Predicting and preventing radicalisation: an alternative approach to suicide terrorism in Europe

ABSTRACT

Suicidal acts of terrorism conducted by lone actors independently of overseas command and control networks currently dominate the European landscape. Intelligence suggests from a population of fifty-two attackers between 2012 and 2017, at least 75% had a history of chronic substance abuse. Almost exclusively, Muslims do not engage in 12-step recovery programmes like Alcoholics Anonymous. We hypothesize that as both an ideology and agent of socialization, Islamic fundamentalism provides a structurally equivalent alternative. Yet, it is a programme that inadvertently directs a minority of vulnerable men along a pathway towards isolation, obsession, resentment and finally martyrdom.

Acknowledgements

The author wishes to express his sincere appreciation to the anonymous members of Alcoholics Anonymous, Cocaine Anonymous and Narcotics Anonymous who shared their experience of recovery from addiction with the author and, also, professor Richard Aldrich for his continued and much appreciated direction and patient review of drafts.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. Pantucci, “Countering Lone-Actor Terrorism,” 3–25.

2. “Who are the new Jihadis?” (Guardian Online, April 13, 2017).

3. In this article, we use the terms: “Islamic fundamentalism” and “Islamic fundamentalist”, as short hand to describe the ideology espoused by and the fellowship of likeminded men and women who, having undertaken a process of radicalisation (detailed later in this paper), share a set of religio-political beliefs about world order and the role of Islam within it. From this set of individuals (roughly 20,000 across Europe), a small minority have and continue to carry out radical action. By radical action, we are referring to activity that constitutes a criminal offence contrary to anti-terrorism legislation enacted by the UK parliament since 2000. For example, the act of being a ‘foreign fighter’. What Islamic fundamentalists refer to as the pursuit of Jihad, prosecutors consider to be training for terrorism purposes contrary to Section 6 of the terrorism act 2006. According to UK government figures, since 2001, there have been less than 1000 convictions under anti-terrorism legislation. This study has focused on the even smaller subset of Islamic fundamentalists who carry out an act of terrorism in which it is reasonable to assume the outcome will be either death or a life-changing period of incarnation. We suggest there have been roughly 50 such individuals across Europe between 2012 and 2017. Reflecting on the fact that 50 represent the entire population of men who have carried out life-changing acts of terrorism 2012–2017, there is good reason to use qualitative approaches to really dig deep within the life stores of each of these men.

4. “How many people are killed by terrorist attacks in the UK?” (The Telegraph Online, October 11, 2017).

5. Kirby, “The London Bombers as Self-Starters,” 415–428.

6. “Who are Britain’s Jihadists?” (BBC News Online, July 7, 2017).

7. Gilmore. “MI5 Chief”.

8. Anderson, Independent Reviewer for Counter Terrorism. 2017. “Report on MI5 and police reviews”.

9. Allen, “Terrorism in Great Britain”.

10. Crenshaw, “Explaining Suicide Terrorism,” 133–162.

11. For a comprehensive review of literature on radicalisation, see: Veldhuis and Staun, Islamist Radicalisation: A Root Cause Model.

12. Sageman, “Bunch of Guys Thesis,” 730–751.

13. This article draws upon a 14-month observational study into the recognised disease of addiction along with the 12-step Christian fundamentalist programme of recovery. As part of the field work, the author visited over 200 public meetings organised by Alcoholics Anonymous (AA), Cocaine Anonymous (CA) and Narcotics Anonymous (NA) across London and the South East. Each meeting began with a recovered addict giving testimony on his childhood, time in active addiction, his experience of recovery and finally what life is like for him or her today. Through a process of informal socialisation, the author conducted unstructured interviews with addicts and alcoholics at every stage of the recovery process. Periods of sobriety ranged from a few hours to 52 years. Complementing this anthropological approach, the author also spent significant time studying both medical research and recovery-based literature including the core text book of AA which provides exact instructions on how to recover from the illness of addiction one day at a time. The first 140 pages contain these instructions which have remained unaltered since 1939; Alcoholics Anonymous, Alcoholics Anonymous: Big book reference edition.

14. ASAM, “Public Policy Statement”.

15. HM Government, Ministry of Justice, Court Transcript, 1579

16. “Paris attacks suicide bomber drank, smoked and ran drugs den” (The Telegraph Online, November 16, 2015).

17. “Attack on Nice: Who was Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel?” (BBC News Online, August 19, 2016)

18. “Abedi: How Manchester attacker turned from cannabis-smoking dropout to Isis suicide bomber” (Independent Online, May 24, 2017).

19. “Were the Mumbai Terrorists Fuelled by Coke?” (Time Magazine, December 5, 2008).

20. Townsend, “Suicide terrorists, are they suicidal?” 35–49.

21. Gambetta, Making Sense of Suicide Missions.

22. “Letter from Gaza: An Arsenal of Believers” (The New Yorker, November 19, 2001).

23. See note 10 above.

24. Pedahzur, Root Causes of Suicide Terrorism.

25. Psychologist Clark McCauley challenges the work of Adam Lankford, arguing that his sample of 40 suicide terrorists is statistically insignificant. See McCauley, “How Many Suicide terrorists are suicidal?” 373–374. At a purely neurological level, the brain of the suicide terrorist must be convinced to perform an action that is fundamentally at odds with his or her innate sense of survival. What evidence do we have that a person can override such basic programming except in cases of severe mental disorder? What evidence do we have that persons without a history of mental health disorders commit suicide? The answer is very little if at all. Consequently, in the absence of scientifically rigorous evidence to the contrary, is it not the logical assumption that a suicide terrorist was indeed suicidal or at the very least had a history of suicidal ideation that made him vulnerable to the process of radicalisation? Offering a contribution to this debate, of the 52 suicide terrorists reviewed in this study, we were able to find evidence of substance abuse in at least 75 per cent of cases. This ranged from severe alcohol abuse to the use of hard drugs including crack cocaine, heroin and powder cocaine. Strikingly, of the hundreds of addicts who testified about their experiences of substance abuse, over 90 per cent reported a history of suicide ideation occurring throughout their lives. Put simply, substance abuse and suicide are strongly correlated. Consequently, our theory that a minority of drug-addicted Islamic fundamentalists are mostly responsible for the second wave of terrorism across Europe is entirely plausible, indeed logical if these men disconnected from the fellowship that has been largely responsible for a period of relative stability in their lives.

26. Lankford, “Could Suicide Terrorists actually be Suicidal,” 337–366.

27. See note 26 above.

28. Merari, “Personality Characteristics of Suicide Bombers and Organisers of Suicide Attacks,” 87–101.

29. Sheehan, “Are Suicide Terrorists Suicidal?” 80–92.

30. Stern, Terror in the Name of God.

31. Our central argument is that escape from addiction attracts individuals to the fellowship of Islamic fundamentalists. Ideas of a pure Islamic caliphate provide the source material necessary to build a fundamentalist identity. Western foreign policy challenges that identity which causes resentment amongst members of the fellowship. Consequently, a minority react violently to protect the system they credit with providing their salvation from addiction. See Khosrokhavar, Suicide Bombers & Khosrokhavar, “The psychology of the global Jihadists”.

32. Cottee, “Jihadism as a Subcultural Response to Social Strain & See note 12 above.

33. HM Government, Office for National Statistics, “Deaths related to drug poisoning in England and Wales”.

34. Charlton, “Suicide deaths in England and Wales,” 34–42.

35. Pierce-James, “Suicide and mortality amongst heroin addicts in Britain,” 391–393.

36. Oyefeso, “Suicide among drug addicts in the UK,” 277–282.

37. Schneider, “Substance use disorders and risk for completed suicide,” 303–316.

38. Roy, “Characteristics of cocaine dependent patients who attempt suicide,” 46–51.

39. See note 14 above.

40. See note 13 above.

41. Around 52 unique fellowships around the world are based on the 12-step programme of recovery including those aimed at recovery from addiction to alcohol, sex, drugs, food, gambling, nicotine, etc.

42. See note 13 above.

43. Addicts testify that relief from the mental obsession occurs only when they engage in their specific drug or activity of choice be it alcohol, marijuana, cocaine, cannabis, gambling, over eating or pornography. For some addicts, giving up the fight and getting a hit may feel like the only way to escape from a barrage of suicidal thoughts that are widely associated with the mental obsession; See note 13 above.

44. The problem is that addicts are often in denial about the extent of their drug and alcohol problems, and therefore, doctors are rarely to blame for misdiagnosis. See note 13 above.

45. According to a 1973 study, the personality of an addict is characterised as emotionally unstable, impulsive, irritable, hostile and psychopathic. See overall, “MMPI personality patterns of alcoholics and narcotic addicts,” 104–111.

46. Individuals with avoidant personalities struggle with their emotions and struggle to maintain personal relationships; See note 13 above.

47. In Robert Louis Stevenson’s 1886 Scottish novel, the protagonist, Dr Henry Jekyll, struggles to suppress a second and dark personality within himself named Mr. Hyde.

48. See note 14 above.

49. ibid.

50. ibid.

51. ibid.

52. “Terror attacker Khalid Masood had sex with prostitutes and binged on Class A drugs” (The Independent Online, March 27, 2017).

53. Aged 19, Elms received his first conviction for criminal damage. He went on to receive a string of convictions over the next 20 years; “First picture of Khalid Masood reveals how he went from football-loving teenager to London attacker” (Telegraph Online, March 24, 2017).

54. See note 52 above.

55. “Terror police to focus on older suspects in wake of attack on Westminster” (Telegraph Online, March 24, 2017).

56. “Anis Amri habitually took drugs before Berlin attack, say Italian prosecutors” (DW Online, November 30, 2017).

57. “Berlin terror attack: Tunisian suspect was investigated over earlier terror plot” (Telegraph Online, December 22, 2016).

58. “Berlin Attack: Tunisian Suspect’s Father Says his Son Was Radicalized in Italian Prison” (Newsweek, December 22, 2016).

59. “Autopsy on Berlin attacker Anis Amri identifies regular use of both cocaine and hashish” (The Independent Online, March 4, 2017).

60. “Khuram Butt was on bail at time of attack” (The Times Online, June 8, 2017).

61. “The Striking Similarities Between the London Bridge Attackers and Other Terrorists - That Have Nothing to Do with Islam” (Huffington Post, June 5, 2017).

62. “Revealed: how police arrested ‘hot-head’ terrorist six months before London Bridge massacre - but let him go with a caution” (The Telegraph Online, June 6, 2017).

63. “Lee Rigby killers: from quiet Christians to Islamist murderers” (The Telegraph Online, December 1, 2017).

64. “Woolwich murder: what drove two men to kill a soldier in the street?” (Guardian Online, December 19, 2013).

65. Pantucci, “A Death in Woolwich,” 22–30.

66. “Woolwich killers: lost boys went from drugs and gangs to radical Islam” (The Times Online, December 1, 2017); Discussions between the author and recovered addicts identified that the term ‘drugs den’ almost exclusively refers to locations where either crack cocaine or heroin is consumed

67. “Lee Rigby murder: How killers Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale became ultra-violent radicals” (The Independent Online, December 19, 2013).

68. “Paris airport attacker ‘extremely violent’ criminal” (Al-Jazeera, March 19, 2017).

69. “Paris airport suspect named as Ziyed Ben Belgacem: What do we know about him?” (Express Online, March 18, 2017).

70. “My son was not a terrorist” (Express Online, March 19, 2017).

71. “Paris Orly airport shooting: Attacker took cocaine and smoked cannabis before taking soldier hostage” (Independent Online, March 20, 2017).

72. From public sources, we identified that of the 52 individuals who carried out an act of life-changing terrorism between 2012 and 2017, at least 30 had criminal convictions for violent offences. Therefore, in terms of policy recommendations, we suggest that security services should consider both substance abuse and a history of violence when carrying out a risk assessment of individuals returning from Syria.

73. ‘Selfishness and Self-centredness! That, we think, is the root of our troubles’, see note 13 above, 62.

74. In recovery terminology, this is known as having a “spiritual awakening” or “psychic change”.

75. ‘The unselfishness of these men as we have come to know them, the entire absence of profit motive, and their community spirit, is indeed inspiring’. See note 13 above, xxvii.

76. The consensus from long-term members of AA and NA who had experience of rehabilitation clinics, national conventions and meetings across the UK was that almost exclusively Muslims do not participate in 12-step recovery programmes. See note 13 above.

77. “Drug addiction is surging among Asian community” (Independent Online, January 1, 2000).

78. Authors interview with an experienced member of Cocaine Anonymous in Luton, October 9, 2017. By his own admission, he is one of only a handful of individuals in the Muslim community of Luton who seek recovery from addiction via the 12-step programme; See note 13 above.

79. See note 13 above.

80. If addiction is blind to colour, race and religion but Muslims by and large do not engage in the 12-step programme recovery, how do we account for the 14 years of sobriety enjoyed by Khalid Masood between 2003 and 2017? Does relapse explain his sudden decision to carry out suicide terrorism? From toxicology reports, we know that Khalid Masood was addicted to steroids, so much so that he injected them the day before the attack.

81. Tajfel, “An integrative theory of intergroup conflict”.

82. “Profiles: Mohammed Hamid and his followers” (The Guardian Online, February 26, 2008).

83. “Westminster attacker had record of increasingly violent attacks” (The Guardian Online, May 15, 2017).

84. “Woolwich killing: what made two gang members turn to Jihad?” (The Observer, May 26, 2013).

85. “Khuram Butt was on bail at time of attack” (The Times Online, June 8, 2017).

86. See note 13 above.

87. Telephone Interview with Amardeep Bassey, freelance journalist and former reporter for the Birmingham Mail. Since 2009, Amardeep has reported extensively on individuals convicted of terrorism offences in the UK.

88. At the heart of this puzzle is the difficulty of knowing with any accuracy, who is involved in the fundamentalist movement at any given time and the true nature of their beliefs. More so, due to group think and shared narratives, we must treat with great caution, any claims to know exactly why a person joins the movement in the first place. Especially, if the person giving testimony is now a ‘reformed jihadist’ with an interest in publishing books and working the speaker circuit. Methodologically, we suggest the most fruitful approach to the study of radicalisation and suicide terrorism is through strict analysis of biographical data and inference. For example, this study has identified that at least 75 per cent of men responsible for suicide terrorism in Europe between 2012 and 2017 had a history of substance abuse. Through induction, if we can show that what is true for one addict is true for all addicts and that addiction acts on the mind independently of political ideology, we can discover the characteristics and predict the behaviour of suicide bombers by studying the wider (more accessible) population of addicts. Whatever policy of intervention diverts men from substance abuse, could potentially divert future suicide terrorists away from radicalisation.

89. We have coined the term “life-changing terrorist attack” to refer to all terrorist attacks in which the perpetrator expects to either die in the process or spend the rest of his life in prison.

90. Malthaner and Waldmann, “The Radical Milieu,” 979–998.

91. Based on interviews with addicts, successful recovery depends on the willingness of the individual to engage in the programme. If voluntary, success is perhaps 20 per cent . Alternatively, if forced by friends, family or an employee, success is extremely rare.

92. Step 1 of radicalisation of Khalid Masood (identification with an existing member) appears to have occurred around 2004 when he first engaged with two members of Al-Muhajiroun in Crawley. By this point, Adrian Elms (not yet Khalid Masood) was already reading the Quran – the Imam of HMP Lewes gave it to him in 2003. Through his new friends, Waheed Mahmood and Waheed Majeed, Elms began Step 2 (socialising with existing members of Islamic fundamentalist movement), specifically, other associates of Al-Muhajiroun. By 2005, Adrian Elms had accepted fundamentalism as a means of recovery from addiction (Step 3). He changed his name, married a Muslim woman and travelled to Saudi Arabia to teach English. From this point forward, extreme violence and class A substance abuse ended. Steps 4 and 5, disconnection from mainstream society and growth within the fellowship then occurred gradually over the next 10 years. On his return from a second period of teaching English in Saudi Arabia, Masood resided in Luton at a time when Al-Muhajiroun was heavily active in the town. Suggesting continued growth within the fellowship, between February 2010 and October 2012, Masood was the subject of investigation by the UK Security Service MI5. For over 10 years, Masood remained stable and abstinent from both alcohol and crack cocaine. In December 2016, he attempted to return to Saudi Arabia. It appears that whenever he experienced difficulties in his personal life, Masood would flee overseas to the one place where he was relatively safe from the danger of relapse. Between December 2016 and March 2017, Masood sold his car and made efforts to say goodbye to members of his family. However, as a likely consequence of his involvement with ALM, authorities declined his work visa. Step 6, intensification leading to suicide terrorism, then occurred within a matter of weeks. On 9 March 2018, seemingly in response to the decline of his visa, Masood sent himself an email with the subject line, ‘retaliation’. At this time, he was completely isolated which meant he was not engaged in the fundamentalist programme of recovery and would therefore have become depressed and suicidal within a matter of weeks. Thirteen days later, he carried out the Westminster bridge attack. In the days leading up to the event, he had become obsessed with watching violent ISIS propaganda and injecting anabolic steroids.

93. Of interest, the average time between an addict ceasing to engage in the 12-step programme of recovery and the point where he will again experience the mental obsession and become psychologically unwell is two weeks.

94. The twelfth step of the AA 12-step programme of recovery states: ‘having had a spiritual awakening, we then sought to carry this message to the still suffering alcoholic’. For example, in a work environment, a person may be aware that a friend or colleague is struggling with a drink or drug problem. This person will approach the friend as someone who has recovered from alcoholism and will proceed to share their experience usually over coffee

95. The men responsible for the 2003 fertilizer plot, July 2005 London bombings and the 2006 liquid bomb plot were largely homogenous in respect of education, employment and family status.

96. While the newcomer is unlikely to have any understanding of God at this stage, a willingness to learn more is all that is necessary. Questions asked at this stage are likely to be more specific than in Step 1 and may include: ‘On a daily basis, what activities do men participate in to avoid the kind of problems associated with addiction’, ‘How do they avoid taking that first drink or that first drug’? Like identification, the socialisation step is absent of any kind of language or behaviour that would fall foul of anti-terrorism laws. See Table 1 for a detailed list of the activities that constitute the programme of action undertaken by members of the fellowship of Islamic fundamentalists. Members of AA testify that within weeks of disconnecting from the fellowship and the programme of action, they experience a return of the mental obsession. It is reasonable to theorize that men who engage in Islamic fundamentalism for a similar purpose, would be equally impacted by a failure to consistently engage in comparable activities.

97. “Woolwich killing: what made two gang members turn to Jihad?” (The Observer, May 26, 2013).

98. In its place, the newcomer will spend much of their time socialising with other members of the fellowship. Attendance at events that might have been a weekly or monthly occurrence during Step 2 will become weekly if not daily. To ensure successful integration, the newcomer will rely heavily on advice from their sponsor with whom they will have grown particularly close.

99. In all six cases examined in this study, there is open source evidence to suggest that each man underwent a dramatic change in personality following their decision to engage in the fellowship of Islamic fundamentalists

100. Recovering addicts are encouraged to remain in fit spiritual condition by engaging in selfless activities daily; ‘Selfishness and Self-centredness! That, we think, is the root of our troubles…..when the spiritual malady is overcome, we straighten out physical and mentally’. See note 13 above, 62.

101. During the trial, prosecutors revealed that police had discovered a book entitled Extreme Islam at the home of Adebolajo’s father; “Woolwich: How did Michael Adebolajo become a killer?” (BBC Online, December 19, 2013).

102. Americans Chris Raymer, Chuck Chamberline and Mark Houston are well-known, highly respected, long-term sober AA circuit speakers who preach a strict fundamentalist programme of recovery in which God is at the heart of the 12-step programme

103. Police has linked sermons by Anwar Al-Awlaki to several terrorism cases across Europe since 2005 including the stabbing of UK MP Stephen Timms and the killing of British Soldier Lee Rigby. In the United States, around 2008, Awlaki is alleged to have radicalised Palestinian–American Major Nidal Hassan through a series of email conversations. Less than a year later, Hassan carried out the Ford Hood massacre.

104. Members of AA who commit suicide without first relapsing are presumed to have been living as “dry drunks”. This term generally refers to alcoholics who although physically sober, are struggling to cope with the mental obsession due to their failure to work the 12-step programme. As one might expect, manic depression and suicide ideation is significantly high amongst this subset of the fellowship.

105. Oliver, The Road to Martyrs’ Square, 31.

106. ‘From late 2015 to early 2016, there was no further indication of attack-planning, and Khuram Butt appeared to be disengaging from former associates in ALM’ – stated by David Anderson QC in his independent assessment of MI5 and police internal reviews concerning the terrorist attacks in London and Manchester in March and June 2017, respectively.

107. “London Bomber: Text in Full” (BBC News Online, September 1, 2005).

108. Choudhury and Fenwick, “The impact of counter-terrorism measures on Muslim communities”.

109. An Islamic version of the 12-step programme of recovery from alcoholism is currently running in a handful of cities across the United States. For more details, see http://www.millatiislami.org/; Starting in 2017, the UK Government Office for Security and Counter Terrorism (OSCT) began funding a counter radicalization project in Birmingham specifically aimed at Muslims struggling with substance abuse.

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Lewis Herrington

Lewis Herrington is a lecturer in Politics and International Relations at the University of Loughborough in the United Kingdom. He has published widely on intelligence and radicalisation and appears regularly on mainstream news channels following acts of terrorism within Europe.