The China–Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership: A Tale of two Regional Security Complexes

ABSTRACT

The China-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP) has been described as a potentially disruptive alignment. This article analyses the impact of the CSP in two regional security complexes (RSCs): the Persian Gulf and South Asia. It finds that of the two RSCs, the China-Iran CSP has a greater likelihood of affecting the strategic landscape of the South Asian RSC as China seeks to contain India's power and influence. In the Persian Gulf, China's economically-motivated regional presence is supported by the maintenance of the status quo, and as a result the CSP is not likely to adversely affect that RSC.

KEYWORDS:

• China
• Iran
• Regional Security Complex Theory
• Persian Gulf
• South Asia
• India
• Chabahar

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 Faranaz Fassihi and Steven Lee Myers, ‘China, with $400 Billion Iran Deal, Could Deepen Influence in Mideast’. The New York Times, March 27, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/27/world/middleeast/china-iran-deal.html?searchResultPosition=1 (accessed 9 January 2022).

2 Mohan Malik, China and India: Great Power Rivals. Boulder and London: First Forum Press, 2011, p. 3.

3 For an excellent in-depth analysis of the BRI in South Asia, see Jean-Marc F. Blanchard (Ed.), China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative and South Asia: A Political Economic Analysis of its Purposes, Perils, and Promise. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018.

4 For the press release on the announcement of the CSP, see ‘Full Text of Joint Statement on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Between I.R. Iran, P.R. China’, http://www.president.ir/EN/91435 (accessed 9 January 2022).

5 Jonathan Fulton, ‘Situating Saudi Arabia in China’s Belt and Road Initiative’. Asian Politics & Policy Vol. 12. Issue 3 (2020): 372-373; Jonathan Fulton, ‘Iran Isn’t the Only Middle Eastern Country in a Unique Partnership with China’, Atlantic Council MENASource, July 15, 2020, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/iran-isnt-the-only-middle-eastern-country-in-a-unique-partnership-with-china/ (accessed 9 January 2022).

6 Sylvia Westall, Adveith Nair, and Farah Elbahrawy, ‘China Picks UAE to Make Millions of Vaccines, Boosting Gulf Ties’. Bloomberg, March 28, 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-28/julphar-signs-deal-with-abu-dhabi-firm-to-produce-sinopharm-shot (accessed 9 January 2022).

7 John Garver, ‘China and the Iran Nuclear Negotiations: Beijing’s Mediation Effort’, in James Reardon-Anderson (Ed.), The Red Star & the Crescent: China and the Middle East. London: Hurst & Company, 2018, pp. 139–144.

8 Kelsey Davenport, ‘Trump Election Puts Iran Deal in Doubt’. Arms Control Today, December 2016, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2016-11/news/trump-election-puts-iran-deal-doubt

9 Sanam Vakil and Neil Quilliam, ‘Getting to a New Iran Deal: A Guide for Trump, Washington, Tehran, Europe and the Middle East’. Chatham House, October 22, 2019, https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/getting-new-iran-deal-guide-trump-washington-tehran-europe-and-middle-east (accessed 9 January 2022).

10 Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, ‘Iran Can No Longer Rely on Trade with China’. Bloomberg, April 27, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-27/iran-can-no-longer-rely-on-trade-with-china (accessed 9 January 2022).

11 Laura Zhou, ‘China, Iran Should Stand Together Against “Unilateralism and Bullying”, Wang Yi Says’. South China Morning Post, January 1, 2020, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3044149/china-iran-should-stand-together-against-unilateralism-and (accessed 9 January 2022).

12 ‘Soleimani’s Killing: China Tells Iran Foreign Minister that US Should Stop ‘Abusing’ Use of Force’. Dawn, January 4, 2020, https://www.dawn.com/news/1526250 (accessed 9 January 2022).

13 @Chinamission2un, ‘US failed to meet its obligations under Resolution 2231 by withdrawing from #JCPOA. It has no right to extend an arms embargo on Iran, let alone to trigger snapback. Maintaining JCPOA is the only right way moving forward’. May 14, 2020, 8:01 pm, https://twitter.com/Chinamission2un/status/1260963464446644226 (accessed 9 January 2022).

14 Simon Watkins, ‘China and Iran Flesh Out Strategic Partnership’. Petroleum Economist, September 3, 2019.

15 See Jacopo Scita, ‘No, China Isn’t Giving Iran $400 Billion’. Bourse & Bazaar, September 20, 2019, https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2019/9/20/no-china-isnt-giving-iran-400-billion (accessed 9 January 2022).

16 Faranaz Fassihi and Steven Lee Myers, ‘Defying U.S., China and Iran Near Trade and Military Partnership’. The New York Times, July 11, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/11/world/asia/china-iran-trade-military-deal.html (accessed 9 January 2022).

17 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, ‘Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian’s Regular Press Conference no March 29, 2021’, March 29, 2021, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1865136.shtml

18 Lucille Greer and Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, ‘China and Iran Announced a New Economic and Security Partnership. That’s not as Alarming as It Sounds’. The Washington Post Monkey Cage, April 1, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/04/01/china-iran-announced-new-economic-security-partnership-thats-not-alarming-it-sounds/ (accessed 9 January 2022); Jonathan Fulton, ‘Slender Beijing-Tehran Agreement: More is Less, Despite Hype’. The Arab Gulf State Institute in Washington, April 1, 2021, https://agsiw.org/slender-beijing-tehran-agreement-more-is-less-despite-hype/ (accessed 9 January 2022); Jacopo Scita, ‘The China-Iran Agreement: A Blessing in Disguise for the JCPOA?’. The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, April 6, 2021, https://peacediplomacy.org/2021/04/06/the-china-iran-agreement-a-blessing-in-disguise-for-the-jcpoa/ (accessed 9 January 2022); William Figueroa, ‘China-Iran Relations: The Myth of Massive Investment’. The Diplomat, April 6, 2021, https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/china-iran-relations-the-myth-of-massive-investment/ (accessed 9 January 2022).

19 Barry Buzan, People States and Fear: The National Security Problem in International Relations. Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press, 1983, p. 106.

20 Waleed Hazbun, ‘In America’s Wake: Turbulence and Insecurity in the Middle East’, in Marc Lynch and Amaney Jamal (Eds.), Project on Middle East Political Science: Shifting Global Politics and the Middle East, 34 (2019): 14–17.

21 F. Gregory Gause III, The International Relations of the Persian Gulf. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010, p. 4.

22 Morten Valbjørn and André Bank, ‘The New Arab Cold War: Rediscovering the Arab Dimension of Middle East Regional Politics’. Review of International Studies Vol. 88. Issue 1 (2012): 3-24; F. Gregory Gause, III, ‘Beyond Sectarianism: The New Middle East Cold War’. Brookings Doha Center Analysis Paper 11 (2014).

23 For an overview, see Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Qatar and the Gulf Crisis. London: Hurst & Company Publishers, 2020.

24 Barry Buzan and Ole Waever, Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003, pp. 46–47.

25 Barry Buzan, ‘The South Asian Security Complex in a Decentering World Order: Reconsidering Regions and Powers Ten Years On’. International Studies Vol. 48. Issue 1 (2011): 2.

26 United Nations Development Programme, ‘Human Development Reports’, continuously updated, http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/latest-human-development-index-ranking (accessed 9 January 2022).

27 Riya Sinha and Niara Sareen, ‘India’s Limited Trade Connectivity with South Asia’, (New Delhi: Brookings Institution India Center, May 2020) Policy Brief 0502020-03, p. 5.

28 T. V. Paul, ‘State Capacity and South Asia’s Perennial Insecurity Problems’, in T.V. Paul (Ed.), South Asia’s Weak States: Understanding the Regional Insecurity Predicament, Stanford CA: Stanford University Press, 2010, pp. 18–20.

29 Kishore C. Dash, ‘Dynamics of South Asian Regionalism’, in Mark Beeson and Richard Stubbs (Eds.), Routledge Handbook of Asian Regionalism. London and New York: Routledge, 2012, p. 406.

30 Ibid., pp. 411–412.

31 David M. Malone, Does the Elephant Dance? Contemporary Indian Foreign Policy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011, p. 102.

32 Buzan, ‘The South Asian Security Complex’, op. cit., p. 8.

33 S. D. Muni and C. Raja Mohan, ‘Emerging Asia: India’s Options’. International Studies Vol. 41. Issue 3 (2004): 318.

34 Mushin Puthan Purayil, ‘The Rise of China and the Question of an Indo-US Alliance: A Perspective from India’. Asian Affairs Vol. 52 Issue 1 (2021): 62–78.

35 P. S. Raghavan, ‘The Making of India’s Foreign Policy: From Non-Alignment to Multi-Alignment’. Indian Foreign Affairs Journal Vol. 12. Issue 4 (2017): 326-341; Thorsten Wojczewski, ‘India’s Vision of World Order: Multi-Alignment, Exceptionalism and Peaceful Co-existence’. Global Affairs Vol. 3. Issue 2 (2017): 111–123.

36 Kai He and Mingjiang Li, ‘Understanding the Dynamics of the Indo-Pacific: US-China Strategic Competition, Regional Actors, and Beyond’. International Affairs Vol. 96. Issue 1 (2020): 2.

37 Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai, Triple Axis: Iran’s Relations with Russia and China. London & New York: I.B. Tauris, 2018, p. 3.

38 Ibid., p. 23.

39 American Enterprise Institute, ‘China Global Investment Tracker’, continuously updated, https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/

40 International Monetary Fund, ‘Direction of Trade Statistics’, continuously updated https://data.imf.org/?sk=9D6028D4-F14A-464C-A2F2-59B2CD424B85&sId=1515619375491 (accessed 9 January 2022).

41 World Bank, ‘Ease of Doing Business Rankings’, continuously updated, https://www.doingbusiness.org/en/rankings (accessed 9 January 2022).

42 On these bilateral relationships, see Jonathan Fulton, ‘China-United Arab Emirates Relations in the Belt and Road Era’. Journal of Arabian Studies Vol. 9. Issue 2 (2019): 253-268; Jonathan Fulton, ‘China – Saudi Arabia Relations Through the 1+2+3 Cooperation Pattern’. Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies Vol. 14. Issue 4 (2020): 516–527.

43 On China’s partnership diplomacy, see Georg Strüver, ‘China’s Partnership Diplomacy: International Alignment Based on Interests or Ideology’. The Chinese Journal of International Politics Vol. 10. Issue 1 (2017): 31-65; Jonathan Fulton, ‘Friends with Benefits: China’s Partnership Diplomacy in the Gulf’, in Marc Lynch and Amaney Jamal (Eds.), Project on Middle East Political Science: Shifting Global Politics and the Middle East, 34 (2019): 33–38.

44 Direction of Trade Statistics.

45 China Global Investment Tracker.

46 Gurmeet Kanwal, ‘China’s Long March to World Power Status: Strategic Challenges for India’. Strategic Analysis Vol. 22. Issue 2 (1999): 1721.

47 Dash, op. cit., pp. 411–412.

48 David J. Karl, ‘Sri Lanka, the Maritime Silk Road, and Sino-Indian Relations’, in Jean-Marc F. Blanchard (Ed.), China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative and South Asia: A Political Economic Analysis of its Purposes, Perils, and Promise. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018, pp. 145–146.

49 Jabin T. Jacob, ‘China’s Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia: Unique Characteristics and General Framework’, in Jonathan Fulton (Ed.), Regions in the Belt and Road Initiative. Abingdon and New York: Routledge, 2020, p. 39.

50 Manjeet Pardesi, ‘China and India: The Evolution of a Compound Rivalry’, in Sumi Ganguly, Andrew Scobell and Joseph Chinyong Liow (Eds.), The Routledge Handbook of Asian Security Studies (2nd ed.). Abingdon and New York: Routledge, 2020, p. 172.

51 Buzan, People States and Fear, p. 196.

52 Mahwish Hafeez, ‘India-Iran Relations: Challenges and Opportunities’. Strategic Studies Vol. 39. Issue 3 (2019): 23–26.

53 Sumitha Narayanan Kutty, ‘Dealing with Differences: The Iran Factor in India-U.S. Relations’. Asia Policy Vol. 14. Issue 1 (2019): 95–118.

54 Harsh V. Pant, Indian Foreign Policy: An Overview. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2016, p. 166.

55 Md. Muddassir Quamar, ‘The Changing Nature of the Pakistan Factor in India-Gulf Relations: An Indian Perspective’. Asian Affairs Vol. 49. Issue 4 (2018): 631–634.

56 Pavithra K. M., ‘Remittances to India: Where does the Money Come from and What does it Mean?’ Factly, July 11, 2019, https://factly.in/remittances-to-india-where-does-the-money-come-from-and-what-does-it-mean/ (accessed 9 January 2022).

57 Tsvetana Paraskova, ‘India’s Crude Oil Demand to Rise to 10 Million Bpd in 2040’. Oil Price, September 25, 2018, https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Indias-Crude-Oil-Demand-To-Rise-To-10-Million-Bpd-In-2040.html (accessed 9 January 2022).

58 Md. Muddassir Quamar, ‘Rising US-Iran Hostilities and Challenges for India’. Institute for Defence Studies & Analysis Issue Brief, May 24, 2019.

59 Meena Singh Roy, “Iran: India’s Gateway to Central Asia,” Strategic Analysis, Vol 36. Issue 6 (2012), 972.

60 Harsh V. Pant and Ketan Mehta, ‘India in Chabahar: A Regional Imperative’. Asian Survey Vol. 58. Issue 4 (2018): 665; David Brewster, ‘Beyond the “String of Pearls”: Is there really a Sino-Indian Security Dilemma in the Indian Ocean?’ Journal of the Indian Ocean Region Vol. 10. Issue 2 (2014): 133–149.

61 Ebrahim Fallahi, ‘Iran-China Partnership to Raise Chabahar Port’s Global Status’. Tehran Times, April 27, 2021, https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/460316/Iran-China-partnership-to-raise-Chabahar-port-s-global-status (accessed 9 January 2022).

62 David Brewster, ‘Silk Roads and Strings of Pearls: The Strategic Geography of China’s New Pathways in the Indian Ocean’. Geopolitics Vol. 22. Issue 2 (2017): 269–291.

63 Buzan and Waever, op. cit., p. 43.

64 Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Niv Horesh, How China’s Rise is Changing the Middle East. Abingdon and New York: Routledge, 2020, p. 155.

65 See Jonathan Fulton, ‘Striking a Balance between Economics and Security: China’s Relations with the Gulf Monarchies’, in Jonathan Fulton and Li-Chen Sim (Eds.), External Powers and the Gulf Monarchies. Abingdon and New York: Routledge, 2019, pp. 150–155.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Jonathan Fulton

Jonathan Fulton is an Assistant Professor of Political Science in the College of Humanities and Social Sciences at Zayed University, in Abu Dhabi, UAE, and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.