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Abstract
Innovative prevention, adaptation, and mitigation approaches as well as policies for sustainable flood management continue to be challenges faced by decision-makers. In this study, a mixed interval–fuzzy two-stage integer programming (IFTIP) method is developed for flood-diversion planning under uncertainty. This method improves upon the existing interval, fuzzy, and two-stage programming approaches by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and discrete intervals to be directly incorporated within the optimization framework. In its modelling formulation, economic penalties as corrective measures against any infeasibilities arising because of a particular realization of the uncertainties are taken into account. The method can also be used for analysing a variety of policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties. A management problem in terms of flood control is studied to illustrate the applicability of the proposed approach. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can provide desired flood-diversion alternatives and capacity-expansion schemes with a minimized system cost and a maximized safety level. The developed IFTIP is also applicable to other management problems that involve uncertainties presented in multiple formats as well as complexities in policy dynamics.
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program (2005CB724201 2005CB724207) and the Natural Science Foundation (50225926) of China and the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada.