Policy innovation and tertiary education graduation rates: a cross-country analysis

Abstract

This study extends Trow’s theory of higher education development to examine changes in national-level tertiary education graduation rates. Applying Trow’s framework we arrive at three stages: (1) elite systems with gross tertiary graduation rates less than 15%, (2) massified systems with gross tertiary graduation rates between 15% and 50%, and (3) universal systems with gross tertiary graduation rates above 50%. This study conducts event history analyses using a unique cross-national panel dataset, which spans the time period from 1999–2005. Following the work of Berry and Berry, our event history analyses model both the internal features of each country and the influence that nation-states have on each other with regard to setting tertiary education graduation policy. We find significant influences of both internal determinants and diffusion factors. We find a positive, significant effect of membership in the OECD consistent across both the massified and universal thresholds. We also find a positive, significant effect of having a more stable political system for crossing the 15% threshold. In addition, being located near a pioneering nation, the UK, has a positive, significant effect of crossing the 50% threshold.

Keywords:

• tertiary education
• graduation
• event history analysis
• policy diffusion

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Stacy Bennett, Tyler Kearney, and Casey George-Jackson for their helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.

Notes

1. Within the context of most developing nations that are far from the frontier of their tertiary-level educational capacity, these arguments generally do not apply or tertiary education benefits are lost to brain-drain migration (McMahon 2009).

2. ‘Risk set’ is a technical term that can be thought of as the number of years in which a country has not yet crossed a threshold and is ‘at risk’ of crossing a threshold. More information on this term can be found in Appendix 1.

3. The nations included in our estimating sample are: Albania, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Botswana, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burundi, Cambodia, Chile, China, Colombia, Comoros, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Djibouti, El Salvador, Eritrea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Greece, Guyana, Hungary, Iceland, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Latvia, Lesotho, Lithuania, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malaysia, Malta, Mauritius, Mexico, Mongolia, Morocco, Namibia, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Panama, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Tanzania, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkey, Uganda, United Kingdom, USA, and Venezuela.

4. More information about how countries are identified can be found with the data source information in the reference list. Although there are some disputed cases, our sample only includes countries that are recognised as being sovereign nations and are not territories or colonies of other nations. We code countries that change names, but retain the same basic land area as the same nation.

5. Graduates, tertiary, are defined as the number of students (total) who have successfully completed the final year of a tertiary education. Completion can occur as a result of passing an examination(s), after a requisite number of accumulated course hours, or both. The gross tertiary graduation ratio (first degree), is the total number of graduates from first degree programmes at ISCED 97 level 5A, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the total population at the theoretical graduation age for such programmes.

6. Purchasing power parity GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by mid-year population converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity rates. An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP as the US dollar has in the USA. The GDP at purchaser’s prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in constant 2005 international dollars.

7. Total population aged 15–24 includes all residents aged 15–24, regardless of legal status or citizenship, except for refugees not permanently settled in the country of asylum, who are generally considered part of the population of their country of origin.

8. Used in the field of political science, this political stability measure is a cross between a conceptual measure of political gridlock and a measure of the predictability and reliability of government. We think the is a particularly relevant measure for the capacity of governments to engage in the complicated policy area of higher education. The measure counts ‘the percent of veto players who drop from the government in any given year’ and the change in party control in relation to presidential party of legislatures and parliaments impacting vetoes (Kaufmann, Kraay, and Mastruzzi 2009). More information about how this variable is constructed can be found in Keefer (2009). Kaufmann and Kraay (2008) contains a detailed discussion of the use and measurement of governance indicators.

9. Gender parity index (GPI), gross enrolment in tertiary education, is the ratio of the female-to-male values of the gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education. A GPI of 1 indicates parity between sexes.

10. Our measure includes both land and sea borders. Land borders include land boundaries and rivers. Sea borders are based on the minimum distance between two countries across open water. There are four measures of sea borders: up to 12 miles, 24 miles, 150 miles and 400 miles. We use all five measures of both land and sea borders. The closest form of contiguity is used for each border, so as not to double count borders (Hensel 2007).

11. Intergovernmental organisations are organisations whose membership comprises three or more sovereign states. They are distinct from non-governmental organisations, which have non-state members (Pevehouse and Nordstrom 2003).

12. A ‘hazard rate’ refers to the probability that a country will cross a particular threshold in a particular year. More information on this term can be found in Appendix 1.

13. In addition, we ran our analyses by region and development status. These results are available from the authors upon request.