Environmentally Sustainable Agriculture and Future Developments of the CAP

Abstract

Recent reforms of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) have set in motion a process of increased market orientation in the agricultural sector, a process that will be intensified by trade liberalization if an agreement is reached under the World Trade Organization (WTO). It is widely expected that both CAP reforms and a WTO agreement will also lead to a more environmentally friendly European agriculture. It is conceivable, however, that market demand would instead provide renewed incentives for intensive agricultural production. Opening European agriculture to more competition in the world market could increase pressure to slacken regulatory requirements on agriculture. Thus, the question of whether liberalization will hinder or promote environmentally sustainable production methods in agriculture is unresolved. This paper analyses different scenarios of agricultural policy development and examines their consequences for the promotion of environmentally sustainable agriculture in the EU.

Key Words:

• Policy analysis
• agriculture policy
• environmental policy
• liberalization
• WTO
• agricultural subsidies

Notes

1. Interview with one of the authors, January 2007. Some interviewees requested anonymity and we have therefore not attributed specific statements to individuals. Interviews are listed under references.

2. Interviews with one of the authors, January 2007.

3. Ibid.

4. Ibid.

5. The Doha Round of negotiations broke down in July 2008, but efforts to resume them continued throughout the fall and winter of 2008–2009. Analysts speculate that the next genuine window of opportunity for reaching an agreement will be in 2010 when new administrations are in place in the US and the EU and after an election in India (interview, Daugbjerg 2008).

6. The delineation of policy scenarios was based on interviews with high‐ranking officials within, or associated with, EU institutions, cf. the list of references. The interviewees were selected for their intimate knowledge of ongoing policy discussions as well as of previous reform processes; furthermore, they are individually well positioned to reflect on the different factors that may affect future policy developments. Each interview lasted up to two hours and focused on questions about expected short‐term and long‐term developments in agricultural policies as well as the main forces driving each of these trends.

7. Interviews with one of the authors, January 2007.

8. Ibid.

9. Ibid.

10. Ibid.

11. Ibid.

12. Ibid.

13. Ibid.

14. Ibid.

15. Ibid.

16. Ibid.

17. Ibid.