and how far India would support the US in a conflict with China was debated between the author and Australian academic Hugh White on the Lowy Institute's blog, The Interpreter, between 6 February and 13 March 2015. See Hugh White, ‘A Second Look at Obama's Visit’, The Interpreter, 6 February 2015; Shashank Joshi, ‘The US-India Convergence’, The Interpreter, 13 February 2015; Hugh White, ‘Obama's India Visit Reveals Weakness of US Position in Asia’, 16 February 2015; Shashank Joshi, ‘The Consequences of the Strengthening US-India Partnership are Still Uncertain’, The Interpreter, 10 March 2015; Hugh White, ‘Would India Go to War with China to Help America?’, The Interpreter, 13 March 2015.

67 Amit Baruah, ‘Only “Escort Duties” in Malacca Straits’, The Hindu, 23 April 2002.

68 George Perkovich, India's Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2002), pp. 240–41, 257–59, 283; P R Kumaraswamy, India's Israel Policy (New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2010), pp. 229–30; Sergey Radchenko, ‘India and the End of the Cold War’, in Artemy M Kalinovsky and Sergey Radchenko (eds), The End of the Cold War and The Third World: New Perspectives on Regional Conflict (Oxford: Routledge, 2011), p. 175.

69 Jonah Blank, Jennifer D P Moroney, Angel Rabasa, and Bonny Lin, Look East, Cross Black Waters: India's Interest in Southeast Asia (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2015), p. 10.

70 Sushant Singh, ‘Exercise Malabar: Japan Navy to Join India, US in Bay of Bengal’, Indian Express, 30 June 2015; Business Standard, ‘India, 16 Others Take Part in “Milan 2014” Naval Exercise’, Standard, 9 February 2014.

71 Shashank Joshi, ‘Malabar: Modi Government Misses an Opportunity as Annual Exercise Slumps’, The Interpreter, 9 October 2015.

72 Gurpreet S Khurana, ‘Malabar Naval Exercises: Trends and Tribulations’, Issue Brief, National Maritime Foundation, August 2014, pp. 1–2.

73 While there have been rumours of Chinese signals-intelligence facilities on the Coco Islands, one study concludes ‘there is minimal physical evidence to suggest that the facilities being developed … will be used to encircle India and support a PLA effort to conduct conventional war in South Asia’. See Christopher D Yung, ‘Chinese Overseas Basing Requirements for the Twenty-First Century’, in Peter A Dutton and Ryan D Martinson (eds), Beyond the Wall: Chinese Far Seas Operations (Newport, RI: US Naval War College, 2015), p. 58.

74 Ramachandra Guha, India after Gandhi: The History of the World's Largest Democracy, 1st ed. (New York, NY: Ecco, 2007), p. 588.

75 I K Gujral, Matters of Discretion: An Autobiography (New Delhi: Hay House, 2011), ch. 58.

76 Mohammed Ayoob, India and Southeast Asia: Indian Perceptions and Policies (London: Routledge, 1990), chs. 2–3; Sayan Majumdar, ‘“Bears” to “Blackjacks” – A Possibe Logical Progression?’, India Defence Consultants, 31 March 2006, <http://www.indiadefence.com/Tu-160.htm>, accessed 22 October 2015; Kunwar Rajendra Singh, Navies of South Asia (Delhi: Rupa & Co., 2002), p. 126.

77 Fair, Fighting to the End, pp. 154–73.

78 Pew Research Center, ‘Global Opposition to U.S. Surveillance and Drones, but Limited Harm to America's Image’, p. 38.

79 Ibid., p. 37.

80 Zach Warren ‘Afghanistan in 2014: A Survey of the Afghan People’, Asia Foundation, 2014, pp. 73–75; Larry Hanauer and Peter Chalk, India's and Pakistan's Strategies in Afghanistan: Implications for the United States and the Region (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2012), p. 23.

81 Rani D Mullen, ‘India's Soft Power’, in David M Malone, C Raja Mohan, and Srinath Raghavan (eds), Oxford Handbook of Indian Foreign Policy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015), p. 198.

82 Sunil Dasgupta and Stephen P Cohen, ‘Is India Ending its Strategic Restraint Doctrine?’, Washington Quarterly (Vol. 34, No. 2, Spring 2011).

83 Tanvi Madan, ‘Mr. Putin Goes to India: Five Reasons the Russian President Will Be Welcomed There’, Up Front, Brookings, 9 December 2014.

84 Shiv Aroor, ‘Army and Navy Plan to Set Up a Marine Brigade’, India Today, 9 June 2010.

85 Adam B Lowther and Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, ‘Building a Partnership between the United States and India: Exploring Airpower's Potential’, Air and Space Power Journal (March–April 2015), pp. 35–36.

86 Rory Medcalf and C Raja Mohan, ‘Responding to Indo-Pacific Rivalry: Australia, India and Middle Power Coalitions’, Analysis, Lowy Institute for International Policy, August 2014, pp. 1–2.

87 David Brewster, ‘Indian Strategic Thinking about the Indian Ocean: Striving Towards Strategic Leadership’, India Review (Vol. 14, No. 2, April 2015), p. 234. As Jonah Blank et al. note, ‘Southeast Asia sees India primarily as a security partner, while India primarily sees Southeast Asia as a trade partner’. Look East, Cross Black Waters: India's Interest in Southeast Asia, p. xxii.

88 Menon, ‘It's Time for India to Start Looking West Again’.

89 Rory Medcalf, ‘Facing the Future: India Views of the World Ahead’, India Poll 2013, Lowy Institute for International Policy and Australia India Institute, 2013, p. 7.

90 Business Standard, ‘India Needs to Decide on Net Security Provider Role: NSA’, Business Standard, 12 February 2014.

91 Dasgupta and Cohen, ‘Is India Ending its Strategic Restraint Doctrine?’.

92 David M Malone and Rohan Mukherjee, ‘Dilemmas of Sovereignty and Order: India and the UN Security Council’, Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu, Pratap Bhanu Mehta and Bruce Jones (eds), Shaping the Emerging World: India and the Multilateral Order (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2013).

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