Affective forecasting and self-rated symptoms of depression, anxiety, and hypomania: Evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias

Abstract

Emerging research has examined individual differences in affective forecasting; however, we are aware of no published study to date linking psychopathology symptoms to affective forecasting problems. Pitting cognitive theory against depressive realism theory, we examined whether dysphoria was associated with negatively biased affective forecasts or greater accuracy. Participants (n=325) supplied predicted and actual emotional reactions for three days surrounding an emotionally evocative relational event, Valentine's Day. Predictions were made a month prior to the holiday. Consistent with cognitive theory, we found evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias—the tendency of individuals in dysphoric states to overpredict negative emotional reactions to future events. The dysphoric forecasting bias was robust across ratings of positive and negative affect, forecasts for pleasant and unpleasant scenarios, continuous and categorical operationalisations of dysphoria, and three time points of observation. Similar biases were not observed in analyses examining the independent effects of anxiety and hypomania. Findings provide empirical evidence for the long-assumed influence of depressive symptoms on future expectations. The present investigation has implications for affective forecasting studies examining information-processing constructs, decision making, and broader domains of psychopathology.

Keywords:

• Affective forecasting
• Depression
• Dysphoria
• Anxiety
• Hypomania
• Impact bias

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by T32MH018911, K08AG031328, and K24MH072712 from the United States Department of Health and Human Services, and the Leonard F. Salzman Award from the Department of Psychiatry, University of Rochester Medical Center.

Notes

¹Residualised difference scores are the preferable option for calculating affective forecasting bias in this context (Cohen et al., 2003; Hand & Taylor, 1987). If bias were calculated using simple difference scores, the correlation between dysphoria and bias on the composite mood scale would be r = .35, p < .001, instead of r = .44, p < .001.

²If bias were calculated using simple difference scores, this effect for the composite mood scale would be d = 0.47, t(323) = 2.45, p = .01.