Policy Analysis for the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia: A Bayesian Network Model Approach

Abstract

The starting point of the policy analysis of the Tonle Sap Area in Cambodia was the Mekong Agreement of 1995. It specifies three development goals for the Mekong Basin: economic growth, poverty reduction and environmental sustainability. The possibilities to find combinations of sector policies for achieving these often conflicting goals were analysed systematically using a probabilistic, Bayesian network model. Four policy scenarios were constructed, one promoting each of the three development goals separately and one integrated, compromise scenario. The results indicate that a compromise policy is possible, being radically more balanced and acceptable than any of the policies that target only one of the three goals at a time.

Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the WUP-FIN team, particularly Juha Sarkkula, Jorma Koponen, Markku Virtanen, Seppo Hellsten, Matti Kummu, Ulla Heinonen and the Cambodian co-workers and trainees. The co-operation with the Mekong River Commission and Finnish Environment Institute is also appreciated. The Water Resources Laboratory staff from Helsinki University of Technology is equally acknowledged. The input of the following individuals who participated the expert panel deserve special thanks: Eric Baran, World Fish Center / IFReDI; Renaud Bailleux, consultant specialized to Tonle Sap Lake; Chris Barlow, Fisheries Programme of the MRC; Neou Bonheur, Ministry of Environment / Tonle Sap Biosphere Reserve Secretariat; Ian Campbell, Environmental Programme of the MRC; Patrick Evans, FAO's Participatory Natural Resource Management in the Tonle Sap Region Project; Solieng Mak, Basin Development Plan of the MRC and Robyn Johnston, Basin Development Plan of the MRC. This work has received funding from the Academy of Finland Project 211010.