Some systems perspectives on demand management during Cape Town’s 2015–2018 water crisis

ABSTRACT

Cape Town recently suffered severe water shortages triggered by a multi-year drought. These shortages were aggravated by reliance on demand management to balance supply and demand in the rapidly growing city. This article considers the interaction between the supply-side planning system and the less systematic approach used to plan and manage what is characterized as the demand-side system. Political priorities and preferences as well as perceptions of and attitudes towards risk influenced demand forecasts and development decisions. The experience illustrates the importance of a more systematic approach to demand forecasting to reduce the risk of supply failures.

KEYWORDS:

• Water supply
• utility management
• demand management
• climate
• sustainability
• resilience
• planning systems

Acknowledgments

This article is based on an invited presentation and valuable discussion at the workshop on Managing Domestic and Industrial Water Demands, organized and funded by the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, 10–11 December 2018. It was informed by generous interactions with many professionals, practitioners and academics who were involved in managing and analyzing the Cape Town crisis. It also greatly benefited from the comments of three anonymous reviewers.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.