Linking Public Opinion and Foreign Policy in Russia

ABSTRACT

Empirical studies in democracies have revealed some degree of causal relationship between public opinion and foreign policy. A look at the relationship between the evolution of Russian foreign policy priorities, as evidenced in the Foreign Policy Concepts (2000, 2008, 2013 and 2016), and public opinion regarding foreign policy measured from 1997 to 2018 shows significant shifts in perceptions of the nation’s international image. The amity/enmity feelings towards others can be explained as responses to key international events, endorsing the thesis of a rational and reactive public. Overall, public opinion and the official policy line in Russia move in the same direction.

KEYWORDS:

• foreign policy
• foreign policy attitudes
• Russia
• United States
• European Union
• China

Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful for the valuable comments made by Richard Eichenberg, Pierangelo Isernia, Francesco Olmastroni, Thomas Scotto and other participants of the ECPR Joint Sessions Workshop on “Public opinion, foreign policy and the use of force in turbulent times”, Nottingham, in April 2017. Additionally, this article would not have appeared without the assistance of Ilya Lokshin, Associate Professor at the HSE School of Politics and Governance, Moscow.

Notes

¹ The images Russian citizens have of foreign countries are composed of two basic elements – the first is more volatile and involves reactions to international events, the second concerns more stable perceptions of a foreign country’s status in world politics, its cultural and economic achievements.

² For the data obtained from the Levada Centre surveys, the average shares of respondents unable to specify their attitudes to a particular country were 11% for the US, 15% for the European Union, 13% for China, 10% for Ukraine, 13% for Georgia, and 8% for Belarus.

³ The Levada Centre holds monthly omnibus surveys – a country-wide poll of the urban and rural population over age 18 based on a representative sample of 1,600 people from 130 settlements in 45 regions of the Russian Federation. The survey is organised as a face-to-face interview at the home of the respondents. A typical questionnaire consists of 80-100 questions. http://www.levada.ru/en/methods/omnibus.

⁴ The last survey taken into consideration was from March 2018.

⁵ Since we had very few measurements for the period from 1990 to 1996 (mainly for the US), these data points were not included in the graphs.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Anna Efimova

Anna Efimova is a Visiting Scholar at the School of Politics and Governance, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia.

Denis Strebkov

Denis Strebkov is Assistant Professor at the Department of Sociology, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia. Email: [email protected]