Promise or precarity? South African attitudes towards the automation revolution

ABSTRACT

Rapid technological advancement has prompted growing debate about the promise and challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) for societies. Some believe it will improve efficiency, productivity and quality of life, while others emphasise the risk of job loss, inequality and social exclusion. Despite the salience of these changes for human development, public opinion research on these issues remains limited in South Africa. Using data from the South African Social Attitudes Survey (SASAS), we examine the extent and determinants of the public’s acceptance of robots and automation. The findings suggest that aversion to such technological change remains fairly high, and is informed by age, class, perceived labour market vulnerability, scientific knowledge, and confidence in government to manage adverse human consequences. The article concludes by arguing that national 4IR policy framework needs to consider the reservations expressed by many South Africans, and develop measures to protect the dignity and well-being of citizens across the life course.

KEYWORDS:

• Robots
• automation
• survey
• public opinion
• South Africa

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• O55
• O33
• J24
• O15

Acknowledgements

All opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors alone and not those of any other person or organisation.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Studies on the effects of age on attitude towards technology show mixed results although there is some evidence that age reduces affinity for technology (Chua et al., 1999). Most of the existing work in South Africa on attitudes towards technology (e.g. Anthony et al., 2000) is based on small unrepresentative samples and it is difficult to generalise the findings from this research to a national picture.

2 In the 2015 SASAS round, around three-fifths (73%) of South Africans subjectively reported having little or no knowledge of biotechnology, while only 11% indicating that they knew enough about it to explain it to a friend (Gastrow et al., 2018:3). Stocks of knowledge tend to be inversely associated with age and positively correlated with educational attainment and other class measures.

3 Repeat cross-sectional public opinion data suggests that public views on robotics and automation have become more negative over the 2012–17 period in Europe. This appears to be driven mainly by changing attitudes towards their use in the workplace, and robot-optimistic countries becoming more circumspect (Gnambs & Appel, 2019). This could suggest that people become more anxious as the topic gains more prominence in the national conversation.

4 The survey questions on skills proficiency were introduced in the following manner: ‘The most recent computer and Internet technologies are more and more present in daily life. They offer new products and services that are changing the way we live and work. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding your skills in the use of computer and Internet technologies?’.

5 A derivation of the term ‘robot policeman’ applied to early traffic lights, which replaced police officers serving as points persons at major road intersections. As an indication of the prevalence of this, the Oxford Bilingual isiZulu/English School Dictionary (De Schryver, 2015) employs an example under the entry on ‘robot’ as follows: ‘There were beggars standing at the robots’.

6 These scores were observed for the following categories of South Africans: white adults; teenagers aged 16–19 years; high levels of knowledge of 4IR concepts; strong trust in government’s ability to manage 4IR-related labour market disruption; employed but not worried about personal 4IR job threat; the tertiary-educated; and those with high self-rated ICT proficiency.

7 Although medical deliveries by drone are occurring in African nations, such as Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Rwanda and Tanzania, this is not yet common in South Africa. In Europe, at least 11 countries have experimented with drone delivery. Drone postal and goods delivery programmes are underway in Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland and the UK, while drone-based medical deliveries taking place in Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland (UAS Traffic News Management, 2019).

8 The question is phrased as follows: ‘In our society there are groups which tend to be towards the top and groups which tend to be towards the bottom. Below is a scale which runs from top to bottom. Where would you put yourself now on this scale?’. A 10-point response scale is used, ranging from 1 (bottom) and 10 (top). The subjective social class question establishes perceptions of place in the social hierarchy by means of a measure that has been routinely employed by the International Social Survey Programme since the late 1980s (Evans & Kelley, 2004).

9 In comparison to men, women were less likely be employed, and tended to report slightly lower subjective social position, knowledge of 4IR concepts, and confidence in government.

Additional information

Funding

The authors acknowledge the funder of the analysis presented in this study, namely the DST-NRF Centre of Excellence in Human Development, based at the University of the Witwatersrand (Grant OPP2019-4IRHD-6).