Change or Continuity in Russia’s Strategy towards Secessionist Regions in the ‘Near Abroad’?

ABSTRACT

The 2008 invasion of Georgia, followed by the recognition of the independence of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the annexation of Crimea and the involvement in the war in Donbas, and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine have all marked the return to active Russian participation in separatist regions in the ‘near abroad’. They took the international community by surprise. To be sure, the Russian Federation had played a role in all previous secessionist conflicts in the former Soviet space. Nonetheless, Moscow’s post-2008 bold actions – open invasion, recognition of separatist regions and annexation of a neighbour’s territory – have marked an innovation in Russia’s foreign policy. This points to questions about how Moscow is legitimising these actions and whether the official narrative suggests a change in Russia’s strategy towards secessionist conflicts in the ‘near abroad’.

KEYWORDS:

• frozen conflicts
• Russian foreign policy
• near abroad
• Crimea
• Ukraine
• legitimisation

Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank New Europe College – Institute for Advanced Studies in Bucharest for the support in conducting this research project and the European Council on Foreign Relations, Paris office, for hospitality while writing this article.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 By using this term, we do not mean to suggest that the Kremlin has special rights in the former Soviet republics, but emphasise the Russian perspective towards this area.

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Notes on contributors

Vasile Rotaru

Vasile Rotaru is a Senior Researcher in International Relations at the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, Bucharest, Romania.