Interaction Between Autocorrelation and Conditional Heteroscedasticity: A Random-Coefficient Approach

Abstract

In applied econometrics, we tend to tackle specification problems one at a time rather than considering them jointly. This has serious consequences for statistical inference. One example of this is considering autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) separately. In this article we consider a linear regression model with random coefficient autoregressive disturbances that provides a convenient framework to analyze autocorrelation and ARCH simultaneously. Our stationarity conditions and testing results reveal the strong interaction between ARCH and autocorrelation. An empirical example of testing the unbiasedness of experts' expectations of inflation demonstrates that neglecting conditional heteroscedasticity or misspecifying the autocorrelation structure might result in unreliable inference.

KEY WORDS:

• Lagrange multiplier test
• Livingston biannual survey data
• Price expectation, Stationarity condition
• Unbiasedness hypothesis