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Abstract
The Coronavirus (2019-nCoV, or COVID-19) outbreak started in the central Hubei province in China. The spread of the disease across China, and now around the globe, is a multi-layered issue that affects both politics and science. On one level, it is a public health crisis in an area where developing China is particularly vulnerable. On another, it sheds light on the issue of governance under Xi Jinping and the strengths and weaknesses of his highly centralised style of rule in contemporary China. Finally, it also speaks to the current atmosphere in geopolitics, where the boundary between China and the world around it, and particularly with the USA, is growing deeper. This article will look at each of these issues in turn. The spread and global impact of the virus has proved to be a fast-moving phenomenon. It is likely to make an impact that will last not just for years, but decades. There is every possibility that globalisation will be recast and reformed, as a result. This is a very initial attempt to understand some of the factors that might go into this, as they can be seen at the time of writing (April 2020).
Notes
1 The origins of COVID-19 were discussed recently in Nature: Kristian G. Andersen, Andrew Rambaut, W. Ian Lipkin, Edward C. Holmes and Robert F. Garry, ‘The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2’. Nature Medicine (Mar 2020). doi:10.1038/s41591-020-0820-9.
2 The most recent published review of global CFR: Shigui Ruan, ‘Likelihood of Survival of Coronavirus Disease 2019’. The Lancet Infectious Diseases (March 2020), S1473309920302577. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30257-7.
3 The New England Journal of Medicine recently found in a study that mild or asymptomatic individuals can shed a significant amount of infectious virus: Lirong Zou, Feng Ruan, Mingxing Huang, Lijun Liang, Huitao Huang, Zhongsi Hong, Jianxiang Yu, et al. ‘SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Upper Respiratory Specimens of Infected Patients’. New England Journal of Medicine Vol. 382. Issue 12 (19 March 2020): 1177–1179. doi:10.1056/NEJMc2001737.
4 Elsevier’s published and updated list of potential therapies currently undergoing research: https://www.elsevier.com/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/988648/COVID-19-Drug-Therapy_Mar-2020.pdf.
5 For more on this, see Kerry Brown and Simone Von Neuwenhuizen, ‘Australia-China Healthcare Opportunities’, George Institute and University of Sydney, 2014, which gives an overview of the healthcare challenges in contemporary China. Report available at https://www.georgeinstitute.org/sites/default/files/australia-china-healthcare-opportunities-en.pdf.
6 See, for instance, Liubomir K Topaloff, ‘Is Covid-19 China’s “Chernobyl Moment”?’ The Diplomat, March 4, 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/is-covid-19-chinas-chernobyl-moment/.
7 Anthony Green, ‘Li Wenliang’. The Lancet, February 18, 2020, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30382-2/fulltext.
8 For a rolling chronology of the WHO’s involvement of the Wuhan events see https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-as-they-happen.
9 Robert Shiller, Narrative Economics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2019.
10 Francois Jullien, A Treatise on Efficacy. Trans. Janet Lloyd. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 2004, p. 153.
11 Xinhua, ‘China Opposes U.S. Stigmatization by Calling Coronavirus “Chinese Virus”’. www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/17/c_138888434.htm (accessed 17 March 2020).
12 ‘Coronavirus: China's Envoy to US Breaks with Foreign Ministry on Virus Origins’. Straits Times, March 23, 2020, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/coronavirus-chinas-top-envoy-to-us-breaks-with-foreign-ministry-on-virus-origins.
13 Genetic similarity of human COVID-19 to bat Coronavirus: Peng Zhou, Xing-Lou Yang, Xian-Guang Wang, Ben Hu, Lei Zhang, Wei Zhang, Hao-Rui Si, et al. ‘Discovery of a Novel Coronavirus Associated with the Recent Pneumonia Outbreak in Humans and Its Potential Bat Origin’. Preprint. Microbiology January 23, 2020, doi:10.1101/2020.01.22.914952.
14 Nature article suggesting COVID-19 genetic similarities to pangolin coronavirus: Tommy Tsan-Yuk Lam, Marcus Ho-Hin Shum, Hua-Chen Zhu, Yi-Gang Tong, Xue-Bing Ni, Yun-Shi Liao, Wei Wei, et al. ‘Identifying SARS-CoV-2 Related Coronaviruses in Malayan Pangolins’. Nature, March 26, 2020, doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2169-0.
15 Lukas Valasek, ‘Confiscated Face Masks Imported by an Influential Chinese Representative in Czechia’. March 26, 2020, https://zpravy.aktualne.cz/domaci/confiscated-face-masks-imported-by-an-influential-representa/r~560650326f6611ea842f0cc47ab5f122/.
16 The Guardian, ‘Michael Gove Appears to Blame China Over Lack of UK Coronavirus Testing’. March 29, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/29/michael-gove-appears-to-blame-china-over-lack-of-uk-coronavirus-testing.
17 For more on Taiwan, the PRC and the issue of the WHO and WHA, see Kerry Brown, ‘The Beijing Perspective: The Political and Diplomatic Context for Taiwan and the World Health Assembly’. International Journal of Taiwan Studies, Vol. 3. Issue 1 (2020): 28–43. https://brill.com/view/journals/ijts/3/1/article-p28_28.xml.
18 Scientific article published in Chinese: ‘Expert Consensus on Chloroquine Phosphate for the Treatment of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia’. Zhonghua Jie He He Hu Xi Za Zhi. Vol. 43. Issue 3 (12 March 2020): 185–188. doi:10.3760/cma.j.issn.1001-0939.2020.03.009.
19 Don Weinland and Liu Xinning, ‘Chinese Economy Suffers Record Blow from Coronavirus’. Financial Times, March 16, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/318ae26c-6733-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3.
20 Mike Pence, ‘Vice President Mike Pence's Remarks on the Administration's Policy Towards China’. Hudson Institute, October 4, 2018, https://www.hudson.org/events/1610-vice-president-mike-pence-s-remarks-on-the-administration-s-policy-towards-china102018.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Kerry Brown
Kerry Brown is Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of the Lau China Institute, King’s College, London. He is a member of the editorial board of Asian Affairs.
Ruby Congjiang Wang
Ruby Congjiang Wang is a practising clinical doctor and medical advisor, having studied medicine at the University of Cambridge and University College London, and Global Health Policy as a Schwarzman Scholar at Tsinghua University.