Crime and the decline of manufacturing, 1970–1990

The effects of the decline in manufacturing jobs in the 100 largest cities in the United States during the period from 1970 to 1990 are examined. It is hypothesized that cities which experienced the greatest losses would also suffer the greatest increases in poverty and unemployment. The elevation of poverty and the decrease in employment, in turn, would produce an increase in crime rates. All measures reflect the change over the period considered. The findings support the effects of reduced manufacturing on increased poverty and unemployment, but the correlations between the increase in poverty and the elevation of crime rates are negligible. The combination of the decline in manufacturing and the increase in unemployment is correlated with increases in economic crimes: robberies, burglaries, and arrests for drug offenses. The rates for larceny, murder, and aggravated assaults are not correlated with the decrease in manufacturing and the increase in unemployment.