Introduction

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Notes

1 Phrase attributed to Mark Twain.

2 See, for example, Joseph S Nye Jr, The Future of Power (New York, NY: Public Affairs, 2011); Edward Luce, ‘The Changing of the Global Economic Guard’, The Atlantic, 29 April 2017.

3 Kurt M Campbell, The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia (New York, NY: Twelve Books, 2016); Luis Simón, ‘Understanding US Retrenchment in Europe’, Survival: Global Politics and Strategy (Vol. 57, No. 2, April/May 2015); Christopher Layne, ‘America’s Middle East Grand Strategy After Iraq: The Moment for Offshore Balancing Has Arrived’, Review of International Studies (Vol. 35, No. 1, January 2009).

4 On the centrality of Europe to post-war US strategy see John Lewis Gaddis, We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998). On the centrality of the US to Europe’s post-war geopolitical and security architecture see Geir Lundestad, “Empire” by Integration: The United States and European Integration, 1945–1997 (New York, NY and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998).

5 G John Ikenberry, ‘The Plot Against American Foreign Policy: Can the Liberal Order Survive?’, Foreign Affairs (May/June 2017); Peter Dombrowski and Simon Reich, ‘Does Donald Trump have a Grand Strategy?’, International Affairs (Vol. 93, No. 5, 2017).

6 Campbell, The Pivot.

7 See, for example, Michael G Roskin, ‘The New Cold War’, Parameters (Vol. 44, No. 1, 2014).

8 See, for example, Josef Janning and Almut Möller, ‘Leading from the Centre: Germany’s New Role in Europe’, Policy Brief, European Council on Foreign Relations, 13 July 2016.

9 Elizabeth Pond, ‘Germany in the New Europe’, Foreign Affairs (Vol. 71, No. 2, 1992).

10 Stephen F Szabo, Parting Ways: The Crisis in German-American Relations (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2004).

11 See Simon Bulmer and William E Paterson, ‘Germany and the European Union: from “Tamed Power” to Normalized Power?’, International Affairs (Vol. 86, No. 5, 2010); Ulrich Speck, ‘German Power and the Ukraine Conflict’, Carnegie Europe, 26 March 2015.

12 See, for example, Radoslaw Sikorski, ‘I Fear Germany’s Power Less than her Inactivity’, Financial Times, 28 November 2011.

13 Edward Lucas, The New Cold War: Putin’s Russia and the Threat to the West (New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008).

14 See, for example, Alexander Lanoszka, ‘Russian Hybrid Warfare and Extended Deterrence in Eastern Europe’, International Affairs (Vol. 92, No. 1, 2016).

15 Diego A Ruiz Palmer, ‘Back to the Future? Russia’s Hybrid Warfare, Revolutions in Military Affairs, and Cold War Comparisons’, Research Paper No. 120, NATO Defense College, October 2015.

16 Luis Simón, ‘Balancing Priorities in America’s European Strategy’, Parameters (Vol. 46, No. 1, 2016). On the rise of military spending in other regions relative to the West, see International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2017 (Abingdon: Routledge, 2017), pp. 19–26.

17 Campbell, The Pivot; Carnes Lord and Andrew S Erickson (eds), Rebalancing U.S. Forces: Basing and Forward Presence in the Asia-Pacific (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2014).

18 See, for example, Paul Hockenos, ‘Germany Has an Arrogance Problem’, Foreign Policy, 27 April 2017; John Nichols, ‘Donald Trump is Picking a Fight with Germany – and it Will Not End Well’, The Nation, 30 May 2017.

19 Paul Lever, Berlin Rules: Europe and the German Way (New York, NY and London: IB Tauris, 2017).

20 Robert D Kaplan, ‘Eurasia’s Coming Anarchy: The Risks of Chinese and Russian Weakness’, Foreign Affairs (Vol. 95, No. 2, 2016); Eugene B Rumer and Celeste A Wallander, ‘Russia: Power in Weakness?’, Washington Quarterly (Vol. 27, No. 1, 2003).

21 See Jakub J Grygiel and A Wess Mitchell, The Unquiet Frontier: Rising Rivals, Vulnerable Allies, and the Crisis of American Power (Princeton, NJ and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2016).