Chapter four: Dismantlement

Abstract

For over three decades, driven by the core motive of deterring external threats to its security, Libya sought to acquire nuclear weapons. Having attempted but failed to procure them ‘off the shelf’ from several states during the 1970s, by late 2003 it had succeeded in assembling much of the technology required to manufacture them. Nevertheless, following secret negotiations with the UK and US governments, in December 2003 Colonel Muammar Gadhafi resolved to abandon the pursuit of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. This decision reflected the regime's radically altered security perceptions during the 1990s and early twenty-first century. The pursuit of nuclear weapons had come to be viewed as a strategic liability.

This Adelphi Paper examines the motives for Libya's pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, from Gadhafi's rise to power in 1969 through to late 2003. It assesses the proliferation pathways that the regime followed, including early dependence on Soviet technology and assistance and, subsequently, its reliance on the A.Q. Khan network. It examines the decision to give up the quest for nuclear weapons, focusing on the main factors that influenced the regime's calculations, including the perceived need to re-engage with the international community and the United States in particular. The process of dismantling the nuclear programme is also addressed, as is the question of whether Libya constitutes a ‘model’ for addressing the challenges posed by other proliferators.

Notes

¹ Mahley, ‘Dismantling Libyan Weapons’, p.4.

² DeSutter, Hearing before the Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Human Rights, 22 September 2004.

³ The British and American governments helped Libya to get involved with the OPCW because it was not a member. This was obviously not the case with the IAEA.

⁴ ‘IAEA Director General to Visit Libya’, IAEA Press Release 2003/14, 22 December 2003: http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/PressReleases/2003/prn200314.html.

⁵ ‘IAEA Verification of Libya's Nuclear Programme: Board Adopts Resolution, Libya Signs Additional Protocol’, IAEA Staff Report, 10 March 2004: http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/2004/libya_ap1003.html.

⁶ ‘Libya ratifies the CTBT’, Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organisation Press Release, 14 January 2004: http://www.ctbto.org/press_centre/press_release.dhtml?item=217; ‘Libya signs accord for enhanced inspections by UN nuclear watchdog agency’, UN News Service, 10 March 2004: http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=10026&cr=libya&cr1=.

⁷ DeSutter, Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 26 February 2004.

⁸ See Patrick E. Tyler, ‘Libya's Atom Bid in Early Phases’, New York Times, 30 December, 2003; Louis Charbonneau, ‘Libya never got nuclear plans off ground- Diplomats’, Reuters, 15 January 2004; ‘Libya meets with UN nuclear inspec tors’, Reuters, 20 December 2003; ‘Nuke Teams Set To Disarm Libya’, CBS News, 20 January 2004.

⁹ Jack Boureston and Yana Feldman, ‘Verifying Libya's Nuclear Disarmament’, Verification Yearbook 2004 (London: VERTIC 2003), pp.90–92: http://www.vertic.org/assets/YB04/Boureston-Feldman%209.pdf.

¹⁰ ‘ElBaradei: Libya helping with nuclear black market “puzzle”’, USA Today, 24 February 2004.

¹¹ DeSutter, Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 26 February 2004.

¹² Boureston and Feldman, ‘Verifying Libya's Nuclear Disarmament’, pp.90–92.

¹³ DeSutter, Hearing before the Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Human Rights, 22 September 2004.

¹⁴ ‘Madmen, Rogues & Nukes’, MSNBC News, 11 October 2004.

¹⁵ DeSutter, Hearing before the Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Human Rights, 22 September 2004; DeSutter, ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction, Terrorism, Human Rights and the Future of US–Libyan Relations’, Testimony before the House International Relations Committee, 10 March 2004, http://www.state.gov/t/vc/rls/rm/2004/30347.htm; Director General, IAEA, Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement, 28 May 2004, pp.4–5.

¹⁶ DeSutter, Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 26 February 2004.

¹⁷ DeSutter, Hearing before the Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Human Rights, 22 September 2004.

¹⁸ Dunne, ‘Libya: Security is Not Enough’, pp.1–7.

¹⁹ Squassoni and Feickert, ‘CRS Report for Congress: Disarming Libya’, p.3.

²⁰ Joffé, ‘Libya: Who Blinked and Why’, p.225.

²¹ DeSutter, Hearing before the Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Human Rights, 22 September 2004.

²² ‘Removal of High-Enriched Uranium in Libyan Arab Jamahiriya’, IAEA Staff Report, 8 March 2004: http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/2004/libya_uranium0803.html; DeSutter, Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 26 February 2004; ‘Libya Sends Tajura HEU to Russia, Prepares to Convert Reactor to LEU’, NuclearFuel, vol.29, no.6, 15 March 2004, p.4.

²³ ‘US Eases Economic Embargo Against Libya’, The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, 23 April 2004: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/04/20040423-9.html.

²⁴ DeSutter, Hearing before the Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Human Rights, 22 September 2004.

²⁵ Salah Sarrar, ‘US Resumes Diplomatic Ties With Libya’, Reuters, 28 June 2004.

²⁶ ‘Blair Visits Libya, Continuing a Thaw’, Associated Press, 25 March 2004.

²⁷ ‘Libyan Leader Embraces West’, BBC News Online, 27 April 2004.

²⁸ DeSutter, Hearing before the Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Human Rights, 22 September 2004.

²⁹ ‘Memorandum for the Secretary of State’, Presidential Determination No.2004-44, 10 September 2004, The White House: http://www.whitehouse.gov.edgesuite.net/news/releases/2004/09/20040910-12.html.

³⁰ Kerr, ‘Libya Pledges Military Trade Curbs, but Details Are Fuzzy’, Arms Control Today, June 2004: http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2004_06/Libya.asp.

³¹ Bolton, ‘Libya Ending Military Trade with States of Serious Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation Concern’, Daily Press Briefing, 13 May 2004: http://www.state.gov/p/nea/rls/rm/32491.htm; Kerr, ‘Libya Pledges Military Trade Curbs, but Details Are Fuzzy’.

³² ‘State Department Highlights Positive Developments in Libya’, 21 September 2004, Office of the Spokesman, US State Department: http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfile-english&y=2004&m=September&x=20040921190033ndyblehs0.3046381.

³³ Judy Aita, ‘Powell Meets with Libyan Foreign Minister’, Washington File, US State Department, 24 September 2004.

³⁴ Binyon, ‘West beats path to forgive Libya its pariah status’; Michael Knipe, ‘Libya set for European embrace’, The Times, 18 January 2005; ‘Gaddafi's son being groomed to take over’, The Straits Times (Singapore), 15 October 2004; Ahto Lobjakas, ‘EU: Arms Embargo on Libya Lifted, But Decision On China Delayed’, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 12 October 2004.

³⁵ DeSutter, Hearing before the Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Human Rights, 22 September 2004.

³⁶ Outstanding issues in the chemical arena included the destruction of chemical agents and precursors. Libya was given five years to convert its Scud-B ballistic missiles to fall within the parameters of the MTCR (300km range, 500kg payload).

³⁷ ‘Russia Delivers Low-Enriched Uranium To Libya’, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 23 December 2005.

³⁸ Kerr, ‘IAEA: Questions Remain About Libya’.

³⁹ ‘Report: Libya, Egypt Swapped Nukes’, United Press International, 31 March 2004.

⁴⁰ Mahley, ‘Dismantling Libyan Weapons’, p.7. See also Khalaf and Fidler, ‘Safe jobs sought for Libya's weapons scientists’, Financial Times, 30 April 2004, p.8.

⁴¹ ‘President Announces New Measures to Counter the Threat of WMD’, Remarks by President G. W. Bush, National Defense University, 11 February 2004: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/02/20040211-4.html.

⁴² Squassoni and Feickert, ‘CRS Report for Congress: Disarming Libya’, p.6.

⁴³ ‘Countering the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction’, Written Ministerial Statement by Straw, UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, 25 February 2004: http://www.fco.gov.uk/servlet/Front?pagename=OpenMarket/Xcelerate/ShowPage&c=Page&cid=1007029391629&=KArticle&aid=1077043155337.

⁴⁴ Bolton, ‘Lessons from Libya and North Korea's Strategic Choice’, Address at Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea, 21 July 2004: http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/dprk/2004/07/dprk-040721-34538pf.htm.

⁴⁵ Richard Stone, ‘Agencies Plan Exchange With Libya's Former Weaponeers’, pp.185–6.