Testing Ties: Opposition and Power-Sharing Negotiations in Zimbabwe

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamic relations between Zimbabwe's opposition MDC-T party, civic organisations and western governments during the country's 2008 power-sharing negotiations. Because of the high stakes of the negotiations, civic organisations and western governments tried to influence their historical ally, the MDC-T; they wanted the opposition party to adopt an intransigent stance in its negotiations with ZANU(PF) in order to gain further concessions. The MDC-T largely rejected these influences, however, in part due to pressure from Southern African leaders. Aiming to gain regional legitimacy, the party felt compelled to actively reject western influences to counter its construction by ZANU(PF) as a ‘puppet of the west’. Yet the inability of western governments to affect the MDC-T's position during the negotiation period went beyond the opposition's desire to improve its standing within the region. Through the analytical lens of nested games, this article reconstructs how both the MDC-T and western governments view the relation between short-term divisions of power and long-term democratisation in Zimbabwe. This reconstruction demonstrates a disconnect between donor countries and the MDC-T in the assumptions, short-term priorities and long-term objectives driving their decisions. This article further discusses the MDC-T's decision to sideline civic organisations from the negotiation process, and demonstrates that this decision proved particularly harmful because of strategic errors made by the MDC-T in the process of exclusion.

Notes

I owe many thanks to Professor Jocelyn Alexander for her insights, eye for detail and enthusiasm; to the participants in the October 2012 workshop in Oxford on politics, patronage and violence in Zimbabwe; and to three anonymous JSAS reviewers for their valuable comments and criticisms.

¹ The three negotiating parties were: the Zimbabwe African National Union (Patriotic Front) – ZANU(PF) – which is led by Mugabe and has been in power since Zimbabwean independence in 1980; the main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change-Tsvangirai (MDC-T), and the smaller opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change-Mutambara (in this paper referred to as MDC-M to facilitate its distinction from the larger opposition party, though its name is contested). The MDC-T and MDC-M both originate from the MDC, the opposition party that was founded in 1999 and split in 2005.

² Zimfa, ‘Global Political Agreement’, http://www.zimfa.gov.zw/2013-02-06-14-24-29/category/3-global-political-agreement#

³ The term ‘civic organisations’ is used here, in line with its common usage in the Zimbabwean context, to refer to organisations working broadly in the democratic governance arena, with a strong historical alignment to the MDC, including student, women's, workers’, religious, youth and human rights organisations.

⁴ For further details on Mbeki's driving forces and mediation efforts, see B. Raftopoulos, ‘The Global Political Agreement as a “Passive Revolution”: Notes on Contemporary Politics in Zimbabwe’, The Round Table, 99, 411 (December 2010), pp. 705–18.

⁵ S. Chan, ‘The tragedy of Tsvangirai’, Prospect, August 31, 2008.

⁶ A. Mehler, ‘Peace and Power Sharing in Africa: a Not So Obvious Relationship’, African Affairs 108, 432 (July 2009), pp. 453–73.

⁷ N. Cheeseman and B-M. Tendi, ‘Power-sharing in Comparative Perspective: the Dynamics of “Unity Government” in Kenya and Zimbabwe’, Journal of Modern African Studies, 48, 2 (June 2010), pp. 203–29.

⁸Ibid.

⁹Ibid.

¹⁰ Mehler, ‘Peace and Power Sharing in Africa’.

¹¹Ibid., p. 472.

¹² Cheeseman and Tendi, ‘Power-sharing in Comparative Perspective’.

¹³Ibid., p. 212.

¹⁴ ‘Militarisation’ in the Zimbabwean context refers to the incremental appointment of (often retired) military leaders to state institutions and ZANU(PF) structures and the concomitant blurring of divisions between ZANU(PF), the military, and the state (Ibid.).

¹⁵Ibid., p. 220.

¹⁶ M. Tsvangirai, At the Deep End (Johannesburg, Eye Books, 2011).

¹⁷ A. LeBas, From Protest to Parties: Party-Building and Democratization in Africa (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2011).

¹⁸ B. Raftopoulos, ‘The Crisis in Zimbabwe, 1998–2008’, in B. Raftopoulos and A. Mlambo, Becoming Zimbabwe. A History from the Pre-Colonial Period to 2008 (Johannesburg, Weaver Press, 2009), p. 210.

¹⁹ LeBas, From Protest to Parties.

²⁰ Interview, Clever Bere, president of Zimbabwe National Students Union (ZINASU) in 2008, Harare, 11 August 2011.

²¹ E. Masunungure, ‘Zimbabwe at the Crossroads: Challenges for Civil Society’, Open Space (June 2011), pp. 124–37.

²²Ibid.

²³ Interviews, Brian Raftopoulos, Director of Research and Advocacy, the Solidarity Peace Trust, 2 August 2011; Clever Bere, Harare, 11 August 2011.

²⁴ Masunungure, ‘Zimbabwe at the Crossroads’.

²⁵Ibid.; Interview, Munjodzi Mutandiri, National Constitutional Assembly regional co-ordinator, Johannesburg, 8 September 2011.

²⁶ A ‘people-driven constitution’ is one drafted through a process of public participation facilitated by nationwide outreach meetings, in contrast to a process that privileges the role of politicians or lawyers.

²⁷ MDC-T, Road Map to a New Zimbabwe (Harare, 2006).

²⁸Ibid.

²⁹Ibid.

³⁰ Interview, Munjodzi Mutandiri, Johannesburg, 8 September 2011.

³¹ Interview, Tendai Biti, chief MDC-T negotiator in 2008, Harare, 29 August 2011.

³²Ibid.; Interview, Welshman Ncube, chief MDC-M negotiator in 2008, Harare, 31 August 2011.

³³ Interview, Munjodzi Mutandiri, Johannesburg, 8 September 2011.

³⁴ African Emergency Summit, Communiqué of The African Emergency Summit on Zimbabwe (Dar es Salaam, 21 April 2008).

³⁵ Interview, Elinor Sisulu, Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition director, South Africa, in 2008, Pretoria, 8 September 2011.

³⁶ D. Matyszak, Power Dynamics in Zimbabwe's Inclusive Government (Harare, Research and Advocacy Unit, 2009); ‘Civil society's triumph on Zimbabwe’, BBC News Africa, April 25, 2008.

³⁷ Interview, Otto Saki, senior democracy and governance adviser at USAID, Harare, 24 August 2011. Saki was interviewed in his personal capacity.

³⁸ Interview, Benjamin Nyandoro, adviser to Biti and Tsvangirai in 2008, Harare, 23 August 2011.

³⁹ Interview, Washington Katema, Fellow of the Institute for Democratic Alternatives in Zimbabwe. Harare, 29 July 2011. Katema was interviewed in his personal capacity.

⁴⁰ Interview, Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga, MDC-M negotiator in 2008, Harare, 1 September 2011.

⁴¹ According to anonymous MDC-T insiders close to the negotiators, and interviews with: John Makumbe, associate professor at the department of political and administrative studies of the University of Zimbabwe, Harare, 1 August 2011; Lovemore Madhuku, president of the NCA, Harare, 2 August 2011; Mcdonald Lewanika, director of the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, Harare, 11 August 2011; Munjodzi Mutandiri, Johannesburg, 8 September 2011.

⁴² Interview, Macdonald Lewanika, Harare, 11 August 2011.

⁴³ Interview, anonymous MDC-T insider, Harare, 2011.

⁴⁴ Interview, Benjamin Nyandoro, Harare, 23 August 2011.

⁴⁵ Interview, Clever Bere, Harare, 11 August 2011.

⁴⁶ ZCTU, ‘Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions maintains that GNU is a subversion of the constitution’, 16 September 2008, available at http://www.kubatana.net/html/archive/lab/080916zctu.asp?sector = lab&year = 2008&range_start = 31; Interview, Claris Madhuku, director of Platform for Youth Development Trust, Harare, 29 July 2011.

⁴⁷ Matyszak, Power Dynamics.

⁴⁸ Interviews: Clever Bere, Harare, 11 August 2011; Munjodzi Mutandiri, Johannesburg, 8 September 2011; Lovemore Chinoputsa, secretary general of ZINASU in 2008, Harare, 17 August 2011.

⁴⁹ Interviews: anonymous western diplomat, Harare, 2011; Clever Bere, Harare, 11 August 2011; Claris Madhuku, director of Platform for Youth Development Trust, Harare, 29 July 2011.

⁵⁰ Interview, anonymous western diplomat, Harare, 2011.

⁵¹ Though assigning blame differently, the leaders of both factions explained the process as outlined here (interviews: Lovemore Chinoputsa, Harare, 17 August 2011; Clever Bere, Harare, 11 August 2011).

⁵² Interview, Munjodzi Mutandiri, Johannesburg, 8 September 2011.

⁵³ Interview, Otto Saki.

⁵⁴ H. Chingono, ‘Economic Sanctions: A Panacea to Democracy and Good Governance in Zimbabwe?’, Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, 9, 1 (April 2010), pp. 192–216; B-M. Tendi, Making History in Mugabe's Zimbabwe: Politics, Intellectuals and the Media (New York, Peter Lang, 2010).

⁵⁵ N. Cheeseman, Democracy in Africa (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, forthcoming), p. 18.

⁵⁶ The arguments put forward in this section are based on seven meetings with anonymous sources from four major donor countries, corroborated by other sources where possible.

⁵⁷ S. Chan, Southern Africa: Old Treacheries, New Deceits (New Haven, Yale University Press, 2011), p. 176.

⁵⁸ C. Dell, ‘Mutambara Backs Tsvangirai for 2008’, Wikileaks (12 April 2007), http://wikileaks.org/cable/2007/04/07HARARE311.html, accessed 5 February 2012.

⁵⁹ Interviews: Otto Saki, senior democracy and governance adviser at USAID, Harare, 24 August 2011 (Saki was interviewed in his personal capacity); Benjamin Nyandoro, Harare, 23 August 2011.

⁶⁰ Interviews: Miriam Mushayi, MDC-M back-up negotiator in 2008 and director of planning and implementation, Harare, 3 August 2011; Edwin Mushoriwa, MDC-M secretary for information and publicity in 2008 and deputy president of MDC-M, Harare, 3 August 2011.

⁶¹ S. Ndlovu-Gatsheni, ‘Angola–Zimbabwe Relations: a Study in the Search for Regional Alliances’, The Round Table, 99, 411 (2010), pp. 631–53.

⁶² Interview, anonymous western diplomat, Harare, 2011.

⁶³ J. McGee, ‘ZANU-PF and MDC Discuss GNU’, Wikileaks (11 June 2008), http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/06/08HARARE500.html, accessed 14 March 2012.

⁶⁴ J. McGee, ‘Zimbabwe - State of Play’, Wikileaks (21 January 2009), http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/09HARARE48.html, accessed 14 March 2012.

⁶⁵ J. McGee, ‘An Imperfect Deal but the Only One on Offer’, Wikileaks (12 September 2008), http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/09/08HARARE828.html, accessed 14 March 2012.

⁶⁶ While the veracity of the verbal claims of western diplomats regarding their positions in the negotiations could be questioned (given a possible desire to appear correct in retrospect), the views expressed here are corroborated by a variety of sources, including MDC-T members and Wikileaks.

⁶⁷ Interview, anonymous western diplomat, Harare, 2011.

⁶⁸ J. McGee, ‘Tsvangirai Outlines 100 Day Plan’, Wikileaks (30 September 2008), http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/09/08HARARE885.html, accessed 14 March 2012.

⁶⁹ This view was expressed by various western diplomats and MDC insiders close to the negotiations.

⁷⁰ J. McGee, ‘Zimbabwean Insiders Brief Ambassadors McGee and Bost on Political Stalemate and Economic Collapse’, Wikileaks (26 November 2008), http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/11/08HARARE1056.html, accessed 14 March 2012.

⁷¹ See Tendi, Making History in Mugabe's Zimbabwe, and T. Ranger, ‘Nationalist Historiography, Patriotic History and the History of the Nation: the Struggle over the Past in Zimbabwe’, Journal of Southern African Studies, 30, 2 (2004), pp. 215–34.

⁷²Ibid.

⁷³ Interview, Thamsanqa Mahlangu, chairman of MDC-T youth assembly 2006–11 and MDC-T MP, Harare, 30 August 2011.

⁷⁴ ‘Diplomat: U.S. No Longer Supports Zimbabwe Power-Share Deal’, CNN, 21 December 2008.

⁷⁵ Interview, Elinor Sisulu, Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition director South Africa in 2008, Pretoria, 8 September 2011.

⁷⁶ Interview, Benjamin Nyandoro, Harare, 23 August 2011.

⁷⁷ Interviews: Miriam Mushayi, Harare, 3 August 2011; Edwin Mushoriwa, Harare, 3 August 2011.

⁷⁸ T. Mbeki, ‘Re: Constitutional Amendment No. 19, Letter to Morgan Tsvangirai’, 22 November 2008.

⁷⁹ J. McGee, ‘Tsvangirai Tells Ambassador Talks Are on Course’, Wikileaks (5 August 2008), http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08HARARE661.html, accessed 14 March 2012.

⁸⁰ Interview, Fortune Gwaze, MDC-T technical adviser to the negotiators and MDC-T policy co-ordinator in 2011, Harare, 24 August 2011.

⁸¹ Interview, Benjamin Nyandoro, Harare, 23 August 2011.

⁸² Interview, Fortune Gwaze, Harare, 24 August 2011.

⁸³ A. Schedler, ‘The Nested Game of Democratization by Elections’, International Political Science Review, 23, 1 (2002), pp. 103–22, p. 103.

⁸⁴Ibid., p. 110.

⁸⁵Ibid., p. 113.

⁸⁶Ibid., p. 111.

⁸⁸ Interview, anonymous western diplomat, Harare, 2011; B. Raftopoulos, Elections, Mediation and Deadlock in Zimbabwe? (Fundación Real Instituto Elcano, 2008).

⁸⁹ Cheeseman and Tendi, ‘Power-sharing in Comparative Perspective’, p. 204.

⁹⁰ Interview, Benjamin Nyandoro, Harare, 23 August 2011.

⁹¹ Raftopoulos, Elections, Mediation and Deadlock, p. 5.

⁸⁷ The MDC-T was internally divided. The assumptions and priorities mentioned here reflect those of Tsvangirai, and informed the party's final decisions.

⁹² See Chan, Southern Africa, p. 230, for a description of SADC pressure on Tsvangirai.

⁹³ Interview, anonymous MDC-T insider, Harare, 2011.

⁹⁴ E. Masunungure, ‘Voting for Change’, in E. Masunungure (ed.), Defying the Winds of Change – Zimbabwe's 2008 Elections (Harare, Weaver Press, 2009), p. 66.

⁹⁵ ‘Jestina Mukoko released’, Pambazuka News, 6 March 2009.

⁹⁶ Interview, Dzimbabwe Chimbga, Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights, Harare, 5 August 2011.

⁹⁷ Matyszak, Power Dynamics, p. 9.

⁹⁸ MDC National Council, Resolutions of the 7th MDC National Council (Harare, 14 November 2008); SADC, Communiqué of the Extra-Ordinary Summit of the SADC Heads of State and Government (Sandton, 9 November 2008).

⁹⁹ Interview, Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga, Harare, 1 September 2011.

¹⁰⁰ Interview, Fortune Gwaze, Harare, 24 August 2011.

¹⁰¹ Interview, Dennis Murira, MDC-T election director in 2008, Harare, 12 August 2011.

¹⁰² Interviews: Fortune Gwaze, Harare, 24 August 2011; Benjamin Nyandoro, Harare, 23 August 2011.

¹⁰³ Interview, Thamsanqa Mahlangu, Harare, 30 August 2011.

¹⁰⁴ Interview, Solomon Madzore, secretary general, MDC-T youth assembly 2006–11, Harare, 11 August 2011.

¹⁰⁵ Interview, anonymous MDC-T insider, Harare, 2011.

¹⁰⁶ Interview, anonymous MDC-T insider, Harare, 2011.

¹⁰⁷ Interview, Benjamin Nyandoro, Harare, 23 August 2011.

¹⁰⁸ J. McGee, ‘Welshman Ncube on SADC Negotiations’, Wikileaks (2 July 2008); http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/07/08HARARE582.html, accessed 14 March 2012. (Emphasis added.).

¹⁰⁹ Interview, anonymous MDC-T insider, Harare, 2011.

¹¹⁰ Interview, anonymous MDC-T insider, Harare, 2011.

¹¹¹ Interview, anonymous western diplomat, Harare, 2011.

¹¹² Matyszak, Power Dynamics, pp. 33–5.

¹¹³ Interview, Fortune Gwaze, Harare, 24 August 2011.

¹¹⁴ Interview, John Makumbe, Harare, 1 August 2011.

¹¹⁵ T. Ranger, ‘Zim power deal a mix of fire and water’, The East African, 5 October 2008.

¹¹⁶ Interview, Jameson Timba, Harare, 24 August 2011.

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Thys Hoekman

Thys HoekmanSt Antony's College, University of Oxford, 62 Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6JF, United Kingdom. Email: [email protected]