Design refresh planning models for managing obsolescence

Abstract

Fast moving technologies cause high-tech components to have shortened life cycles, rendering them quickly obsolete. Obsolescence is a significant problem for systems whose operational and support life is much longer than the procurement lifetimes of their constituent components. Long field-life systems such as aircraft, ships, and other systems require many updates of components and technology over their life to remain in manufacture and supportable. Design refresh planning is a strategic way of managing obsolescence. In this article, efficient mathematical models based on Integer Programming for design refresh planning are developed to determine the plan that minimizes the total obsolescence management costs. Decisions are made on when to execute design refreshes (dates) and what obsolete/non-obsolete system components should be replaced at a specific design refresh. Data uncertainty is also considered and obsolescence dates of the components are assumed to follow specific probability distributions. With this approach, different scenarios of executing design refreshes and the probabilities of adopting these scenarios can be determined. The final optimal cost becomes an expected value. An example of an electronic engine control unit is included for demonstration of the developed models.

Keywords:

• Design refresh planning
• obsolescence
• DMSMS
• integer programming

Funding

This work was funded by the National Science Foundation through grants 0928530, 0928628, 0928837. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations presented in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Liyu Zheng

Liyu Zheng is a senior designer in healthcare operational modeling and simulation at RTKL Associates Inc., a global architecture, planning, and design firm. Previously she was a postdoctoral research associate in the Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering at Iowa State University. She earned her Ph.D. in Industrial and Systems Engineering from Virginia Tech with a focus on data integration, knowledge environments, and decision support for product obsolescence management. More broadly, her research interests include support for engineering applications for product and systems design. She received both her B.S. and M.S. degrees in Automation from Zhejiang University in China. She is a member of IIE and ASQ.

Janis Terpenny

Janis Terpenny is the Department Chair and Joseph Walkup Professor of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering at Iowa State University (ISU). She is also the director of the Center for e-Design, an NSF industry/university cooperative research center, and serves as the technical lead for the Advanced Manufacturing Enterprise area of the Digital Manufacturing and Design Innovation national institute. Her research focus is engineering design (process and methods of early design; knowledge and information in design; product families and platforms; obsolescence in products and systems; and complexity of products and systems) and design education (multidisciplinary teams; impacts of project choice and context; and the retention and success of underrepresented students). Prior to joining ISU, she served as a program director at the National Science Foundation. She has also been a professor at Virginia Tech with appointments in the Departments of Engineering Education, Mechanical Engineering, and Industrial and Systems Engineering and an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. She has 9 years of industry work experience with the General Electric Company. She has served as Principal Investigator (PI) or co-PI of over $10 000 000 of sponsored research and is the author of over 150 peer-reviewed journal and conference publications. She is a Fellow of IIE, a Fellow of ASME, and a member of ASEE, INFORMS, Alpha Pi Mu, and Tau Beta Pi. She serves as an associate editor for the Engineering Economist and for the ASME Journal of Mechanical Design.

Peter Sandborn

Peter Sandborn is a Professor in the Department of Mechanical Engineering and member of the Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering. He currently serves as the Director of the Maryland Technology Enterprise Institute at the University of Maryland. His research interests include prognostics and health management for electronic systems (including optimal application of Prognostics and Health Management to systems, and design for availability), maintenance optimization (with specific application to wind turbines and wind farms), electronic part obsolescence management (including forecasting, mitigation, and refresh planning), parts selection and management for electronic systems, and system life-cycle and risk economics. Prior to joining the University of Maryland, he was a founder and Chief Technical Officer of Savantage, Inc. He has a Ph.D. degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Michigan and is the author of over 200 technical publications and books on multichip module design, electronic parts, and cost modeling. He is an Associate Editor for IEEE Transactions on Components, Packaging and Manufacturing Technology, a member of the Board of Directors for the International PHM Society, and a Fellow of the IEEE and ASME.