Modeling Disaster: The Failure of the Management of the New England Groundfish Industry

Abstract

Most of the world's marine fisheries are overexploited or endangered, including the Gulf of Maine groundfish fishery, once one of the world's most prolific. After 35 years of management, groundfish stock sizes and catches are lower than when management began. We argue that in New England, the groundfishing industry is caught in a prisoner's dilemma caused by a large number of interactive social, political, and economic variables. These factors have (1) motivated fishermen to oppose the rules promulgated by the government (which we call the “harvest game”) and (2) lowered the benefits of investing in rules to conserve fish stocks (which we call the “rule game”). In both games, fishermen are motivated to play their dominant strategy to the detriment of the industry, conservation, and fish stocks. We suggest that the dilemma will only be solved by a change in the culture of the industry that would lead to support for a conservation ethic. Unfortunately, the current institutional framework of management does not support the development of such an ethic. Rational-choice theory and concepts from evolutionary game theory add to our understanding of the dilemma facing those concerned with groundfish management in this region.

Received March 3, 2010; accepted June 16, 2011

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Research conducted in 1978 was supported by grant AER 77-06018 from the National Science Foundation to J.M.A. (principal investigator [PI]) for the project “University of Rhode Island–University of Maine Study of Social and Cultural Aspects of Fisheries Management Under Extended Jurisdiction.” The 2008 research was supported by grant BCS-0821968 from the National Science Foundation to J.M.A. (PI) for the project “Evolution of Norms and Conservation Rules in Two Fisheries.” The authors thank the hundreds of fishermen, members of the NEFMC, and state and federal agency personnel who kindly agreed to be interviewed in 1978 and 2008. We also thank Michelle Martin, who gathered a lot of the archival data regarding the history of groundfish regulations; Barbara Harrity, who did final copyediting; and Ann Acheson, who edited and commented on several drafts.