A SURVEY OF INDIA’S STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

Abstract

This paper examines India’s strategic environment in the round. ‘Strategic’ refers here to politico-military aspects of international relations, particularly those with implications for the use or potential use of force in the future. Thus economic factors are considered secondarily, and only insofar as they have diplomatic and military ramifications – as in the case of Chinese infrastructure projects in South Asia, or Indian port-development in Iran. This approach also sets aside what we might call ‘structural’ factors, such as large-scale multilateral trade deals, such as the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and sociological-demographic trends, such as relative population growth rates, also such issues necessarily influence the real and perceived balance of power over the long-run. The paper begins by considering India’s most salient adversary, Pakistan, before looking at the connected issue of Afghanistan and Central Asia. It then turns east to examine another rival, China, followed by the United States, the smaller states of South Asia, and finally the Middle East.

Notes

1. This essay is an expanded version of Shashank Joshi, ‘India’s Strategic E

nvironment & Adversaries’, in Pushan Das & Sushant Singh (Eds.), Defence Primer: India at 75. New Delhi: Observer Research Foundation (ORF), 2016, pp. 6–11. http://www.orfonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Military_Layout.pdf.

2. Chester A. Crocker, ‘The Strategic Dilemma of a World Adrift’. Survival Vol. 57. Issue 1 (2015): 7–30. doi:10.1080/00396338.2015.1008292.

3. For discussions of this trend, see Gerald F. Seib, ‘Growing Nationalism Could Prove Disruptive’. Wall Street Journal, May 26, 2014, sec. US. http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304811904579585743845367658; Gideon Rachman, ‘The Strange Revival of Nationalism in Global Politics’. Financial Times, September 22, 2014. https://next.ft.com/content/df0add1e-3fef-11e4-936b-00144feabdc0.

4. Paul Evans, ‘Searching for Cooperative Security 2.0’. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies Vol. 01. Issue 04 (2015): 537–551. doi:10.1142/S237774001550030X; Jared McKinney, ‘Four Questions for the ‘Improbable War’. Asian Security Vol. 12, Issue 1 (2016): 53–61. doi:10.1080/14799855.2016.1140642; Nigel Inkster, ‘Coming to Terms with Chinese Power’. Survival Vol. 58. Issue 1 (2016): 209–216. doi:10.1080/00396338.2016.1142149.

5. For overviews of OBOR, see Antoine Bondaz et al., ‘‘One Belt, One Road’: China’s Great Leap Outward’. China Analysis (European Council on Foreign Relations, June 2015). http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/China_analysis_belt_road.pdf; Michael Swaine, ‘Chinese Views and Commentary on the ‘One Belt, One Road’ Initiative’. China Leadership Monitor Issue 47 (2015). http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/clm47ms.pdf; Tim Summers, ‘What Exactly Is ‘One Belt, One Road’?’. Chatham House, September 2015. https://www.chathamhouse.org/node/18685; Theresa Fallon, ‘The New Silk Road: Xi Jinping’s Grand Strategy for Eurasia’. American Foreign Policy Interests Vol. 37. Issue 3 (2015): 140–147. doi:10.1080/10803920.2015.1056682; Zhao Minghao, ‘China’s New Silk Road Initiative’. IAI Working Paper (Instituto Affari Internazionali, October 2015), http://www.iai.it/sites/default/files/iaiwp1537.pdf; Kyle Churchman, ‘China’s Vision for a New Asian Economic and Political Order’. The National Bureau of Asian Research, December 2015. http://www.nbr.org/downloads/pdfs/psa/sa15_essay_chinavision_dec2015.pdf; Min Ye, ‘China and Competing Cooperation in Asia-Pacific: TPP, RCEP, and the New Silk Road’. Asian Security Vol. 11. Issue 3 (2015): 206–224. doi:10.1080/14799855.2015.1109509.

6. Gilbert Rozman, ‘Reassessing the U.S. Rebalance to Northeast Asia’. Orbis Vol. 59. Issue 3 (2015): 348–360.

7. Rory Medcalf and C. Raja Mohan, Responding to Indo-Pacific Rivalry: Australia, India and Middle Power Coalitions. Sydney: Lowy Institute for International Policy and Australia India Institute, 2014. http://www.lowyinstitute.org/files/responding_to_indo-pacific_rivalry_0.pdf.

8. Lavina Lee, ‘India as a Nation of Consequence in Asia: The Potential and Limitatons of India’s ‘Act East’ Policy’. Journal of East Asian Affairs Vol. 29. Issue 2 (2015): 67–104.

9. Rabia Akhtar, Pakistan, India, and China after the US Drawdown from Afghanistan. Washington D.C.: Stimson Center, 2015; Theo Farrell and Michael Semple, ‘Making Peace with the Taliban’. Survival Vol. 57. Issue 6 (2015): 79–110.

10. Waleed Hazbun, ‘A History of Insecurity: From the Arab Uprisings to ISIS’. Middle East Policy Vol. 22. Issue 3 (2015): 55–65. doi:10.1111/mepo.12143.

11. Shashank Joshi, Indian Power Projection: Ambition, Arms and Influence, Whitehall Paper, Royal United Services Institute 85. London: Taylor & Francis, 2015, chaps. 2, 5.

12. Press Trust of India, ‘25 per Cent Decline in Terror Incidents in Jammu and Kashmir: Rajnath Singh’. Indian Express, June 16, 2015. http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/25-per-cent-decline-in-terror-incidents-in-jammu-and-kashmir-rajnath-singh/.

13. Husain Haqqani, Pakistan: Between Mosque And Military. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005; C. Christine Fair, Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army’s Way of War. Oxford University Press, 2014; Carlotta Gall, The Wrong Enemy: America in Afghanistan, 2001–2014, 2014.

14. Iftikhar A. Khan, ‘IS Emerging as a Threat, Warns IB Chief’. Dawn, February 11, 2016, http://www.dawn.com/news/1238771.

15. Farhan Bokhari, ‘Pakistan Militants Align with Isis’. Financial Times, February 16, 2016. https://next.ft.com/content/ba2e1a4c-c315-11e5-808f-8231cd71622e.

16. Unknown, ‘Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan 2003-2016’. South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), March 6, 2016. http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/andhra/data_sheets/annual_casualties.asp.

17. Saeed Shah in Islamabad, Pakistan, and Adam Entous in Washington, ‘Powerful General Raheel Sharif Eclipses Pakistan’s Prime Minister’. Wall Street Journal, October 22, 2015, sec. World, http://www.wsj.com/articles/powerful-general-eclipses-pakistans-civilian-leader-1445488746; Rod Nordland, ‘Pakistan Military Expands Its Power, and Is Thanked for Doing So’. The New York Times, November 17, 2015. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/18/world/asia/pakistan-military-expands-its-power-and-is-thanked-for-doing-so.html; Farhan Bokhari, ‘Army Chief General Raheel Sharif Grows in Power in Pakistan’. Financial Times, January 1, 2016. https://next.ft.com/content/f9c2661e-a569-11e5-97e1-a754d5d9538c.

18. Shyam Saran, ‘Revisiting Pakistan’. February 9, 2016, http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/shyam-saran-revisiting-pakistan-116020901216_1.html.

19. Sameer Lalwani, ‘Will Pakistan Draw Closer to Saudi Arabia to Balance Iran?’. War on the Rocks, February 24, 2016, http://warontherocks.com/2016/02/will-pakistan-draw-closer-to-saudi-arabia-to-balance-iran/.

20. Zofeen T. Ebrahim, ‘China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: A Boon for the Economy, a Bane for Locals’. Dawn, January 30, 2016, http://www.dawn.com/news/1236159.

21. ‘Russian Army to Hold First Mountain Drills with Pakistan This Year’. Dawn, January 23, 2016, http://www.dawn.com/news/1234906; ‘Russia Attaches Great Importance to Anti-Terror Cooperation with Pakistan’. Dawn, February 11, 2016, http://www.dawn.com/news/1238822.

22. Myra Macdonald, ‘Nobody Puts Kashmir in a Corner’. War on the Rocks, May 7, 2014, http://warontherocks.com/2014/05/pakistans-kashmir-illusions/; Vijaita Singh, ‘Won’t Target Kashmir Ultras, Pakistan Army Told Sharif’. The Hindu, January 7, 2016, http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/wont-target-kashmir-ultras-army-told-sharif/article8073636.ece.

23. Walter C. Ladwig, ‘Indian Military Modernization and Conventional Deterrence in South Asia’. Journal of Strategic Studies Vol. 38. Issue 4 (2015): 26, 38–39.

24. Ajay Banerjee, ‘IAF Combats Lowest Fighter Strength’. Tribune, 5 July 2015; George K Tanham and Marcy Agmon, The Indian Air Force: Trends and Prospects. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1995, p. 60.

25. For the estimate of Chinese and Pakistani aircraft numbers, see Ashley J. Tellis, ‘Dogfight! India’s Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft Competition Decision’. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 2011, pp. 1, 18.

26. Indian Ministry of Defence, ‘Demands for Grants (2014–2015) Navy and Airforce Demand (Demand No. 23 & 24)’, fourth report to the Standing Committee on Defence, December 2012, p. 36.

27. David E. Sanger, ‘U.S. Exploring Deal to Limit Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal’. The New York Times, October 15, 2015. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/16/world/asia/us-exploring-deal-to-limit-pakistans-nuclear-arsenal.html.

28. Shashank Joshi, ‘India’s Nuclear Anxieties: The Debate Over Doctrine’. Arms Control Today Vol. 45. Issue 4 (2015).

29. See for example Kate Clark, ‘The Bloodiest Year Yet: UN Reports on Civilian Casualties in 2015’. Afghanistan Analysts Network, February 14, 2015, https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/the-bloodiest-year-yet-un-reports-on-civilian-casualties-in-2015/; Obaid Ali, ‘The 2016 Insurgency in the North: Beyond Kunduz City – Lessons (not Taken) from the Taleban Takeover’. Afghanistan Analysts Network, January 30, 2016, https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/the-2016-insurgency-in-the-north-beyond-kunduz-city-lessons-not-taken-from-the-taleban-takeover/; Rahmatullah Amiri, ‘Helmand (1): A Crisis a Long Time Coming’. Afghanistan Analysts Network, March 10, 2016, https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/helmand-1-a-crisis-a-long-time-coming/.

30. James Dobbins and Carter Malkasian, ‘Time to Negotiate in Afghanistan’. Foreign Affairs, September 3, 2015, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2015-06-16/time-negotiate-afghanistan.

31. Farhan Bokhari and Victor Mallet, ‘Taliban Reject Afghanistan Peace Talks’. Financial Times, March 16, 2016. https://next.ft.com/content/bf0a2b7c-e37d-11e5-a09b-1f8b0d268c39.

32. Thomas Ruttig, ‘The New Taleban Deputy Leaders: Is There an Obvious Successor to Akhtar Mansur?’. February 10, 2016. https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/the-new-taleban-deputy-leaders-is-there-an-obvious-successor-to-akhtar-mansur/.

33. Sanjeev Miglani, ‘India Turns to Russia to Help Supply Arms to Afghan Forces’. Reuters, April 30, 2014, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-afghanistan-arms-idUSBREA3T0J320140430; Kathryn Stoner, ‘Russia’s 21st Century Interests in Afghanistan’. Asian Survey Vol. 55. Issue 2 (2015): 398–419. doi:10.1525/as.2015.55.2.398.

34. Kayhan Barzegar, ‘Iran’s Foreign Policy in Post-Taliban Afghanistan’. The Washington Quarterly Vol. 37. Issue 2 (2014): 119–137. doi:10.1080/0163660X.2014.926213; Hekmatullah Azamy and Abubakr Siddique, ‘Taliban Reach Out to Iran’. Terrorism Monitor (The Jamestown Foundation) Vol. 13. Issue 12 (2015). http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=44029&no_cache=1; Margherita Stancati, ‘Iran Backs Taliban With Cash and Arms’. Wall Street Journal, June 11, 2015, sec. World, http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-backs-taliban-with-cash-and-arms-1434065528.

35. Krunali Shah, ‘U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan in the Indian Print Media’. Asian Politics & Policy Vol. 7. Issue 1 (2015): 169–173. doi:10.1111/aspp.12167; Azmat Rasul, Barbara C. Robinson and Stephen D. McDowell, ‘The Taliban Factor: Conflict in Afghanistan and Elite South Asian Newspapers’. The Journal of International Communication (2015): 1–20. doi:10.1080/13216597.2015.1106960.

36. Shashank Joshi, ‘India’s Role in a Changing Afghanistan’. The Washington Quarterly Vol. 37. Issue 2 (2014): 87–102. doi:10.1080/0163660X.2014.926211; Rajendra M. Abhyankar, ‘Afghanistan after the 2014 U.S. Drawdown’. Asian Survey Vol. 55. Issue 2 (2015): 371–397. doi:10.1525/as.2015.55.2.371.

37. ‘India, Pakistan Become Full SCO Members’. The Hindu, July 10, 2015. http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/india-gets-full-membership-of-the-shanghai-cooperation-organisation-along-with-pakistan/article7407873.ece; Pranab Dhal Samanta, ‘Inside Story of How PM Narendra Modi’s Central Asian Tour Was a Very Unusual Diplomatic Journey’. The Economic Times, July 18, 2015. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/inside-story-of-how-pm-narendra-modis-central-asian-tour-was-a-very-unusual-diplomatic-journey/articleshow/48119214.cms.

38. Reza Yeganehshakib, ‘Iran-India Energy Cooperation Opens New Horizons’. Al-Monitor, January 14, 2016, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/01/iran-india-oman-gas-pipeline-meidp-vs-tapi.html.

39. Suhasini Haidar, ‘Groundbreaking for TAPI Project on December 13’. The Hindu, December 12, 2015. http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/groundbreaking-for-tapi-project-on-december-13/article7978148.ece.

40. Sandeep Unnithan, ‘PM Modi to Ask Tajikistan for Lease of Ex-Soviet Airbase’, India Today, July 12, 2015. http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/pm-narendra-modi-tajikistan-indian-air-force-ayni-airbase-sushma-swaraj-pakistan-china/1/450790.html.

41. ‘GDP (current US$)’. The World Bank, October 14, 2015. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?order=wbapi_data_value_2013+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=asc.

42. SIPRI, ‘Arms Transfers Database 1950-2014’. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), n.d. http://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers.

43. David M. Lampton, ‘Xi Jinping and the National Security Commission: Policy Coordination and Political Power’. Journal of Contemporary China Vol. 24. Issue 95 (2015): 759–777. doi:10.1080/10670564.2015.1013366.

44. Mark Magnier, ‘China’s Economic Growth in 2015 Is Slowest in 25 Years’. Wall Street Journal, January 19, 2016, sec. World, http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-economic-growth-slows-to-6-9-on-year-in-2015-1453169398.

45. Lingling Wei, ‘China Regulators Speed Up Help for Banks on Bad Loans’. Wall Street Journal, March 13, 2016, sec. Economy, http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-regulators-speed-up-bad-loans-1457871782.

46. Rafal Chomik and John Piggott, ‘Population Ageing and Social Security in Asia’. Asian Economic Policy Review Vol. 10. Issue 2 (2015): 199–222. doi:10.1111/aepr.12098.

47. Andrew Scobell, ‘Friends in Need … ’. Asia Policy Vol. 21. Issue 1 (2016): 164–167. doi:10.1353/asp.2016.0015.

48. For an excellent survey, see Andrew Small, The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics, 2015.

49. Charles Clover, ‘China Arms Exports Continue to Surge’. Financial Times, February 22, 2016. https://next.ft.com/content/8fb5af60-d921-11e5-98fd-06d75973fe09.

50. Shyam Saran, ‘What China’s One Belt and One Road Strategy Means for India, Asia and the World’. The Wire, October 9, 2015. http://thewire.in/2015/10/09/what-chinas-one-belt-and-one-road-strategy-means-for-india-asia-and-the-world-12532/.

51. Li Minwang, ‘Indian Perceptions of ‘One Belt One Road’ and China’s Policy Choices’. World Economics and Politics, May 2015. http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTotal-SJJZ201505004.htm.

52. Tanvi Madan, ‘What India Thinks about China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative (but Doesn’t Explicitly Say)’. The Brookings Institution, March 14, 2016. http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/03/14-india-china-asia-connectivity-madan.

53. C. Raja Mohan, ‘Raja-Mandala: A New Way to Act East’. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 15, 2015. http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/12/15/raja-mandala-new-way-to-act-east/in52.

54. Sanjeev Miglani and Greg Torode, ‘India to Build Satellite Tracking Station in Vietnam That Offers Eye on China’. Reuters, January 25, 2016. http://in.reuters.com/article/india-vietnam-satellite-china-idINKCN0V309W.

55. Dhruva Jaishankar, ‘Japan Bets Big on India’. Times of India, December 15, 2015. http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/japan-bets-big-on-india-abe-lends-new-delhi-the-same-helping-hand-that-china-and-southeast-asia-leveraged-to-take-off/. See also Japanese development assistance to India in sensitive areas such as the Andaman and Nicobar Islands (discussed below) and in China-claimed Arunachal Pradesh.

56. ‘India-Australia Naval Exercise ‘AUSINDEX 15’ to Begin Tomorrow’. Times of India, September 11, 2015. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-Australia-naval-exercise-AUSINDEX-15-to-begin-tomorrow/articleshow/48916443.cms.

57. Derek Watkins, ‘What China Has Been Building in the South China Sea’. The New York Times, February 29, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/30/world/asia/what-china-has-been-building-in-the-south-china-sea-2016.html.

58. Jeff M. Smith, Cold Peace: China–India Rivalry in the Twenty-First Century. Lexington Books, 2013, pp. 41–42.

59. Mukul Raheja, China’s Infrastructure Build-up in the Tibet Autonomous Region and along the Indian Border: What India Can Do, Issue Brief. New Delhi: Delhi Policy Group, 2014. http://www.delhipolicygroup.com/uploads/publication_file/1069_China’s_Infrastructure_Build-up_in_the_Tibet_Autonomous_Region_and_along_the_Indian_Border_-_What_India_Can_Do.pdf.

60. Vijainder K. Thakur, ‘Has China checkmated the Indian Army?’. Text, MyIndMakers (2016). https://www.myind.net/has-china-checkmated-indian-army.

61. Rajat Pandit, ‘Fund Crunch Hits Army’s New Strike Corps’. The Times of India, April 16, 2015. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Fund-crunch-hits-Armys-new-strike-corps/articleshow/46940064.cms.

62. ‘The Future of Theater Nuclear Forces in the New Triad: Strategy, Policy and Operational Issues for Deterrence and Warfighting’. The Defense Threat Reduction Agency, October 2003. http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/dtra/tnf.pdf.

63. Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress. Washington DC: Congressional Research Service, December 21, 2015. https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf.

64. Vijay Sakhuja, ‘Chinese Submarines in Sri Lanka Unnerve India: Next Stop Pakistan?’. China Brief (The Jamestown Foundation) Vol. 15. Issue 11 (2015). http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=43960&cHash=a78005ce4ef4d128216bf3c97b8b9fbe; ‘Exclusive: Chinese Submarine Lurked Past Indian Waters, Docked in Karachi?’. India Today, June 27, 2015. http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/chinese-submarine-indian-navy-karachi-indian-ocean-pm-modi/1/447505.html.

65. Abhijit Singh, ‘The Indian Navy’s “New” Expeditionary Outlook’, ORF Occasional Paper No. 37, Observer Research Foundation (ORF), October 2012, p. 10.

66. Jayanta Gupta, ‘Chinese Naval Ships Detected near Andamans’. Times of India, 4 September 2015.

67. Ellen Barry, ‘As India Collaborates With Japan on Islands, It Looks to Check China’. The New York Times, March 11, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/12/world/asia/india-japan-china-andaman-nicobar-islands.html.

68. Fiona S. Cunningham and M. Taylor Fravel, ‘Assuring Assured Retaliation: China’s Nuclear Posture and U.S.-China Strategic Stability’. International Security Vol. 40. Issue 2 (2015): 7–50.

69. ‘Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2015’. Washington DC: US Department of Defense, April 7, 2015, p. 31. http://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2015_China_Military_Power_Report.pdf.

70. ‘U.S.-India Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region’. The White House, January 25, 2015. https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/01/25/us-india-joint-strategic-vision-asia-pacific-and-indian-ocean-region.

71. Niharika Mandhana, ‘U.S., India, Japan Plan Joint Naval Exercises Near South China Sea’. Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2016, sec. World. http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-india-japan-plan-joint-naval-exercises-near-south-china-sea-1457010828.

72. Abhijit Singh, ‘An Emerging Security Quartet in the Indo-Pacific?’. March 17, 2016. http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2015/09/25/An-emerging-security-Quartet-in-the-Indo-Pacific.aspx.

73. Rory Medcalf, ‘The ‘Q’ Word: US Pacific Commander Defies Diplomatic Niceties in New Delhi’. March 4, 2016. http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/03/04/The-q-word-US-Pacific-commander-defies-diplomatic-niceties-in-New-Delhi.aspx; Ellen Barry, ‘U.S. Proposes Reviving Naval Coalition to Balance China’s Expansion’. The New York Times, March 2, 2016. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/03/world/asia/us-proposes-india-naval-coalition-balance-china-expansion.html.

74. C. Raja Mohan, ‘Raja-Mandala: Trading Places’, The Indian Express, March 9, 2016. http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/raja-mandala-trading-places/.

75. Pasricha Anjana, ‘India Rejects Joint Naval Patrols with US in South China Sea’. VOA, March 11, 2016. http://www.voanews.com/content/india-rejects-joint-naval-patrols-with-us-in-south-china-sea/3231567.html.

76. ‘US Govt Seeks $860m for Pakistan’. Dawn, February 11, 2016. http://www.dawn.com/news/1238764.

77. SIPRI, ‘Arms Transfers Database 1950-2014’.

78. Ashley J. Tellis, ‘Beyond Buyer-Seller’. Force, August 2015. http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Tellis_Beyond_Buyer-Seller.pdf; Ashley J. Tellis, Making Waves: Aiding India’s Next-Generation Aircraft Carrier. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 2015. http://carnegieendowment.org/files/making_waves.pdf.

79. ‘U.S.-India Joint Statement’. White House, September 30, 2014, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/09/30/us-india-joint-statement.

80. Saeed Shah, Adam Entous and Gordon Lubold, ‘U.S. Threatens to Withhold Pakistan Aid’. Wall Street Journal, August 22, 2015, sec. World, http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-threatens-to-withhold-pakistan-aid-1440163925.

81. Stephen Tankel, ‘Is the United States Cutting Pakistan Off? The Politics of Military Aid’. War on the Rocks, August 31, 2015. http://warontherocks.com/2015/08/is-the-united-states-cutting-pakistan-off-the-politics-of-military-aid/.

82. Robert M. Gates, Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War. Knopf Doubleday, 2014.

83. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Hard Choices, reprint edition. Simon & Schuster, 2014, passim.

84. Jeffrey Goldberg, ‘The Obama Doctrine’. The Atlantic, April 2016. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/.

85. Ashley J. Tellis, ‘Unity in Difference: Overcoming the U.S.-India Divide’. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 21, 2015. http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/01/21/unity-in-difference-overcoming-u.s.-india-divide.

86. Devin T. Hagerty, ‘India’s Regional Security Doctrine’. Asian Survey Vol. 31. Issue 4 (1991): 351–363.

87. Nirupama Subramanian, ‘India and Its Neighbours: Something Gained in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, a Lot Lost in Nepal’. Indian Express, December 28, 2015. http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/india-and-its-neighbours-something-gained-in-sri-lanka-and-bangladesh-a-lot-lost-in-nepal/.

88. Dhruva Jaishankar, ‘Myanmar Is Pivoting Away from China’. Foreign Policy, June 15, 2015. https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/06/15/myanmar-burma-is-pivoting-away-from-china-aung-san-suu-kyi-xi-jinping-india/; ‘Proxy President’, Indian Express, March 16, 2016. http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/editorials/aung-san-suu-kyi-myanmars-first-democratic-national-election-proxy-president/.

89. Praveen Swami, ‘Beyond the News: How, with Afghan Peace Plan at Abyss Edge, War Looms for India’. The Indian Express, March 7, 2016. http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/how-with-afghan-peace-plan-at-abyss-edge-war-looms-for-india/.

90. Bibek Subedi, ‘India Cuts Annual Grant to Nepal by 40 Percent’. The Kathmandu Post, March 2, 2016. http://kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/news/2016-03-02/india-cuts-annual-grant-to-nepal-by-40-percent.html; Biswas Baral, ‘India’s ‘Blockade’ Has Opened the Door for China in Nepal’. The Wire, March 2, 2016. http://thewire.in/2016/03/02/indias-blockade-has-opened-the-door-for-china-in-nepal-23042/.

91. Former Indian diplomat Satyabrata Pal argues that India is “fearful that we will drive the [Maldives] government even deeper into the Sino-Saudi embrace”. See ‘As India Seeks a Passage to the Maldives It Must Not Underestimate China’. The Wire, February 19, 2016. http://thewire.in/2016/02/19/as-india-seeks-a-passage-to-maldives-it-must-not-underestimate-china-or-the-archipelagos-problems-22058/; see also Suhasini Haidar, ‘PM Drops Maldives from Indian Ocean Tour’. The Hindu, March 6, 2015. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/pm-drops-maldives-from-indian-ocean-tour/article6966095.ece.

92. Krishna Pokharel and Niharika Mandhana, ‘Three-Week Bridge Blockade Hurts Nepal Economy’. Wall Street Journal, October 15, 2015. http://www.wsj.com/articles/three-week-bridge-blockade-hits-nepal-economy-1444836660.

93. Srinath Raghavan, ‘Regional Integration: From Pipe Dream to Possibility’. Seminar Issue 629 (2012), http://www.india-seminar.com/2012/629/629_srinath_raghavan.htm.

94. John Chalmers and Sanjeev Miglani, ‘Indian Spy’s Role Alleged in Sri Lankan President’s Election Defeat’. Reuters, January 18, 2015, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/18/us-sri-lanka-election-india-insight-idUSKBN0KR03020150118.

95. Garver, Protracted Contest, p. 18; Devin T. Hagerty, ‘India’s Regional Security Doctrine’. Asian Survey Vol. 31. Issue 4 (1991): 362–363.

96. C. Raja Mohan, ‘Samudra Manthan: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific’. Brief, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012, chaps 7–9.

97. Namrata Goswami, ‘Drugs and the Golden Triangle: Renewed Concerns for Northeast India’. Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, February 10, 2014.

98. Subir Bhaumik, ‘Smuggling of China-Made Weapons in Focus’. Al Jazeera, February 4, 2014. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2014/02/smuggling-china-made-weapons-focus-20142463722679830.html.

99. Stephen Tankel, Jihadist Violence: The Indian Threat. Washington DC: Wilson Center, 2013, p. 8.

100. Oscar Nkala, ‘India Developing Network of Coastal Radars’. Defense News, March 10, 2015. http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/naval/2015/03/20/india-seychelles-coastal-radar-china-modi-indian-ocean/25084237/.

101. Goldberg, ‘The Obama Doctrine’.

102. David Hearst, ‘Russia’s Holy War in Syria’. Sharq Forum, November 10, 2015. http://www.sharqforum.org/en/articles/5641b61e69702d24a10f0000.

103. James N. Miller et al., ‘Symposium: Iran and the Arab World: Implications of the Nuclear Negotiations’. Middle East Policy Vol. 22. Issue 3 (2015): 1–26. doi:10.1111/mepo.12139; Mark Fitzpatrick, ‘Iran: A Good Deal’. Survival Vol. 57. Issue 5 (2015): 47–52. doi:10.1080/00396338.2015.1090123.

104. Shashank Joshi, ‘The Vienna Turn’. The Indian Express, July 16, 2015. http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/the-vienna-turn/.

105. Saikat Datta, ‘In ISIS Wake, India May Tweak West Asia Policy’. http://www.hindustantimes.com/, September 10, 2014, http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-may-make-significant-changes-in-west-asia-policy/article1-1262059.aspx.

106. Ajai Sahni, ‘Breaking News: ISIS Is Not Coming! ISIS Is Not Coming!’, Text, Scroll.in (February 11, 2016). http://scroll.in/article/803373/breaking-news-isis-is-not-coming-isis-is-not-coming.

107. Manmohan Bahadur, ‘What India Needs to Learn from #YemenEvacuation’. Economic Times, April 23, 2015. http://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-commentary/what-india-needs-to-learn-from-yemenevacuation/.

108. Charu Sudan Kasturi, ‘Twin Versions on Mosul Puzzle Delhi’. The Telegraph, June 23, 2014. http://www.telegraphindia.com/1140624/jsp/nation/story_18544372.jsp.

109. Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs, Government of India, ‘Population of Overseas Indians’, 2015, http://moia.gov.in/writereaddata/pdf/Population_Overseas_Indian.pdf, accessed 22 October 2015.

110. T. K. Vineeth, ‘The Social Construct of India’s High-Remittance Story’. Business Standard, April 15, 2015.

111. International Institute for Sustainable Development. India Energy Subsidy Review: A Biannual Survey of Energy Subsidy Policy Vol. 1. Issue 1 (2014): 3.

112. Reuters, ‘India to Spend $37 Bln on Major Subsidies in 2015/16’. Yahoo Finance, February 28, 2015.

113. Energy Information Administration, ‘India Is Increasingly Dependent on Imported Fossil Fuels as Demand Continues to Rise’. 14 August 2014, <http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=17551#>, accessed 22 October 2015.

114. Nidhi Verma, ‘Saudi Arabia Loses Spot as Top Crude Supplier to India, China’. Reuters, June 24, 2015.

115. ‘Speech by Foreign Secretary at Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi’. March 2, 2015, http://mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/26433.

116. Tanvi Madan, ‘Why India and Israel Are Bringing Their Relationship out from ‘under the Carpet’’. The Brookings Institution, February 11, 2016. http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/02/11-india-israel-relations-madan.

117. Frank O’Donnell and Yogesh Joshi, ‘Lost at Sea: The Arihant in India’s Quest for a Grand Strategy’. Comparative Strategy Vol. 33. Issue 5 (2014): 466–481.

118. Nandan Unnikrishnan, Trends in Russia-China Relations: Implications for India. New Delhi: Observer Research Foundation (ORF), 2015. http://www.orfonline.org/research/trends-in-russia-china-relations-implications-for-india/.

119. Michelle Flournoy and Shawn Brimley, ‘The Contested Commons’. Proceedings Magazine, July 2009.

120. On the nature of the liberal international order, see G. John Ikenberry, ‘The Liberal International Order and Its Discontents’. Millennium - Journal of International Studies (2010). doi:10.1177/0305829810366477; on India’s relationship to it, see Non-Alignment 2.0. New Delhi: Centre for Policy Research (CPR), 2012, pp. 26–31.

121. Daniel Moore and Thomas Rid, ‘Cryptopolitik and the Darknet’. Survival Vol. 58. Issue 1 (2016): 7–38. doi:10.1080/00396338.2016.1142085.

122. David Scott, ‘Australia’s Embrace of the ‘Indo-Pacific’: New Term, New Region, New Strategy?’. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific Vol. 13. Issue 3 (2013): 425–448. doi:10.1093/irap/lct009.

123. Srinath Raghavan, India’s War: World War II and the Making of Modern South Asia. London: Allen Lane, 2016, p. 464.

124. Shivshankar Menon, ‘Speech by National Security Advisor at IAFAC on ‘India in the 21st Century World’’. Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, February 12, 2014, http://goo.gl/LK7ixv.

125. Raghavan, India’s War: World War II and the Making of Modern South Asia, p. 458.

126. Shashi Tharoor, ‘Why India’s Intolerance Problem Is Hurting Its Global Reputation’. New Perspectives Quarterly Vol. 33. Issue 1 (2016): 55–58. doi:10.1111/npqu.12025.