![Sample our Area Studies journals, sign in here to start your access, latest two full volumes FREE to you for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5922/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Area-Studies.jpg"})
Abstract
Myanmar’s Rohingya conflict is arguably the most sensitive and complex issue facing the country, both in terms of the extent of physical and social destruction, and the impact on Myanmar’s domestic reform and international standing. The scale of human suffering is mind-numbing, the reactions of Aung San Suu Kyi and the Myanmar authorities baffling. However, too much international commentary is reductionist, flattening multiparty and multifaceted sociopolitical dynamics into a simple narrative, which is detrimental to understanding and responding to the conflict. This paper attempts to make sense of some of this complexity, firstly by addressing several common misperceptions of the conflict, then analysing it from a variety of theoretical perspectives. The first misconception is that this conflict is not new, but significant antecedents date back at to at least World War II, if not before. The second is that this conflict is not merely about state oppression of a despised and vulnerable ethno-religious minority, but rather a multipolar conflict with conflict and violence, driven by mutual existential fears and deeply historical grievances on all sides, by at least three key actors. This multipolarity needs to be better understood but outsiders seeking resolution of the conflict. And finally, the third is that this conflict is not primarily about the denial of citizenship and statelessness of the Muslims, as significant as this is, but about definition of the political community in Myanmar and the politics of inclusion/exclusion in governance. Framing this as an ‘intractable conflict’, this paper then examines the drivers of conflict from the perspective of an ethnic security dilemma, a double minority complex, and the political economy, arriving at conclusions about the nature of the conflict and sounding a final warning about a potential moral hazard arising from the way international support is framed and offered.
Notes
1 IOM, ISCG Situation Update: Rohingya Refugee Crisis, International Organization for Migration, Inter Sector Coordination Group: Cox’s Bazar, 25 March 2018.
2 Ibid.
3 Ibid.
4 Médecins Sans Frontières, Myanmar/Bangladesh: MSF Surveys Estimate that at Least 6,700 Rohingya Were Killed During the Attacks in Myanmar, press release, 12 December 2017. Also, “No One was Left” – Death and Violence Against the Rohingya in Rakhine State, report, 9 March 2018.
5 Human Rights Watch, Burma: 40 Rohingya Villages Burned Since October, 17 December 2017.
6 C. Sidoti, M. Darusman and R. Coomaraswamy, Report of the International Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar, UN Human Rights Council, A/HRC/39/64, 24 August 2018.
7 Ibid, p. 16.
8 Ibid, p. 17.
9 IOM, ISCG Situation Update, op. cit., and personal conversations with UNOCHA personnel, June 2018.
10 Amnesty International, New Evidence Reveals Rohingya Armed Group Massacred Scores in Rakhine State, News Asia and the Pacific, 22 May 2018.
11 International Crisis Group [ICG], Myanmar Conflict Alert: Preventing Communal Bloodshed and Building Better Relations, Alert Asia, 12 June 2012; also The Dark Side of Transition: Violence against Muslims in Myanmar, Asia Report No. 251, 1 October 2013; and Myanmar: The Politics of Rakhine State, Asia Report No. 261, 22 October 2014.
12 Union of Myanmar, Final Report of Inquiry Commission on Sectarian Violence in Rakhine State, Naypyitaw: Republic of the Union of Myanmar, 8 July 2013.
13 UNOCHA, Rakhine Response Plan (Myanmar) July 2012–December 2013. Yangon: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 2013.
14 A. Selth, ‘Burma’s Muslims and the War on Terror’. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism Vol. 27. Issue 2 (2004): 107–126, and ‘Burma’s Muslims: A Primer’, The Interpreter. Melbourne: Lowy Institute for International Policy, 27 March 2013. Also, R. Horsey, ‘Myanmar Border Attacks Fuel Tensions with Rohingya Muslim Minority’. Commentary Asia, International Crisis Group, 12 October 2016.
15 ICG, Myanmar: A New Muslim Insurgency in Rakhine State, Asia Report No. 283, 2016; also Myanmar’s Rohingya Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase, Asia Report No. 292, 2017.
16 Ibid.
17 K. Annan, Win Mra, Aye Lwin, Tha Hla Shwe, Mya Thida, Saw Khin Tint, Khin Maung Lay, G. Salamé and L. van den Assum, Towards a Peaceful, Fair and Prosperous Future for the People of Rakhine: Final Report of the Advisory Commission on Rakhine State, August 2017.
18 Breaking News-32: Humanitarian Aid Provided to Displaced People Without Segregation. State Counsellor Office Information Committee, The Republic of the Union of Myanmar, 5 September 2017, retrieved from www.statecounsellor.gov.mm/en/node/995 (accessed 27 December 2018).
19 Sidoti, Darusman and Coomaraswamy, Report of the International Fact-Finding Mission, p. 8.
20 Médecins Sans Frontières, No One was Left, ibid.
21 Ibid.
22 Amnesty International, “We Will Destroy Everything”- Military Responsibility for Crimes Against Humanity in Rakhine State, Myanmar, June 2018.
23 Breaking News-29: ARSA Extremist Terrorists Open Fire at Security Forces, Torch Homes. Naypyitaw: State Counsellor Office Information Committee, The Republic of the Union of Myanmar, 4 September, retrieved from www.statecounsellor.gov.mm/en/node/993 (accessed 27 December 2018).
24 See ICG, Myanmar’s Rohingya Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase, p. 6.
25 ARSA, Declaration of Humanitarian Pause: Cessation of Offensive Military Operations in Arakan State for Humanitarian Access, Press release 10 September 2017 ref ARSA/PR/10/2017 [Twitter], ARSA_The Army @ARSA_Official, https://twitter.com/ARSA_Official.
26 M. Yegar, Muslims of Burma, op. cit; J. Leider, ‘Conflict & Mass Violence in Arakan (Rakhine State): The 1942 Events & Political Identity Formation’, in A. South & M. Lall (Eds.), Citizenship in Myanmar. Chiang Mai University Press, 2018, pp. 193–222.
27 Burma News International, Deciphering Myanmar’s Peace Process: A Reference Guide 2016. Chiang Mai, 2017; also, Myanmar Peace Monitor, Conflicts Archive, 2017, www.mmpeacemonitor.org/conflict/conflict-overview/conflicts-archive (accessed 27 December 2018).
28 Nyan Lynn Aung, ‘Rakhine Chief Minister says IDPs from all Communities Need Aid’. Myanmar Times, April 28, 2016; Mratt Kyaw Thu, ‘IDP Numbers Rise in Rakhine as Forced Labour Allegations Fly’. Frontier Myanmar, May 6.
29 N. Cheesman, ‘How in Myanmar “National Races” Came to Surpass Citizenship and Exclude Rohingya’. Journal of Contemporary Asia Vol. 47, Issue 3 (2017): 461–483.
30 L. Kriesberg, ‘Intractable Conflict’. Peace Review Vol. 5. (1993): 417–421; D. Bar-Tal, Intractable Conflicts: Socio-psychological Foundations and Dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
31 Bar-Tal, Intractable Conflicts: Socio-psychological Foundations & Dynamics.
32 See our book for detailed explanations of these narratives: A. Ware & C. Laoutides, Myanmar’s ‘Rohingya’ Conflict. London: Hurst, 2018, chapters 3 and 4.
33 Ibid.
34 B. Posen, ‘The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict’. Survival Vol. 35 (1993): 27–47.
35 Yegar, Muslims of Burma, op. cit; P. Murray, ‘Secret’ Correspondence (Perspective on the Troubles in North Arakan) (to Robert W.D. Fowler, Commonwealth Relations Office, 26 January 1949, held UK Foreign Office SW1, F 1323/1015/79); J. Leider, ‘Conflict & Mass Violence in Arakan’, op. cit.
36 ARSA, Statement 2: Current Unrest Triggered by Burmese Military to Derail @KofiAnnan Commission Report on Arakan State, 24 August 2017, [Twitter], ARSA_The Army @ARSA_Official, https://twitter.com/ARSA_Official.