Impact of politics, economic events and port policies on the evolution of maritime traffic in Chinese ports

Abstract

The Chinese government has been exploring various paths to find a direction that better suits China’s national conditions during the past 60 years. Meanwhile, a series of political and economic events and policy transformations have had different effects on the port industry. This article attempts to ascertain how these events and port policies have influenced Chinese port traffic through an empirical study on data covering 1952–2009. The findings suggest that foreign trade has been the prime driver of the throughput of Chinese ports. The increase in the ports’ throughput has enabled an increase in domestic demand and the urgent need for further port investment. Chinese port throughput has been subject to multiple shocks. The Great Leap Forward¹ is found to have had the largest, but only a short-term impact. China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, however, led to a longer and exclusive effect on ports, with little observed effect on the other variables. The reform of port governance is shown to have had a more lasting positive effect on port throughput than physical investment. However, these latter effects are minor, the economic and political factors remain the primary driving factors of port throughput.

Notes

1. The Great Leap Forward of the People’s Republic of China was an economic and social campaign of the Chinese government implemented during 1958–1961, which aimed to use China’s vast population to rapidly transform the country from an agrarian economy into a modern communist society through the process of rapid industrialization and collectivization. The years of the Great Leap Forward in fact saw economic regression, with 1958 through 1961 being the only years between 1953 and 1983 in which China’s economy saw negative growth.

2. For historical reasons, the data for the port of Hong Kong are not included in China’s statistical yearbooks.

3. The Three Years of Natural Disasters was the period in the People’s Republic of China between the years 1958 and 1961 characterized by widespread famine. Drought, poor weather conditions and the policies of the government contributed to the famine, although the relative weights of the contributions are disputed due to the Great Leap Forward.