Rhetoric or action: Are South African municipalities planning for climate change?

Abstract

In 2008 the South African National Disaster Management Centre commissioned a study into measures taken by local municipalities to plan for climate change. Two areas were selected for their dissimilar climatic challenges: the //Khara Hais Municipality,1 a semi-desert area in the Northern Cape Province plagued by droughts and severe weather events, and the George Municipality, an area in the Western Cape Province plagued by droughts, the rising sea level and flash floods. It was found that despite South African laws and regulations requiring local government to take action to reduce the risk of disasters, planning for climate change is still no more than sophisticated rhetoric in the two municipalities. This lack of urgency can be ascribed to local municipalities having other more pressing developmental priorities. It would, however, be short-sighted of municipalities not to plan for climate change, as major setbacks in hard-won economic and social development follow a disaster.

¹The // spelling represents the click consonant in the Kxoe language that the name comes from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki///Khara_Hais_Local_Municipality

Keywords:

• climate change adaptation
• climate change mitigation
• disaster risk reduction
• local government

1. Introduction

The impact of climate change on human settlements ranges from insignificant to catastrophic. The increasingly clear prognosis of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that hazards and extreme climatic events are increasing in frequency as well as severity (IPCC, 2007; UNISDR, 2010). The consequence is not only bigger losses more often, particularly for the poor, but also shifts in environmental conditions that are bound to have long-term implications for human settlements, particularly for cities in the developing world that are already challenged by a range of socioeconomic development stresses (Parnell et al., 2007:359).

In South Africa, the National Disaster Management Act tasks all spheres of government, in collaboration with civil society, to undertake to protect people, infrastructure and other national assets from the impact of disasters (RSA, 2002). It is therefore the duty of government to plan for climate change adaptation and mitigation to reduce the vulnerability of people, infrastructure and other national assets to climate change, to protect development gains (Bulkeley & Betsill, 2005:2), and to augment social justice by ‘reducing the transfer of environmental costs to other people, other ecosystems or into the future’ (Satterthwaite, 1997:1669).

Limited research has been conducted to determine what local governments in South Africa are doing to pursue these goals. In 2008 the South African National Disaster Management Centre therefore commissioned research into the measures taken by local municipalities in anticipation of and in response to climate change (see Van Niekerk et al., 2009). Rutherford et al. (1999) and Midgley et al. (2005) indicated that the Northern and Western Cape provinces are the regions most at risk from future climate change and climate variation in South Africa, therefore two local municipalities in these provinces, George and //Khara Hais,2 were selected for this study.

George Local Municipality, a coastal area in the Eden District Municipality in the Western Cape Province, is plagued by droughts, flash floods and sea storm surges. //Khara Hais Local Municipality, a semi-desert area in the Siyanda District Municipality in the Northern Cape Province, experiences more frequent severe weather events, such as hail, wind and torrential rain, flash floods, and periodic droughts.

2. Methodology

The unit of analysis chosen for the study was the local municipality. Rural as well as urban areas were included, since the natural environment and the farming, forestry and mining activities comprise an integral part of the urban economy and social texture of both areas.

A transdisciplinary research strategy was pursued to locate diverse sources of local climate knowledge. Desktop studies and in-situ interviews were conducted by researchers active in the fields of disaster risk reduction, urban and regional planning, water management, history and public administration. The researchers also observed the impacts of climate changes where these were visible, for example dustbowls in places that had previously been under cultivation in the region of //Khara Hais, and sand dunes being eroded away from under beach houses in George Municipality.

Farmers in the rural parts of //Khara Hais were interviewed between August and December 2008 to draw on the memory of population groups who have been living in the region for generations. The aim was to collect popular memories of past climatic conditions and discover how the present changes are being interpreted. Substantial and detailed personal oral histories of climate change awareness were collected from farmers in the Northern Cape districts of Gordonia, Upington, the Orange River and Augrabies. To understand how water scarcity might affect the region, the study area was extended to Rietfontein, near Mier, where local irrigation activities have dwindled substantially since the 1980s.

In George a local resident was found to have kept records of local drought and flood events from newspaper articles, which then became a qualitative input in the research project. From this compilation of a chronological list of droughts, floods and damage, it was possible to form an impression of changes in the local climate since the 1960s.

Role players in both municipalities were also interviewed between August 2008 and February 2009 to discover whether they had observed any climate changes and how they thought these had affected local residents, business, agriculture, tourism and the built environment. Interviews were conducted with the disaster managers and the urban planners of the local and district municipalities, the senior manager for social services in George, an employee of the Western Cape Province, the manager of Santam Insurance in //Khara Hais, the chambers of commerce and urban planning consultants and real estate agents in both cities, a journalist in George, and an accountant in //Khara Hais.

In addition to these interviews, a number of strategic development plans, frameworks and instruments at local, district and provincial level3 were compared with the national disaster risk management legislation and regulations to assess their observance of disaster risk reduction requirements and the extent to which climate change adaptation and mitigation are being anticipated and addressed.

3. Climate change in South Africa

3.1 Climate change projections for South Africa

The IPCC projects in its Fourth Assessment Report that all of Africa during all its seasons will warm during the 21st century at rates greater than the global annual mean warming (Christensen et al., 2007:866). Future climate scenarios can be obtained for South Africa and its provinces by using ocean atmosphere general circulation model simulations – dynamically downscaled over southern Africa with a regional climate model (Hewitson & Crane, 2006:1315; Engelbrecht et al., 2009:1014). Under conditions of double the current natural greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations it is projected that by 2050 average temperatures will have risen by 2°C, and minimum winter temperatures by as much as 3°C, in many parts of southern Africa (Tyson & Gatebe, 2001:106; Christensen et al., 2007:866). The only part of South Africa where an increase in annual rainfall is projected is the central interior, though the eastern parts of South Africa may experience increased summer rainfall (Engelbrecht et al., 2009:1014).

Regional projections relevant to this study anticipate that the Northern Cape will become hotter and drier in future because the rain cloud belts that normally bring rain to this region in the late summer will be less frequent on account of the increase in mid-level high-pressure systems and their subsidence over southern Africa (Engelbrecht et al., 2009). The area will also experience higher average temperatures, and increasingly erratic and reduced water supply from the Orange River as larger population concentrations in urban centres and farming settlements upstream could claim more of the available water supplies (DEAT, 1999).

George is renowned for its high rainfall and temperate climate throughout the year, but research indicates that the region is expected to become significantly drier during winter, with an average rainfall decrease of about 20%, because of a projected southerly movement of the cold fronts that bring winter rains to the south and southwestern Cape. The strengthening of subtropical high-pressure belts over South Africa in the winter may cause this projected future movement, shortening the core winter rainy season. Temperatures are expected to rise (Engelbrecht, 2005:57–74; Midgley et al., 2005:28,30; Engelbrecht et al., 2009).

3.2 Climate change concerns in South Africa

It is commonly accepted that climate change-related hazards and the resulting disasters are on the increase (IFRC & RCS, 2007). Municipalities in developing countries experience major setbacks in hard-won economic and social development following such events. Governments in general have insufficient capacity to predict, monitor, mitigate and manage hazards and disasters. Typically in these cases limited funds from longer-term development objectives are diverted to short-term emergency relief and reconstruction needs, frustrating efforts to promote sustainable development (Anderson & Woodrow, 1998:10–1; Annan, 1999:4,5).

South Africa faces increasing occurrences of floods, tornadoes and hailstorms, storms, heavy rain and winds, veldt fires, snow and drought (DPLG, 2006). Urban areas in South Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change related disasters where structural poverty, substandard infrastructure and housing, high population density, economic assets and commercial and industrial activities are concentrated. As a result of rapid urbanisation in South Africa, more and more people have been forced to live on floodplains and unstable hillsides and in sinkhole zones. This has aggravated poverty and destroyed assets, livelihoods and infrastructure (Annan, 1999; World Bank, 2003:xiv, 2006). Almost half the population of South Africa are frequently exposed to multiple hazards and live under conditions of chronic vulnerability to hazards (NPU, 2000; DPLG, 2006).

Despite these adverse effects, cities in South Africa have taken only limited measures to adapt to the potential consequences of climate change (Joubert, 2006:31–2). Municipalities should be asking themselves when, where, to what extent the local climate will change, and how this will affect local residents.

3.3 Climate change adaptation and mitigation

Climate change adaptation and mitigation are two distinct processes, though they have a bearing on one another (Blanco et al., 2009:156). According to the UNFCCC, ‘Adapting to climate change entails taking the right measures to reduce the negative effects of climate change (or exploit the positive ones) by making the appropriate adjustments and changes’ (2007:10). In climate change policy and related literature, ‘mitigation’ refers to the reduction of GHG emissions that are seen as the source of climate change (UNISDR, 2009:19–20).

The way developments are designed and planned for will have a significant impact on future GHG emissions and the ability to adapt to climate change (Bulkeley & Betsill, 2005:176). Sustainable development planning could mitigate negative effects. However, even if GHG emissions are drastically reduced soon, the earth's climate will continue to warm for some time. Many argue that we will inevitably have to adapt to climate change, though adaptation will not solve the long-term problem of damage and increased costs from continued GHG emissions (Hardy, 2003; Munasinghe & Swart, 2005).

Sprawled cities result in functional separation and increased journey distances (Newman & Kenworthy, 1996; Belzer & Autler, 2002; Bart, 2009), creating the decentralisation and dispersal of land uses typical of South African apartheid and early post-apartheid planning practices (DoH, 2004). There are many environmental disadvantages to a car-dependent society. Since ‘it is not sufficient to concentrate on either mitigation or adaptation, but a combination of these results in the most sustainable outcomes’ (Laukkonen et al., 2009:287), the following spatial planning measures have been suggested to promote compact cities and thus help mitigate global warming and adapt to climate change (Hardy, 2003:187, 206; Bulkeley & Betsill, 2005:176–7):

•	Strategic nodes and corridors should be identified (where city features are concentrated and high density, mixed land-use developments are clustered, especially those that provide a service to the community) and public transport routes developed along these corridors, prioritising the needs of pedestrians, cyclists and commuters (Watson et al., 2004; Banister, 2005; Swilling et al., 2008). By integrating land-use and public transport, such developments will promote ‘walkability’, densification, connectivity and sustainability, and also protect low-lying natural landscapes such as parks and open spaces, that could serve as retention ponds when flooding occurs (Belzer & Autler 2002; Behrens & Wilkinson 2003; Banister, 2005; Bart, 2009).
•	Developments should be located at already established nodes rather than at the edges of cities, thus discouraging urban sprawl, enabling the efficient provision of infrastructure, ensuring optimal use of existing resources (Watson et al., 2004; Fraker, 2007), and making it easier to guard against the effects of climate change, for example by providing protective infrastructure.
•	Mixed land-use developments should be encouraged, to restructure fragmented, inequitable and inefficient urban forms. Accommodating residential, commercial and retail uses in one building or development enables people to shop, work and play close to where they live, travel less, and share infrastructure and facilities and adaptation efforts (Belzer & Autler, 2002; Watson et al., 2004; DoH, 2004; Eicker, 2009).
•	Brownfields and vacant sites in the city centre or existing suburbs close to job opportunities and economic activities should be identified for infill development. Households could settle in mixed-use developments close to nodes, relying on already existing infrastructure (DoH, 2004).

The next section considers whether, and how, disaster risk management in the form of climate change adaptation is linked to sustainable development planning in the South African legal framework.

3.4 Institutional framework for urban disaster risk management in South Africa

There is wide consensus among scientists that the challenges of climate change, sustainable development and disaster risk must be addressed in an integrated manner (Brooks, 2003:17; Dayton-Johnson, 2004:46; Schipper & Pelling, 2006:19–38; Carmin et al., 2009). Within South African local government, this integration must be achieved through municipalities' medium to long-term development plans (Van Niekerk, 2006:96), such as the Integrated Development Plan (IDP), Spatial Development Framework (SDF) and Growth and Development Strategy (GDS).

The National Disaster Management Act (RSA, 2002) and the National Disaster Management Framework (RSA, 2005) give priority to developmental measures such as basic public works, municipal services and spatial planning to reduce the vulnerability of disaster-prone areas, and communities and households at risk. They stipulate the following for South African local government development planning:

•	Local disaster risk management centres must assess community and household vulnerability to hazards that could result in a disaster. They must prevent or reduce the risk of disaster by integrating prevention and mitigation methods into development plans, programmes and initiatives, and managing high risk developments (RSA, 2002).
•	Disaster risk management plans must form an integral part of municipal integrated development processes and plans, and anticipate the types of hazards and disasters that are likely to occur (RSA, 2002, 2005).
•	SDFs should reflect and monitor hazard and vulnerability assessments and ensure that relevant spatial information informs disaster risk reduction planning (RSA, 2005).
•	Relevant organs of state must carry out systematic disaster risk assessments as an integral part of the planning phase for large-scale housing, infrastructure or commercial and industrial development. They must ensure that development initiatives are designed to reduce vulnerability as far as possible for disaster-prone areas, communities and households (RSA, 2005).

However, Faling (2008) found that these disaster risk reduction sentiments are not reflected to the same degree of gravity in spatial development planning-related policy and legislation, and climate change is mentioned only in some policies. Planning for climate change and reducing disaster risk are among the most underestimated issues on the agenda for national, provincial and local development planning. Studies by Van Wyk & Delport (2008), Ferreira & Fritz (2009), Basson & Horak (2009), Pewa (2009) and Dlamini (2009) have found that the only province in South Africa with a climate change strategy is the Western Cape, and eThekwini (Durban) and Cape Town are the only metropolitan cities with climate change strategies.

3.5 Barriers to climate change adaptation and mitigation in South Africa

Since cities in the developing world face many challenges when it comes to addressing climate change, strategies for dealing with the change should be integrated with broader sustainable development efforts, but instead they are often addressed in isolation (Hardy, 2003; Munasinghe & Swart, 2005). According to Halsnæs & Verhagen (2007:666) and Roberts (2008:523), this is because local governments are torn between attending to pressing socioeconomic development priorities and introducing environmental concerns into planning processes. Where the day-to-day needs of people are scarcely being met, issues of sustainable development are given only momentary attention and are difficult to reconcile with more immediate priorities.

Another barrier to action is that officials in local municipalities do not understand climate change science and the implications of climate change at a local level. Given their workload, they are not likely to have the time to develop this understanding. Municipalities may also face more pressing environmental problems than climate change (though they might be interrelated). Other problems are insufficient human and financial resources to dedicate to climate change issues, inability to adapt technologically to climate change, failure to incorporate climate change considerations into political and administrative decision making, and the lack of a political champion to drive the climate change programme (Roberts, 2008:525–7).

4. Planning for climate change: Two South African case studies

This section investigates how the two case study municipalities fare in anticipating and planning for climate change.

4.1 //Khara Hais Local Municipality

4.1.1 Socioeconomic profile

//Khara Hais is centrally situated in the Northern Cape Province (see Figure 1), a unique semi-desert area with exceptional natural and cultural attractions. It is by far the largest province in South Africa, but because it is so arid it has the smallest population and thus low densities. It also has the smallest local economy in the country, with agriculture, mining, local commerce and tourism counting as the most significant sectors. Only 25% of the population in //Khara Hais are economically active – mostly in the agricultural sector. The income distribution remains skewed, and socioeconomic pressures such as poverty, poor skills, unemployment, and HIV/AIDS further add to the development constraints in the municipality (//Khara Hais Local Municipality, 2007, 2008; Siyanda District Municipality, 2007, 2008). The area includes extensive stock farms, a narrow strip of intensive irrigation farming settlements about 15 to 20 km apart on both sides of the Orange River, and the city of Upington, founded in 1871 as a mission settlement (Raper & Ball, 2004:387; //Khara Hais Local Municipality, 2007, 2008).

Figure 1: Location of the Siyanda District Municipality in the Northern Cape Province, including the //Khara Hais Local Municipality

4.1.2 Pressure on the environment

//Khara Hais has a semi-arid climate with a hot average daytime temperature. The abundant water supply from the Orange River passing through the city of Upington is the lifeline of the economy, agriculture, urban development, tourism, and fauna and flora. However, the area is periodically threatened by prolonged droughts that often end in severe floods. Intense rainfall makes the area vulnerable by causing erosion, making vegetation unstable and decreasing biodiversity (Oosthuizen & John, 2005). In addition, the water quality has steadily deteriorated over time because of growing agricultural and industrial activities upstream from Upington (//Khara Hais Local Municipality, 2008; Siyanda District Municipality, 2008).

Farms on the banks of the Orange River in the //Khara Hais area produce dates, raisins and wine. According to the IDP manager of the Siyanda District Municipality, some local farmers, trusting that the Orange River will not fail to keep up with the demand for water in this semi-desert area, make injudicious use of fertile land on the floodplains. According to some farmers in the district, this has caused land to become brackish, worsened the water quality, increased pests and weeds, and necessitated expensive rehabilitation of land. Further away from the river, extensive cattle farming frequently over-exploits groundwater resources. Some farms exceed the carrying capacity of their land, causing overgrazing, invasion of alien plant species, a decrease in the carrying capacity of the land and its biodiversity, and an increase in erosion (Meyer, 2001).

Tourist activities also damage the environment through land and water pollution, fires, destruction of the unique fauna and flora with resulting loss of biodiversity, destabilisation of ecosystems, deterioration of gravel roads, and erosion (//Khara Hais Local Municipality, 2008; Siyanda District Municipality, 2008).

4.1.3 Observations on climate change and its impact

We interviewed 31 residents, farmers, business people and officials in the local and district municipalities of //Khara Hais and Siyanda to record what, if any, changes to the climate they have observed. All were conscious of changes. The farmers had noted the weather becoming more erratic and the seasons changing their character – for example summer was starting later in the year and had become hotter and drier with high intensity rainfall. Hailstorms, uncommon for this area, were causing extensive damage, especially to harvests. Townspeople had noticed periodic intense rainfall and strong wind gusts that they had not been aware of a decade ago in Upington. Whenever this occurs, the shopping mall is partly flooded, as the stormwater infrastructure cannot accommodate the run-off.

Farmers usually have one to three days' warning to remove pumps and other equipment when heavy rainfall upstream causes the Orange River to flood, but they often still sustain massive losses. If it rains too often during summer the raisins and dates cannot dry thoroughly. Farmers therefore find it difficult to plan their harvests. In comparison, if the weather does become hotter and drier, cattle farming will become near unfeasible.

The disaster manager was concerned about the poor and the unskilled who are most vulnerable to climatic changes. Informal settlements and former black townships in the urban areas are particularly hard hit by severe weather events, since roads are not tarred, building materials are substandard, construction methods are poor, and stormwater provision is inadequate. He fears that unskilled labourers might flee farms and rural towns when water or employment opportunities on farms and in the smaller towns become scarce (interview, James de Monk, Disaster Manager, //Khara Hais Local Municipality, Upington, 1 December 2008). Planners are concerned that these ‘climate migrants’ may seek security of tenure and access to basic municipal services, schools and clinics in Upington – adding pressure to the already existing backlog in service provision there, with many negative direct and indirect consequences for the district.

Climate change can further lead to significant financial losses. This will not only have a direct impact on the agricultural sector of the district but may also have repercussions for the greater Northern Cape Province. During 2008, R37 million was needed in drought relief because of climate variation in the Northern Cape (Thomas, 2008).

4.1.4 Planning for climate change adaptation and mitigation

The change in the climate of //Khara Hais affects all aspects of life. Local and district councils should respond with spatial planning, land-use management, disaster risk reduction, local economic development and municipal service provision. However, our assessment of the strategic planning documentation of //Khara Hais Local Municipality and Siyanda District Municipality showed that there had been no analysis of the present or future expected impacts of climate change in the district, and there were no policies or directives dealing proactively with climate change. There was also no council resolution to decrease its own GHG emissions.

Many studies (Bulkeley & Betsill, 2005; Carmin et al., 2009; Halsnæs & Verhagen, 2007) propose sustainable development as an effective way to mitigate global warming and adapt to climate change. Several of the strategic planning documents, such as the Siyanda District Municipality GDS (2008), the //Khara Hais Local Municipality IDP (2007), the //Khara Hais Local Municipality SDF (2008) and the disaster risk management plans, encourage sustainability for all future developments in the district. Yet only the //Khara Hais SDF attempts to define sustainable development and explain what it entails and what measures are needed to attain it. One has to conclude that sustainable development remains merely sophisticated rhetoric, with no concrete implementation strategy.

4.2 George Local Municipality

4.2.1 Socioeconomic profile

The George Local Municipality is situated on the Garden Route halfway between Cape Town and Port Elizabeth in the Western Cape Province (see Figure 2). It lies between the Outeniqua Mountains and the Indian Ocean, 200 metres above sea level. The city of George was founded in 1812 under the British administration and became a major administrative centre in the southern Cape. The municipal area includes the City of George (including Pacaltsdorp and Thembalethu), the towns of Wilderness and Harold's Bay, coastal resorts such as Victoria Bay and Kleinkrantz, productive land for agriculture and forestry, pristine national parks, areas of indigenous vegetation, and an unspoilt coastline (George Local Municipality, 2007b, 2008a).

The George economy is well balanced and diverse, rooted in agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, trade and business. As the business and economic hub of the southern Cape, George has considerable growth prospects which strongly relate to the natural resource endowment of the municipal area. Agriculture is a major land-use in the municipal area outside the City of George, covering a large percentage of its land (Eden District Municipality, 2006; George Local Municipality, 2007a). As elsewhere in South Africa, the lowest income groups in George live furthest from job opportunities. Unemployment and poverty are major social issues and the George economy is not able to absorb the many unskilled migrants from the Eastern Cape who are making their home in George (Eden District Municipality, 2006; George Local Municipality, 2008a).

Figure 2: Location of the Eden District Municipality in the Western Cape Province, including the George Local Municipality

4.2.2 Pressure on the environment

Natural vegetation in George forms an important part of the Cape Floral Kingdom – one of the richest floras in the world. This vegetation is threatened by the reduction in water quality and quantity, pollution and eutrophication, the introduction of invasive alien species, agricultural activities and urban expansion. The George economy was traditionally based on forestry and agriculture. Commercial forests were established on large areas cleared of natural vegetation, transforming the natural environment that protected the steep slopes of river gorges. Forestry and agriculture are now threatened by urban expansion onto scarce, high potential remaining farmland, the development of golf estates, the provision of land for small farmers, and an increase in the demand for water. Water consumption in George has increased to the extent that the demand exceeds the availability (George Local Municipality, 2007b, 2008b).

Many urban developments have been established along the coastal zone, causing increased pollution in the form of sewage and effluents released into the marine environment. These developments have a destabilising effect on the environment. They disrupt natural drainage systems and cause run-off to become unstoppable, resulting in heavy losses of property and infrastructure. Economic, industrial and commercial activities also negatively affect the environment because of changes in land use and increased production and release of wastes. In addition, tourism has boosted recreational activities on the estuaries and the coastline, increasing the pressure on resources in the coastal zone (George Local Municipality, 2007b, 2008b; Eden District Municipality, 2008b).

4.2.3 Observations on climate change and its impact

It seems that climatic changes have a more pronounced impact on life in George than in //Khara Hais. Residents, businesses, farmers and local and district government officials are quite concerned about the phenomenon. Townspeople have observed longer periods of drought during winter (the rainy season) combined with bursts of torrential rainfall – to the extent that they experience ‘green droughts’ (on the surface it looks green, but there is a general lack of water).

An official of the Western Cape Province has noticed that each flash flood is heavier than the last, and the natural environment does not recover from the damage in time to face the next severe weather event (personal communication, Dawie de Villiers, Western Cape Provincial Department of Agriculture, George, 3 December 2008). The many ravines and built-up areas help to channel the strong run-off and flash floods after heavy downpours. This increased intensity in precipitation, and the resulting increase in run-off, causes landslides, erodes riverbanks, and damages irrigation infrastructure. The distance from the watershed to the sea is only 10 km, so river mouths, coastal towns and farms in the district are very vulnerable to flash floods coming down the numerous valleys. An early warning system would therefore not be as effective in George as it would be in //Khara Hais.

Some interviewees mentioned that in 2006 severe weather events and the spring tide occurred simultaneously. The Kaaimans Bridge between George and Wilderness collapsed and several roads were impassable, with the result that George, Wilderness and quite a few outlying farms were cut off from each other. George was also cut off from Oudtshoorn because of rockslides in the Outeniqua Pass. The water supply to some towns was disrupted, stormwater pipes burst, streets and houses in the coastal towns of Victoria and Harold's Bay were flooded, and sand dunes were washed away from under houses in Wilderness. According to a planner at the Eden District Council, the district has experienced five major disasters in the coastal areas in seven years.

Losses associated with these climatic events are high. In the southern Cape, regional damage estimates amount to more than R2 billion due to severe weather events and flooding between 2003 and 2008 (see Table 1).

Table 1: Damage estimation of severe weather events in the southern Cape region (2003–08)

Year	Date commenced	Duration	Precipitation (mm)	Damage estimation (ZAR)
2003	24 March	2 days	287	R250 000 000 (combined)
2003	10 May	2 hours	73
2004	22 December	45 min	243	R23 000 000 (combined)
2005	14 January	90 min	90
2006	1 August	3 days	378	R712 000 000
2007	22 November	3 days	539	R1 069 000 000
2008*	–	–	–	R8 000 000
Total damages				R2.062 billion
*Data for 2008 are incomplete.
Source: Western Cape Provincial Gazette (2005); Holloway (2007); Steyn (2008); Verslagspan (2008).

The people most vulnerable to climate change in George are the poor, who often live in informal settlements on floodplains or hillsides. George is also a safe haven for people fleeing crime in the metropolitan cities. People from landlocked provinces own holiday homes in the district, others flee the Karoo droughts, or retire in George. According to the Chamber of Business, many local and international tourists come to Glentana, Victoria Bay and Harold's Bay, but return home or leave for other parts of the country if it rains heavily during the holiday seasons. This has a huge impact on tourist businesses.

4.2.4 Planning for climate change adaptation and mitigation

Though the threat of climate change is mentioned in a number of local strategies, no measures for adapting are offered. Sustainable development is advocated and promoted in many documents such as the Eden District Municipality's SDF (2003), GDS (2007) and IDP (2008a), as well as the George Local Municipality's SDF (2007b, 2008a,b). However, the local municipality is so overwhelmed by the task of providing for people's basic needs and creating a decent living environment for the poor that climate change is not a priority.

The Western Cape Provincial Government has conducted a vulnerability and adaptation assessment of the effects of climate change on the province (Midgley et al., 2005) and developed a comprehensive climate change strategy and action plan, the first regional climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy in Africa (DEA&DP, 2008). For the objectives of the strategy to be achieved throughout the province, the overall strategy needs to be translated into local strategies and efforts. At the time of writing this had not yet been done.

Given the significance of global warming and climate change, the two study areas need sustainable development measures that specifically integrate adaptation and mitigation measures into development planning. They also need concrete action plans identifying localities, allocating budgets and identifying responsible people.

5. Conclusion

National legislation and regulations require disaster prevention and mitigation methods to be integrated into development plans and frameworks. However, although //Khara Hais and George residents are concerned about the effect of climate change on business, agriculture, tourism and the built environment, this study found that climate change is not specifically addressed in any of the two local municipalities' strategic development planning documentation to help build resilience to climate change impacts at the local level. Sustainable development is advocated in many of the documents, but no link is made to climate change adaptation and mitigation.

The authors conclude that disaster risk reduction in general, and climate change adaptation and mitigation in particular, remain merely sophisticated rhetoric and are not yet institutionalised in the practice of decision making in these two local municipalities. This is probably true of most local municipalities in the developing world, possibly because there are more pressing day-to-day housing, education, services and health needs and these are scarcely being met. However, it would be short-sighted of municipalities not to plan for climate change, as weather-related disasters cause major setbacks in hard-won economic and social development, and scarce funds from longer-term development objectives are diverted to short-term emergency relief and reconstruction.

There are, however, some exceptions in South Africa. Cape Town has implemented coastal management plans as part of its Coastal Zone Management Strategy and a climate change adaptation plan is in the making that will include a framework of action (interview, Gregg Oelofse, Head: Environmental Policy and Strategy, City of Cape Town, 5 February 2010). It has also developed a storm surge model, to determine areas at risk and set up strategies involving managed retreat, coastal defences and extension of the beach area.

Worldwide, more mitigation than adaptation examples are available, but a few cities in developing countries are also concentrating on adaptation. Examples include Durban, which has a Climatic Future for Durban and Headline Adaptation Strategy (Carmin et al., 2009:6–9), Quito in Ecuador, which formalised a climate change strategy in 2008 (Carmin et al., 2009:14), Dhaka in Bangladesh, which has combined its strategic framework with a locally informed model of sustainable development (Roy, 2009:276), and various coastal cities in China, which are planning for the effect of a rising sea level (Pewa, 2009:25).

To plan adequately for climate change, interventions at various levels of government and civil society are necessary. It remains challenging to budget for an item such as ‘climate change adaptation’. Visser & Van Niekerk (2009) recommend that to budget for adaptation and mitigation costs, organs of state should use the current funding mechanisms. The authors recommend that local government plans for climate change should include: 1) translating national and international disaster risk reduction requirements into local initiatives with a concrete agenda and budget allocation for implementation; 2) conducting local disaster risk assessments to determine the present and future threats from climate change, and formulating specific, contextualised adaptation strategies to be integrated with the strategic development plans; 3) introducing land-use management measures that strive to reduce the vulnerability of poor communities, and ensuring that buildings and infrastructure are resilient and can maintain essential services during extreme climate events; 4) monitoring and reporting on climate change initiatives, to prevent these being pushed from the agenda by more pressing developmental issues; 5) reducing local government's operational impact on the environment; and 6) promoting the implementation of greener technologies in all future development planning.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the South African National Disaster Management Centre for funding this research.

Notes

¹The // spelling represents the click consonant in the Kxoe language that the name comes from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki///Khara_Hais_Local_Municipality

²The // spelling represents the click consonant in the Kxoe language that the name comes from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki///Khara_Hais_Local_Municipality

³At local level we looked at Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) and Spatial Development Frameworks (SDFs); at district level IDPs, SDFs, Growth and Development Strategies (GDSs), Local Economic Development (LED) strategies and the State of the Environment Report; and at national level the Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan for the Western Cape Province.