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Abstract
Today, one of the greatest challenges facing macroeconomic history is to quantify economic growth in the early modern period. This article presents and discusses a series of total and per capita harvest production in Sweden within present borders for the period 1665–1820. The series is based on three main indices: grain prices, subjective harvest assessments and tithes. Various sources of harvests are more reliable as indicators of relative changes than of absolute levels. For example, tithes probably only taxed between 15 and 60 per cent of the actual harvests, but seem to capture annual harvest fluctuations reasonably well. To estimate the absolute level of per capita harvests, the index of the per capita harvest production is linked to data for the early nineteenth century, which are more reliable. The article argues that harvests stagnated during the studied period, which is in line with several other studies for various European countries. The annual fluctuations were substantial.
Notes
The work on this article has been financed by the Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation. For comments on my work, I want to thank especially Bengt-Åke Berg, Gunnar Eliasson, Torbjörn Engdahl, Bo Franzén, Carl-Johan Gadd, Göran Hansson, Dan Johansson, Lars Jonung, Lotta Leijonhufvud, Angus Maddison and Johan Söderberg. I also want to thank the two anonymous referees who helped improve the article.
2Maddison, Angus, Contours of the World Economy 1–2030: Essays in Macro-economic History. Oxford: Oxford University Press 2007, 294–296.
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6Leijonhufvud, Lotta, Grain Tithes and Manorial Yields in Early Modern Sweden: Trends and Patterns of Production and Productivity c. 1540–1680. Uppsala: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences 2001, 86.
7Persson, Karl-Gunnar, Grain Markets in Europe, 1500–1900: Integration and Deregulation. Port Chester, NY: Cambridge University Press 2000.
8Finland was part of the Swedish-Finnish Kingdom up to 1809. Sweden conquered Jämtland in 1645 and Scania, Halland, Blekinge and Bohus län in 1658.
9Van Zanden, Early modern economic growth, 78.
10Statistics Sweden, Historisk statistik för Sverige. D. 2, Väderlek, lantmäteri, jordbruk, skogsbruk, fiske t.o.m. år 1955. Örebro 1955.
11Gadd, Carl-Johan, Swedish Agricultural Production, 1800–1860. Unpublished paper 2007.
12Available online at: http://www.historia.se/SEHREdvinsson.xls/.
13SOU 2002:118, bilaga 3: Beräkningsrutiner för nationalräkenskaperna. Stockholm 2002, 31.
14Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts, System of National Accounts 1993. Brussels/Luxembourg/New York/Paris/Washington, DC: Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts 1993, 399–401.
15Van Zanden, Early modern economic growth, 68.
16Krantz, En skattning av svensk BNP 1571, 17.
17Gadd, Carl-Johan, Den agrara revolutionen 1700–1870. Stockholm: Natur och Kultur/LTs förlag 2000, 315.
18Gadd, Den agrara revolutionen 1700–1870, 379.
19Gadd, Carl-Johan, Järn och potatis: jordbruk, teknik och social omvandling i Skaraborgs län 1750–1860. Gothenburg: Department of Economic History, University of Gothenburg 1983, 259–270.
20Olsson, Mats, & Svensson, Patrick, Agricultural Production in Scania 1701–1864: Estimates and Explanations. Lund 2007, 25. Available online at: http://www.ekonomiskhistoria.se/file.php?type=document&id=76 (accessed 12 July 2008).
21Morell, Mats, Eli F. Heckscher, utspisningsstaterna och den svenska konsumtionen från 1500-talet till 1800-talet: Sammanfattning och komplettering av en lång debatt. Uppsala: Department of Economic History 1986.
22Sandberg, Lars & Steckel, Richard, Soldier, Soldier, What Made You Grow so Tall? A Study of Height, Health and Nutrition in Sweden, 1720–1881, Economy and History, vol. XXIII, 1980: 2, 91–105.
23Myrdal, Janken, Jordbruket under feodalismen: 1000–1700. Lagersberg: Natur och kultur/LT 1999, 157.
24Allen, Robert, The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War, Explorations in Economic History, vol. 35, 2001: 4, 411–447; Schön, Lennart, Historiska nationalräkenskaper för Sverige: Jordbruk med binäringar 1800–1980. Lund: Ekonomisk-historiska föreningen 1995, 41–44.
25Maddison, Contours of the World Economy 1–2030, 308.
26Utterström, Gustav, Jordbrukets arbetare: Levnadsvillkor och arbetsliv på landsbygden från frihetstiden till mitten av 1800-talet, vol. 1. Stockholm: Tidens Förlag 1957, 875.
27Schön, Historiska nationalräkenskaper för Sverige, 14–20.
28Heckscher, Eli, Sveriges ekonomiska historia från Gustav Vasa, vol. I:2, Bilagor. Stockholm: Bonnier 1936, 19–20; Myrdal, Janken, Jordbruket under feodalismen: 1000–1700. Lagersberg: Natur och kultur/LT 1999, 243–244.
29This is observed for a number of countries (Van Zanden, Early modern economic growth, 83).
30Available online at: http://www.ssd.scb.se/databaser/makro/Produkt.asp?produktid=BE0101 (accessed 11 June 2008).
31Heckscher, Sveriges ekonomiska historia från Gustav Vasa, vol. I:2, 383–384.
32Sundquist, Sigurd, Sveriges folkmängd på Gustaf II Adolfs tid: En demografisk studie. Lund 1938.
33Andersson-Palm, Lennart, Livet, kärleken och döden: Fyra uppsatser om svensk befolkningsutveckling 1300–1850. Gothenburg: Historiska institutionen, Göteborgs universitet 2001.
34Forssell, Hans, Sverige 1571: Försök till en administrativ-statistisk beskrifning öfver det egentliga Sverige, utan Finland och Estland, Vols 1 and 2. Stockholm: P.A. Norstedt & Söner 1872–1883.
35Heckscher, Eli, Sveriges ekonomiska historia från Gustav Vasa, vol. I:1 Stockholm: Bonnier 1935, 29–30.
36See Leijonhufvud, Grain Tithes and Manorial Yields in Early Modern Sweden; Helmfrid, Björn, Tiondelängderna som källa till ett byalags ekonomiska historia 1555–1753. Uppsala: LT:s förlag 1949; Hannerberg, David, Närkes landsbygd 1600–1820: folkmängd och befolkningsrörelse, åkerbruk och spannmålsproduktion. Göteborg 1941; Heckscher, Sveriges ekonomiska historia från Gustav Vasa, vol. I:1.
37Leijonhufvud, Grain Tithes and Manorial Yields in Early Modern Sweden, 53–88
40Hegardt, Astrid, Akademiens spannmål: Uppbörd, handel och priser vid Uppsala universitet 1635–1719. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International 1975, 265–268; Lindgren, Håkan, Spannmålshandel och priser vid Uppsala akademi 1720–1789: En prövning av markegångstaxornas källvärde. Uppsala: Almqvist & Wiksell 1971, 314–315.
41Helmfrid, Tiondelängderna som källa till ett byalags ekonomiska historia 1555–1753. The data has been estimated from diagram 1, since no table is presented for the underlying data.
42Isacson, Mats, 1979, Ekonomisk tillväxt och social differentiering 1680–1860: Bondeklassen i Bysocken, Kopparbergs län. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International 1979, 265–267.
43Söderberg, Johan, Åkerbruk och boskapsskötsel, in Mora: Ur Mora, Sollerö, Venjans och Våmhus socknars historia, vol. 3, Ed. J.-E. Pettersson & O. Karlsson. Mora: Mora kommun 1999, 112–120. Johan Söderberg has been generous in giving me access to his excerpts.
44Hannerberg, Närkes landsbygd 1600–1820, 202–204.
45Olsson & Svensson, Agricultural Production in Scania, 15, 25. Based on since no table is presented with the exact data. The figure shows harvest in hectolitres per mantal. To estimate production per capita, the size of population per mantal must be estimated. Table 6 provides information on the growth of population and production of grains between three benchmark years: 1702, 1780 and 1855, indirectly also population per mantal. To interpolate population per mantal between 1702 and 1780, data on the growth of population of the studied parishes has been used as an indicator.
46Olsson, Mats, Skatta dig lycklig: Jordränta och jordbruk i Skåne 1660–1900. Hedemora: Gidlunds förlag 2005, 201.
47Kellgren, Gunnar, Om skördeföhållandena på Gotland Under Karl XII:s regering, in Karolinska Förbundets Årsbok, 1931, 39.
38Missing data for various counties are estimated by using nearby or similar tithe accounts as indicators for interpolation.
39The growth of population in the different areas is based on Andersson-Palm, Lennart, Folkmängden i Sveriges socknar och kommuner 1571–1997: Med särskild hänsyn till perioden 1571–1751. Gothenburg: University of Gothenburg 2000. An adjustment is made for the lower national population growth that is assumed in this study for the period before 1749. For tithes, the assumption is made that the grain barrel increased linearly from 155.8 litres in 1665 to 163 litres in 1695, and that it contained 163 litres in 1695–1736, 155.8 litres in 1737–1738 and 164.9 litres from 1739 onwards (i.e., in litres of unshuffled grain).
48Rantanen, Marti, Tillväxt i periferin: Befolkning och jordbruk i södra Österbotten 1750–1890. Gothenburg: Department of Economic History, University of Gothenburg 1997, 186.
49This article assumes that one barrel (of 164.9 litres) of rye contained 118 kg, one barrel of barley 104 kg, one barrel of peas 130 kg, one barrel of wheat 128 kg, one barrel of potatoes 115 kg, and one barrel of mixed grain 87 kg, in accordance with assumptions made in earlier research (Åmark, Spannmålshandel och spannmålspolitik i Sverige, 8; Statistics Sweden, Minnesskrift med anledning av den svenska befolkningsstatistikens 200-åriga bestånd. Stockholm 1949, 181). The weight of the smaller barrel before 1739 is assumed to have grown proportionally to the change in its volume measure in litres (see footnote 39)
50Statistics Sweden, Historisk statistik för Sverige. D. 2.
51Leijonhufvud, Grain Tithes and Manorial Yields in Early Modern Sweden, 182.
52Hedqvist, Lars, Subjektiva skördebedömningar under nästan 200 år: Årsväxtrapporteringen 1799–1990, in Svensk jordbruksstatistik 200 år, Ed. C.-J.Gadd & U. Jorner. Örebro: Statistiska centralbyrån 1999, 141.
53See Jörberg, Lennart, A History of Prices in Sweden, 1732–1914, vol. 2. Lund: GWK Gleerup 1972, 69–75; Berg, Bengt-Åke, Volatility, Integration and Grain Banks: Studies in Harvests, Rye Prices and Institutional Development of the Parish Magasins in Sweden in the 18th and 19th Centuries. Stockholm: Stockholm School of Economics 2007, 38.
54Hellstenius, John, Skördarna i Sverige och deras verkningar, Statistisk Tidskrift, 1871:29, 77–127.
55Utterström, Gustav, Jordbrukets arbetare: Levnadsvillkor och arbetsliv på landsbygden från frihetstiden till mitten av 1800-talet, vol. 2. Stockholm: Tidens Förlag 1957, 429–431.
56Imhof, Arthur, Aspekte der Bevölkerungsentwicklung in den nordischen Ländern 1720–1750. T. 2. Bern: Francke 1976, 715–754.
57Axelson, Gustaf, Bidrag till kännedomen om Sveriges tillstånd på Karl XII:s tid. Visby 1888.
58Hannerberg, Närkes landsbygd, 213–214.
59Exactly which numbers should be given is of less importance here, since the national series is later standardized.
60A theoretical standard deviation is calculated when all 24 counties are included, which is compared to the theoretical standard deviation when only the counties are included that are assigned values for the year in question. A correlation matrix of the subjective harvest assessment at county level is estimated for the whole period 1695–1802.
61Further adjustments are made to take into consideration that the theoretical standard deviation (without such adjustments) is different if only one of the series is used instead of the average of the two series.
62Olsson & Svensson, Agricultural Production in Scania.
63The price data is based on Jörberg, A History of Prices in Sweden 1732–1914, vol. 1, for the period from 1732 onwards.
64Based mainly on Hansson, Göran, Såld spannmål av kyrkotionden: priser i Östergötland under Sveriges stormaktstid. Umeå: Umeå University 2006; Andersson Palm, Lennart, Jansson, Arne & Söderberg, Johan, Dagligt börd i onda tider: Priser och löner i Stockholm och Västsverige 1500–1770. Gothenburg: Institutet för lokalhistorisk forskning, University of Gothenburg 1991; Hegardt, Akademiens spannmål; Lindgren, Spannmålshandel och priser vid Uppsala akademi; Åmark, Spannmålshandel och spannmålspolitik i Sverige; Mårtensson, Sture, Bryggerinäringen i Göteborg: Tiden från bryggaregillets tillkomst år 1661 intill 1800-talets början. Gothenburg: Oscar Isacsons Boktryckeri Aktiebolag 1961; Bjurling, Oscar, Skånes utrikessjöfart 1660–1720: En studie i Skånes handelssjöfart. Lund: C.W.K Gleerup 1945.
65See Brolin, Per-Erik, Omdömen om skördarna i Sverige under 1700-talet och början av 1800-talet, Statistisk Tidskrift, 1954:10, 427–436; Jörberg, A History of Prices in Sweden 1732–1914, vol. 2, 69–75.
66The exchange rates of the Swedish riksdaler specie in mark kopparmynt up to 1776, the Swedish riksdaler banco in riksdaler riksgälds 1789–1808 and Hamburger reichstaler banco in riksdaler riksgälds from 1790 onwards have been used for this purpose (see Sveriges Riksbank, Historical Monetary Statistics for Sweden 1668–2008).
67Furtak, Tadeusz, Ceny w Gdansku w latach 1701–1815. Lwów: Sklad Glówny 1935; Pelc, Julian, Ceny w Gdansku w XVI i XVII wieku. Lwów: Sklad Glówny 1937.
68Statistics Sweden, Historisk statistik för Sverige. D. 2.
69The value of 1 kg of mixed grain is assumed to be the same as the value of 1/2 kg of barley and 1/2 kg of oats.
70The t-value of ΔSt is 4.50, of ΔPt –5.07 and of ΔPt-1 2.63. The constant (0.07) does not deviate significantly from zero, although the positive sign is an indication that there was an underlying long-term positive growth of per capita cereal production in 1802–1820.
71For the period 1666–1737, ΔPt is given only half the weight of ΔTt. For the period 1738–1753, equal weights are given to ΔPt, ΔTt and ΔSt. For the period 1754–1779, ΔPt is given the same weight as ΔSt. For the period 1780–1802, ΔPt is given only one third of the weight of ΔSt, due to the long-term rise in the silver price of grain in this period.
72Berg, Volatility, Integration and Grain Banks, 43.
73Gadd, Swedish Agricultural Production.
74Gadd, Den agrara revolutionen 1700–1870, 348.
75Morell, Mats, Studier i den svenska livsmedelskonsumtionens historia: Hospitalhjonens livsmedelskonsumtion 1621–1872. Uppsala: Almqvist & Wiksell International 1989, 260–261.
76Sandberg & Steckel, Soldier, Soldier, What Made You Grow so Tall?
77Sandberg & Steckel, Soldier, Soldier, What Made You Grow so Tall?
78Larsson, Daniel, Den dolda transitionen: Om ett demogrfiskt brytningsskede i det tidiga 1700-talets Sverige. Gothenburg: Gothenburg University 2006, 92.
79Åmark, Spannmålshandel och spannmålspolitik i Sverige.
80Leijonhufvud, Grain Tithes and Manorial Yields in Early Modern Sweden, 238–250.
81Andersson-Palm, Livet, kärleken och döden.
82Van Zanden, Early modern economic growth, 67.
83Gadd, Den agrara revolutionen 1700–1870.
84Persson, Karl-Gunnar, Pre-Industrial Economic Growth: Social Organisation and Technological Progress in Europe. New York: Basil Blackwell 1988, 2–3.