The Lisbon Experience in Ireland: ‘No’ in 2008 but ‘Yes’ in 2009 – How and Why?

Abstract

In June 2008, the Irish electorate rejected the Lisbon Treaty in a referendum. Sixteen months later, voters went back to the polls and overwhelmingly backed the Treaty in a rerun referendum with 69 per cent voting ‘yes’. What explains this change of heart? This report provides a detailed review of the 2009 Lisbon Treaty referendum in Ireland. The paper argues that the switch from ‘no’ to ‘yes’ is explained not only by the changed economic circumstances the country faced but also by the guarantees secured by the government from their EU counterparts on the issues of tax and the EU Commissioner, a more informed electorate and a better campaign from those advocating a ‘yes’ vote. This conclusion undermines the view that the referendum was simply ‘second order’ in nature and that national political considerations such as the economy were the sole factors in explaining the switch from ‘no’ to ‘yes’. The report also concludes that ‘campaigns matter’ in Irish EU referendums because of the unfamiliar partisan configuration that voters are faced with.

Keywords:

• referendums
• Lisbon Treaty
• ‘second-order’ elections
• European Union

Acknowledgements

The author wishes to thank Richard Sinnott, Johan Elkink, Patrick Joyce and Deirdre Tinney for their comments and advice and acknowledges the financial support of the Irish Research Council for Humanities and Social Science.

Notes

Full judgment is available at http://www.bailii.org/ie/cases/IESC/1987/4.html

The only successful Libertas-associated candidate was the ‘Movement Pour la France’ candidate Phillipe DeVilliers.

The swing figure is calculated following Butler. The swing figure takes the average of the gain in the percentage of the ‘yes’ vote and decline in the percentage of the ‘no’ vote. Although this measurement is imperfect, it does give us a broad idea of the movement of opinion from the ‘no’ side to ‘yes’ (Butler & Stokes, 1971: 140–151).