A critical examination of models and projections of demand in water utility resource planning in England and Wales

Abstract

Demand modelling plays a vital role in water resource management yet has rarely been critically reviewed. This paper adopts a critical realist framework for a historical analysis of demand modelling practices and their role in long-term water resource management in England and Wales from 1945 to 2010. It then focuses on recent domestic demand models in the English and Welsh private water sector. A critique of scientific realist assumptions regarding demand models is presented and the role of the current regulatory environment in encouraging a highly strategic use of demand models is discussed. Policy recommendations toward more effective modelling practices are made.

Keywords:

• water demand projection
• domestic demand models
• critical realism
• privatization
• water resource planning
• England and Wales

Acknowledgements

While this paper does not reflect their opinions, I would like to acknowledge Paul Herrington of Leicester University, Philip Turton of the UK Environment Agency, and an anonymous reviewer for their generous support and helpful suggestions in developing this paper. Thanks are also owed to Sue Hubbard of the Hertford Waterworks Museum for support in accessing archived documents.

Notes

1. Later the Environment Agency.

2. Reinforced in later years by the 2003 Water Act, which made the consultation and publication of these plans a statutory requirement.

3. Having taken over responsibility for environmental regulation from the NRA in 1996.