Estimating global pattern of LNG supply chain: a port-based approach by vessel movement database

ABSTRACT

This study estimates the port-based global shipping pattern of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from a vessel movement database. In general, the only information related to global shipping available is the vessel movement database; however, this does not include specifics of the cargo, making detailed estimates of the global shipping of any cargo difficult. Therefore, a method based on information from export and import terminals globally is proposed that allows laden or in-ballast shipping to be estimated separately. The estimated results are confirmed to be in agreement with the observed data in terms of the annual country-based and port-based LNG trade. The estimated shipping patterns are then used to examine the components of the LNG supply chain: liquefaction, maritime shipping, regasification and re-export. The entire capacities of most liquefaction plants are used to export LNG, while regasification terminals generally have additional capacity to meet fluctuations in demand and unexpected contingencies. Route choice competitions in global maritime shipping are partially observed in the Suez Canal route, as well as in the Panama Canal after its expansion.

KEYWORDS:

• LNG
• global supply chain
• port-based trade pattern
• vessel movement data
• liquefaction and regasification
• shipping route competition
• Suez Canal
• Panama Canal expansion

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science [17H03327].