Aggregation bias and the benign neglect hypothesis

Abstract

The results from prior examinations of the benign neglect hypothesis are mixed. The current research seeks to determine the extent to which aggregation bias can account for these inconsistencies. Guided by insights from the policing literature, characteristics of the social contexts of police districts in a Midwestern city are used to explore the relationship between racial conflict and police behavior. The results from autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analyses of the influence of a race riot on arrests fail to produce evidence of benign neglect at the city level. However, when data are disaggregated to the police district level of analysis evidence of benign neglect is found in the area of the city where the least powerful, black residents reside. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Keywords:

• benign neglect
• aggregation bias
• contextual effects
• segregation