Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games

Abstract

This paper investigates the problem of modeling and forecasting the outcomes of NBA basketball games based on performance statistics. A bivariate normal mean regression model is developed to model the scores and performance statistics. Two methods for forecasting the performance statistics ex ante are proposed in order to predict the outcomes of NBA basketball games, including the final scores of two teams and the probability that a specific team wins the game. Besides, a betting strategy is developed and efficiency tests in the handicap betting market are conducted. Empirical study shows that the proposed model works well.

Keywords:

• NBA outcome forecast
• Bivariate normal mean regression
• Performance statistics
• Betting strategy
• Market efficiency tests

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the editor and the referees for their valuable and helpful comments and suggestions. We also thank Beijing StausWin Lottery Operations Technology Ltd for providing the data.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 These data are obtained from www.nowgoal.com/nba.htm.

2 The reason why we use the average of all the specific team’s historical records instead of the average of last l games is that a higher outcome likelihood, defined in Dixon and Coles (1997), can be gained.

3 We update the training set by adding the latest round of games and removing the same number of games played earliest.

4 For each of the five seasons, the first half season is training set and the second half season is test set.

5 The Markov chain model needs the information of possession transition, which is extracted from play-by-play data. However, we only have such information for matches of 14–15 season. Therefore, this model is only conducted on the 14–15 season.

6 We cannot make profit against the closing line when the performance statistics are predicted by regression model considering its opponent. And the results are available upon request.

7 The betting results with the performance statistics known are not reported but available upon request.