How many sex offenders really live among us? Adjusted counts and population rates in five US states

Abstract

The current study focuses on creating a more refined understanding of the number and prevalence rates of sex offenders living in five states using adjusted aggregate counts and US census data. Registered sex offender (RSO) population data reported by the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children (NCMEC) were compared to data obtained directly from registries in five states and adjusted for those identified as confined, deported, deceased, or living in another jurisdiction. Results indicate that 43% of RSOs in the five states (ranging from 25% in Texas to 60% in Florida) were not living in the community. Similarly, when estimating point prevalence rates of RSOs per 100,000 people in the US population, rates were substantially inflated when not adjusted for those who are residing in the community. The need for accurate data to inform policy development, resource allocation, and public education is explored.

Keywords:

• sex offender
• registration
• community notification
• SORN

Notes

1. New York provides a statistical breakdown that was utilizable in the current study.

2. We are unable to ascertain the exact reason for this inconsistency, and note that NCMEC reported a total of 21,297 RSOs in Illinois in June 2011, while scraped data from Illinois in Spring 2010 revealed 24,378 RSOs (Ackerman et al. 2011) and Illinois registry managers reported in a December 2010 survey that there were 26,662 registrants in the state (Harris et al., forthcoming). It is unclear why NCMEC is receiving lower counts from Illinois.