Evidence and education policy – some reflections and allegations1

1. A version of this paper was read to the Royal Statistical Society annual conference, York, 2007.

Abstract

The paper reflects on the use by the UK central government of statistical evidence in educational policy matters. Particular attention is given to school league tables. The paper is generally critical of government attitudes, but suggests that progress towards rational decision‐making does occur.

Keywords:

• evidence‐based policy
• league tables
• education policy

Notes

1. A version of this paper was read to the Royal Statistical Society annual conference, York, 2007.

2. The research claimed that among 11‐year‐olds there was a negative association between the amount of homework done and educational attainment. (Farrow, Tymms, & Henderson, 1999).

3. This was the body that organised primary and secondary education for inner London up to its disbanding by the Government in 1990 and the allocation of education management to the component local authorities in the area.

4. The GCSE is the General Certificate of Secondary Education taken by 16‐year‐olds at the end of compulsory schooling in Year (grade) 11. The A‐level is the advanced level General Certificate of Education examination that is taken at the end of Year 13 and principally serves as a university entrance qualifying examination.

5. A confidence interval provides a range of values that, with a given probability – typically 0.95 – is estimated to contain the true value of the school score. If such an interval includes the value zero then an equivalent statement can be made that the true value is not significantly different from zero at the 5% level.