The impact of climate change on the Palestinian sectoral reallocation of labor

ABSTRACT

The research leverages yearly variations in climate variables, such as rainfall and temperature, across the West Bank from 1999 to 2018 to assess their influence on individuals’ decisions to stay in the agricultural sector. The main findings suggest that an increase in rainfall in the previous year is associated with a higher proportion of workers in the agricultural sector, especially in regions where agriculture is the primary economic activity. Temperature variation is also an important factor. An increase in the maximum temperature will generally have a negative effect on the supply of labor in the agricultural sector, while an increase in the minimum temperature may have a positive effect. However, this effect varies across different regions of the West Bank, reflecting the diverse agricultural practices and irrigation methods employed. The study also examines two potential mechanisms through which climate change affects labor decisions: agricultural labor migration to the Israeli labor market and how climate shocks affect agricultural wages.

KEYWORDS:

• Labor supply
• climate change, agriculture
• West bank

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• J01
• J43
• Q54

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. In the Jenin District, for example, the cultivation of olives and the production of olive oil, along with almonds, citrus fruits, grapes, and various vegetables, are prominent due to the suitability of rain-fed methods. Similarly, in Tulkarm District, where water resources have historically been limited, the emphasis is on olives, citrus fruits, and vegetables, including tomatoes and cucumbers. These constraints have, in essence, necessitated a diverse array of rain-fed agricultural products across various districts in Palestine, each tailored to the local conditions and resources available.

2. Climate change refers to long-term alterations in the typical patterns of temperature, precipitation, and other atmospheric conditions within the West Bank region, resulting from various natural and anthropogenic factors. These changes encompass both increasing temperatures and shifts in rainfall patterns, impacting the agricultural sector and subsequently influencing the labor allocation decisions of individuals in the area.

3. Agriculture serves as a means to reduce reliance on the Israeli labor market, offering a local employment resource during periods of closure and heightened political instability (Mansour 2010).

4. Agro-ecosystems refer to the agricultural ecosystems where various elements, such as crops, livestock, and the surrounding environment, interact and function as an integrated ecological system. These systems encompass both the cultivated components, like crops and livestock, as well as the non-cultivated elements, such as soil, water, and biodiversity, which collectively influence agricultural production and sustainability (Altieri 2002).

5. Agro-biodiversity, short for agricultural biodiversity, encompasses the variety and variability of plants, animals, and microorganisms that are essential for food production within agricultural systems. It includes a wide range of crop species, livestock breeds, and other organisms relevant to agriculture. Agro-biodiversity is crucial for ensuring resilience in agriculture, adapting to changing environmental conditions, and maintaining the genetic resources necessary for sustainable food production (Bassignana et al. 2022).

6. Rising temperatures are anticipated to lead to a reduction in soil carbon levels due to increased evaporation and plant transpiration, ultimately influencing the cycling rates of organic matter and contributing to heightened soil salinity (Verner, Ashwill, and Wilby 2013).

7. A decrease in temperatures can trigger changes in plants, such as dormancy and vernalization, where some plant species require cold temperatures to end dormancy or initiate flowering (Heide and Sønsteby 2011; Horvath 2009). This process, called vernalization, is vital in the life cycles of certain plants, including various fruit trees and winter crops (Amasino 2005).

8. Certain plant species may expand into new habitats as minimum temperatures rise (Bradley, Wilcove, and Oppenheimer 2010). Elevated minimum temperatures can also slightly increase plant metabolic rates, benefiting processes like nutrient uptake and photosynthesis when they stay within the plant’s optimal range (Hussain et al. 2019; Whelehan et al. 2022).

9. The per capita water consumption in Israel dwarfs that of Palestinians, surpassing it by at least fourfold, with certain settlements in the West Bank consuming an astonishing 21 times more water per capita than neighboring Palestinian communities (Al-Haq and EWASH 2011).

10. Israel’s per capita domestic water consumption stands at nearly 350 liters per day (Mimi and Jamous 2010). The World Health Organization’s minimum guideline for daily water intake to fulfill essential human consumption and hygiene requirements is 100 liters per individual per day (Chenoweth et al. 2013; World Health Organization 2022).

11. Commonly known as ‘Oslo II’, the Interim Agreement was signed on September 28, 1995, as a follow-up to the Oslo Accords of 1993. The Water Agreement (Annex 3, Annex 1, Article 40), specifies how the parties are to act in the field of water in the West Bank. This agreement established the Joint Water Committee. The committee was originally intended to operate for only five years, but it still exists.

12. There is a lack of equity in water allocation between Palestinians in the West Bank and Israelis in favor of Israeli settlements, according to many UN reports (Amaso and Allen 2020; OHCHR 2013; United Nations 1980).

13. Area A is under Palestinian civil and security control in major cities, Area B grants civil control but shared security with Israel, and Area C is primarily under full Israeli civil and security control (World Bank 2014). For more information, see www.btselem.org/topic/Area_c

14. Palestinian farmers lack insurance coverage to mitigate financial losses resulting from attacks by Israeli settlers and soldiers, as well as damages caused by natural hazards like climate change impacts and droughts (Khalidi and Taghdisi-Rad 2009; OCHA 2023; Salem 2019)

15. For a few missing years’ data in specific districts such as Saflit and Tulkarm, estimates were derived from Israeli settlements’ stations in each district, provided by the Israeli Meteorological services database: https://ims.gov.il/en/data_gov

16. The Palestinian territory, in the context of this study, refers to the West Bank area. It’s important to note that some sources treat the entire West Bank as a single unit when examining climate change due to the limited data granularity at a more localized level. See:

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jscejhe/76/2/76_I_37/_article/-char/ja/

https://www.mdpi.com/2073–4433/14/9/1361

https://www.mdpi.com/2073–4441/15/6/1023

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0453-3

17. According to the Palestinian Environmental Quality Authority Report (2016), the estimated loss in agricultural season 2007/2008 in rain-fed crops due to drought and frost was the highest in olives crops ($60.7 million) followed by grape crops (14.1 million US$), then fruits ($10.7 million), and finally, wheat and fodder crops, ($6.9 million and $4.5 million respectively). For further details see (Tippmann and Baroni 2016, 17).

18. Citrus is a tropical and subtropical crop, and can grow in high-temperature zones (Abobatta 2019).

19. Table A2 in the appendix provides a comprehensive presentation of the observed characteristics of individuals who are not in the labor force.

20. The main results presented in this analysis do not account for work in Israel. However, it is important to acknowledge that work in Israel, particularly in the agricultural sector, can serve as a significant mechanism that influences the labor dynamics within the West Bank.

21. These crops are highly sensitive to frost (Smithers et al. 2016).

Additional information

Funding

The work was supported by the Open Society University Network (OSUN) and the Talloires Network Engaged Research [OSUN Faculty Research Grants (2022-2023)].