Not So Lonely at the Top: Billboard #1s and a New Methodology for Comparing Records, 1958–75

Abstract

A Microsoft Excel database was constructed of the weekly entries in the Billboard Hot 100^® from its appearance in 4 August 1958 through the lifecycle of all records entering the chart before 31 December 1975. The distribution of peak position of records in this era is shown, including the large percentage of #1s; more records peak at #1 than at any other rank. The number of records appearing annually and, consequently, the average chart time varies markedly over the period. The database is also used to compare previously published chart performance methodologies, all of which depend upon chart lifetime. A new system, normalizing individual record score against an internal standard of contemporaneous records, mitigates the effect of the varying average chart lifetime over the period. Thus, it allows improved comparison of chart performance over time, and near consensus on the 20 strongest-charting records of the chosen era.

Acknowledgements

Billboard Hot 100 data is used by permission: © 2014, Prometheus Global Media, 108599:214AT. Thanks to Pauline Hesbacher for a discussion of her husband's work. Thanks to Bruce Elrod/Cashbox Magazine, Joel Whitburn/Record Research, James Quirin and Barry Cohen/Chartmasters, and Howard Drake/MusicVF for permission to analyze and apply their data or ranking methodologies and to Arlene Hawes Petersen/Hawes Publications for New York Times Best Seller Lists.

Particular thanks to Dann Isbell for helpful conversations on chartology, and instruction on and permission to use his “Ranking the ’60s” system. And thanks to James D. Carroll, whose library and interest in this era made assembly of the database possible.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

^[1] This leverage of the charts pales compared to the outright manipulation of the industry during the independent promoters scandal, c. 1980 (see Dannen).

^[2] In fact, after the first three weeks of the Hot 100, there was only one tie: two #100s on 7 March 1960.

^[3] The average weight for an even distribution is 3.25; 2040 points divided by this weight leaves 627 points for 63 average stations; #1 is apparently worth 10 points.

^[4] Inspection of the New York Times Best Seller List, which is constructed similarly, between 1958 and 1962, seems to confirm this observation: #1s tend to stay for more weeks and there are fewer of them; #2s occupy the ranks for fewer weeks but there appear to be few move-ups. http://www.hawes.com.

^[5] Over time, average duration in weeks = 100/average weekly entries.

^[6] The “100 Biggest Top 100 Hits” chart was published by Cash Box and its archivist Randy Price in 2008. A “progressive inverse points system” and a “compensation factor…for each year” were used, and multiple instances of the same record were consolidated. Music Industry News Network. 14 Oct. 2014. http://www.mi2n.com/press.php3?press_nb = 113979

^[7]Isbell treats the two instances of “The Twist” (1960 and 1962) as one record and totals their scores. Thus, he reports “The Twist” as the strongest charting record of the 1960s. In this work, the two instances are treated separately because they are separate in time by more than a year. There is a similar situation for the two instances of “Light My Fire” by the Doors.

^[8] Fifteen records in this period achieved a star in the second week or later at #1, virtually all in the ’70s. However, because star criteria changed over the years it is unreliable to use this as a quantitative measure of growing strength.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

William F. Carroll

Bill Carroll is an industrial chemist and Adjunct Professor of Chemistry at Indiana University, Bloomington, IN. He is a past president of the American Chemical Society, the world's largest single-discipline scientific organization. Thirty-six years after his doctorate and a career which included numerous scientific publications, he returns to his first love: popular music, charts, and Top 40 radio, utilizing physical science data-reduction techniques to develop music chart analytics.