Choosing Transformation over Crisis in the Levant

Abstract

A brief window of opportunity for an Israeli-Palestinian peace process has opened up since the Hamas-Fatah confrontation in Gaza in June. Yet the governments of both Israel and Palestine are weak, and if they fall, this could cause further instability and violence. More robust international involvement is required, including closer coordination and consultation between the Quartet and the Arab Quartet. A comprehensive process towards a final-status deal must be undertaken. This would include a new timetable for implementation of existing framework agreements, an international implementation and enforcement mechanism with close monitoring and compliance facilities, and a built-in conflict resolution mechanism to help the parties overcome disagreements in the process. Once serious progress is made on the peace front with the current Palestinian government, a concerted effort will have to be made to promote Fatah-Hamas reconciliation with a view to reintegrating Hamas into the political process.

Notes

¹ World Bank, “Two Years after London”, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWESTBANKGAZA/Resources/AHLCMainReportfinalSept18&cover.pdf

² A poll by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research in September 2007 found that Hamas’ popularity had dropped to 31 percent from 33 percent in June and 37 percent in March http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2007/p25e1.html#peace4

³ Dan Murphy, “Israeli amnesty offer divides militants”, Christian Science Monitor, 23 July 2007 http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0723/p07s02-wome.htm

⁴ World Bank, “Two Years after London”, 2.

⁵ Quartet statement, 27 June 2007 http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2007/jun/87431.htm.

⁶ For a detailed analysis of US and EU policy towards Hamas, see Tocci, What Went Wrong?

⁷ Cam Simpson, “What if Israel Talked to Hamas?”, Wall Street Journal, 1 August 2007.

⁸ A poll conducted by HaGal HaHadash in Israel in July 2007, published in English on 17 July 2007, found that 66 percent of the Israeli population supports immediate resumption of final status negotiations with PA President Abbas http://www.geneva-accord.org/General.aspx?docID=2142&FolderID=45&lang=en. A poll by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research in September 2007 found that 57 percent of the Palestinian public supports a two-state solution, with 58 percent also favouring negotiation of a provisional Palestinian state's borders, followed by talks on permanent borders, refugees and the holy places http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2007/p25e1.html

⁹ http://www.geneva-accord.org/general.aspx?FolderID=250&lang=en

¹⁰ For a full analysis of the Road Map and the need for an enhanced and robust third party role to ensure its implementation, see Bar-Yaacov, “New Imperatives for Israeli-Palestinian Peace”, 72–90.

¹¹ For a fill list of arms acquired by Hamas in June, see Francona, “Hamas's Military Capabilities”.

¹² Brown, “The Peace Process Has No Clothes”.

¹³ Yusuf, “A Reaction to Unacceptable Provocation”, 4.

¹⁴ For details, see ICG, After Gaza.

¹⁵ Sayigh, “Inducing a Failed State in Palestine”, 29.

¹⁶ For a detailed analysis of security sector reform in Palestine, see Bar-Yaacov, “Turning Swords into Ploughshares”.

¹⁷ For a summary of detailed discussions held in Gaza on Palestinian security sector reform, see Younis, “Moving Forward or Backward” http://www.dcaf.ch/news/_diarydetailskms.cfm?lng=en&id=30692& nav1=2

¹⁸ World Bank, “Two Years after London”, 2.

¹⁹ Ibid., 19–20

²⁰ “Fatah has begun to fight back”, The Economist, 4 October 2007. http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9912646

²¹ “Boost here, squeeze there”, The Economist, 4 October 2007. http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9912432