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Abstract
An Application of the Markov Model to Residential Mobility in the Cape
Metropolitan Area.
Studies of residential mobility recognise that the process is responsible for intra-urban change. Static patterns have been overemphasized relative to dynamic processes. This paper reports on research undertaken to empiri- cally evaluate the role of residential mobility in the redistribution of the White population of the Cape Town metropolitan area, with the aid of a simple Markov Chain model. The study is based on the observed pattern for the period 1971- 1976 and projections are made to the year 2000 to high-light expected future changes. The Markov model proves to be an elegant and effective model of the process in spite of its simplicity and constraining assumptions.