Immediate, lag and time window effects of meteorological factors on ST-elevation myocardial infarction incidence

ABSTRACT

The influence of several meteorological parameters on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidences with immediately and/or delayed effects has been widely reported. It remains unknown whether the individual AMI subtypes reveal similar patterns. To date, generally seasonal variation in ST elevation MI (STEMI) has been investigated. However, these approaches couldn’t detect the effects of changes in multiple meteorological variables on STEMI incidence within a specific season. Therefore, the aim of our study is to explore immediate, delayed and cumulative effects of average daily temperature, atmospheric pressure and humidity on nation-wide STEMI hospital admissions. We linked daily hospitals’ STEMI admission data with meteorological stations’ data according to the patient’s permanent residence. Subsequently, a multivariate analysis based on a main effect generalised linear model, assuming a log-link function with a Poisson distribution, was conducted. With the help of lags, we were able to analyse delayed effects, while the cumulative effects of specific meteorological variables were analysed utilising time windows. As a result, we confirmed immediate and delayed negative effect of low temperature and low relative humidity for all observed lags as well as cumulative average effects of low temperature and low relative humidity for all observed time windows. However, no delayed, single-day effect for atmospheric pressure was detected. Nevertheless, the cumulative average effect was confirmed in all time windows suggesting that prolonged low pressure influences the incidence of STEMI. A novelty of our approach is the comparative examination of immediate, delayed and cumulative effect of specific meteorological variables on the incidence of STEMI. This approach enables us to gain a new insight into the phenomenon studied.

KEYWORDS:

• Weather
• acute myocardial infarction
• time lag
• season
• STEMI
• ambient temperature
• pressure
• humidity

Declaration of interest

The authors report no conflicts of interest. The authors alone are responsible for the content and writing of this article.