Evaluating Contemporary Crime Drop(s) in America, New York City, and Many Other Places

Abstract

This paper describes and evaluates some fundamental facts about the contemporary crime drop, summarizes the major explanations that have been offered for it, and assesses the validity of these explanations in light of observed trends. In contrast with much of the recent literature, we argue that the locus of the crime drop in the 1990s is not wholly consistent with the available data and that while New York City experienced substantial crime decreases, its uniqueness has been exaggerated. We suggest that it is important to partition the crime drop observed in New York City and elsewhere into global and more localized shifts, and we offer some observations about the factors that appear most germane to driving these different dimensions of recent crime drops. We conclude with some suggestions for future inquiry.

Keywords:

• crime trends
• 1990s crime drop
• New York City

This article is referred to by:

Placing the Crime Decline in Context: A Comment on Baumer and Wolff

Acknowledgments

We thank Richard Rosenfeld and Steven Messner for sharing their data to support these analyzes. David McDowall graciously provided input on implementing the procedures outlined in McDowall and Loftin (2009).

Notes

1. More than 11,000 cities reported crime data into the UCR program in 1990 and 2000; the largest 10% accounted for more than 75% of the total reported crime, while the other 90% of cities accounted for the remainder (author calculations, available upon request).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Eric P. Baumer

Eric Baumer is the Allen E. Liska Professor of Criminology at Florida State University. His research focuses on spatial and temporal dynamics of crime and punishment. His scholarship has appeared in Criminology, Justice Quarterly, American Journal of Sociology, and American Sociological Review.

Kevin T. Wolff

Kevin Wolff is a doctoral candidate in the College of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Florida State University. His research focuses on crime trends and the role of neighborhood context in shaping attitudes and behavior.