Is Structural Change Speeding Up? The Case of Sweden, 1850–2000

Abstract

This article focuses on the importance of structural change on productivity growth and conditions in the labour market. From a productivity perspective, a positive relation is found between structural change and productivity growth from the industrial breakthrough until the first oil crisis. From the early 1970s, this positive relation weakened and eventually became negative as labour moved from high to low productive industries. From a labour market perspective, it is found that extent of sectoral reallocation of labour has become more intense over the twentieth century. The extent of job gains and losses seems to have been more intense during the postwar period than during the industrialization phase.

Keywords:

• Structural change
• productivity
• labour market
• economic growth
• job gains

Notes

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¹⁰Aaronson et al., Sectoral Reallocation; Jacobson et al., Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers.

¹¹Fagerberg, Technological Progress; Peneder, M., Industrial Structure and Aggregate Growth, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, vol. 14, 2003: 427–448.

¹²Pender, Industrial Structure and Aggregate Growth, 427–448.

¹³Fagerberg, Technological Progress; Timmer and Szirmai, Productivity Growth.

¹⁴Krantz, O. and Schön, L., Swedish Historical National Accounts, 1800–2000 (Lund Studies in Economic History 41). Lund: Almqvist & Wiksell International, 2007.

¹⁵Sveriges Offentliga statistik (Official Statistics of Sweden); Folkräkningen (population census), 1910, 1930, 1945; Folk och bostadsräkningen (population and housing census), 1965 and 1990. Data on employment by age is not accessible before 1910 and the last FoB was accomplished for the year 1990.

¹⁶Rissman, E. R., Measuring Labour Market Turbulence, Economic Perspectives, vol. 21, 1997: 2–14.

¹⁷In this article, ‘economically active population’ is defined as persons aged 15–60, and ‘employment rate’ is defined as employed persons as a share of the economically active population. Calculations are based on Krantz and Schön (Swedish Historical National Accounts) and Swedish Official Statistics, population.