Ireland's EU Referendum Experience

Abstract

The purpose of this article is twofold. First, it surveys Ireland's European Union referendum experience, tracing the key actors, issues and political dynamics of seven European referendums from 1973 to 2008. It unpicks the institutional rules of the referendum game in Ireland stemming from the McKenna and Coughlan judgements, the operation of the Referendum Commission and the effect of this institutional environment on referendum campaigns and outcomes. Second, building on a framework originally developed by Darcy and Laver (1990), this article investigates the emergence of a dynamic in Irish referendums on EU treaties with two key elements: elite withdrawal and populist capture.

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank the editors, two anonymous referees, Michael Gallagher and Clive Church for their extremely helpful comments on previous versions of this article.

Notes

1. The second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty took place on 2 October 2009. The referendum was passed by 67.1% to 32.9% on a turnout of approximately 58% (source: RTÉ).

2. Darcy and Laver (1990: 16) based their analysis in part on the 1986 divorce referendum in Ireland and proposed that elite withdrawal in referendum campaigns consists of ‘elite retreat brought about by community conflict’ when the elite either loses or cedes control of the referendum campaign to ad hoc groups. While in the 1986 referendum campaign non‐government political parties such as Fianna Fáil pledged neutrality on the issue and as such did not actively campaign in the Nice I and Lisbon I referendums, the political parties which did come out in favour of the treaty ran weak campaigns. I am very grateful to Michael Gallagher for clarification of this point.

3. TNS/MRBI Irish Times Poll, 5 November 2007.

4. As reported by Stephen Collins, Irish Times, 11 September 2008.

5. Micheál Martin, Minister for Foreign Affairs, RTÉ Morning Ireland programme, 30 July 2008.

6. John Perry TD, speaking at the Joint Committee on European Scrutiny – Joint Committee on European Affairs Lisbon discussion, 3 July 2008.

7. Marian Harkin, Independent MEP, speaking at the Joint Committee on European Scrutiny – Joint Committee on European Affairs Lisbon discussion, 3 July 2008.

8. Individuals surveyed were asked first about the number of states currently in the EU, second whether Switzerland was a member of the EU, and third about the rotating Presidency of the EU (a fourth was also asked about the number of Eurozone countries. This question was excluded from the analysis as it was of a different order of difficulty) (Eurobarometer, 2008).