USABLE SCIENCE: AN ASSESSMENT OF LONG-TERM SEASONAL FORECASTS AMONGST FARMERS IN RURAL AREAS OF SOURTH AFRICA

ABSTRACT

The science of long-term climate seasonal forecasts is well developed both locally and internationally. While much is done to produce forecasts little has been done to assess their uptake and value particularly for rural farmers in South Africa. The use and uptake of seasonal climate forecasts by ‘emerging’, commercial farmers in the North West Province during the past 1997/98 season (also an El Niño Southern Oscillation event) is examined. Access to resources, credit and a complex history of land ownership by ‘emerging’ and ‘developing’ farmers in South Africa constrains usage of seasonal climate information. Calls for a much more nuanced approach to the investigation and mainstreaming or retailing of the forecasts are made.