Using Demographics to Predict Smoking Behavior: Large Sample Evidence from an Emerging Market

ABSTRACT

Smoking and nicotine addiction are among the major preventable causes of disease and mortality. Being able to target promotional campaigns effectively relies on a good understanding of the demographics of smokers and potential smokers. This study reports on the results of a large sample survey of the demographics of smokers and non-smokers in South African townships. Using logistical regression, it finds that smokers tend to be significantly, older males who are less educated, and somewhat surprisingly, with no religious affiliation. Implications for public health policy are identified, and avenues for future research recognized.

KEYWORDS:

• Addiction
• demographics
• emerging markets
• religious affiliation
• smoking
• South Africa

Notes

At the time of writing the exchange rate for the South African Rand (R) was approximately R14 = 1 Pound Sterling.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Melani Prinsloo

Melani Prinsloo affiliated with Lulea University of Technology, Lulea, Sweden

Lynne Tudhope

Lynne Tudhope affiliated with Lulea University of Technology, Lulea, Sweden

Leyland Pitt

Leyland Pitt affiliated with Segal Graduate School of Business, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC, Canada.

Colin Campbell

Colin Campbell affiliated with Segal Graduate School of Business, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC, Canada.