Managing climate change scenarios for societal impact studies

Abstract

Dealing with the potential consequences of climate change on society requires scenarios that accurately project future climate. Uncertainties about future greenhouse gas emissions, climate sensitivity to radiative forcing, and limits to simulating a complex system constrain this objective. This paper reviews literature outlining the inherent challenges of creating future climate scenarios from general circulation models; it examines methods used to improve their interpretation and use; and it explores approaches taken to recognize and address uncertainty when investigating interactions between climate and society.

Keywords:

• climate scenarios
• climate models
• climate impacts
• adaptation

Acknowledgments

I wish to thank Kirstin Dow for helpful conversations, Aashka Patel for literature searching and Karen Beidel and Kim Rodgers for editorial assistance.