#LE19 – a turning of the tide? Report of local elections in Northern Ireland, 2019

ABSTRACT

Otherwise routine local elections in Northern Ireland on 2 May 2019 were bestowed unusual significance by exceptional circumstance. A prolonged stalemate between the two largest political parties had left Northern Ireland without a devolved government for over two years; meanwhile, arrangements for the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland had been central in the turbulent ‘Brexit’ process engulfing the UK government. Meaning, that the local elections in 2019 would be a litmus test of public opinion in Northern Ireland at a time when the place more often spoken about than spoken for. In the event, results were mixed; there were signs of electoral continuity and others of political flux. Two trends will likely be significant in the long term. First, the consolidation of ethno-nationally defined electorates on the part of the DUP and Sinn Féin following the continued decline in support for the moderate unionist UUP and moderate nationalist SDLP. Second, a surge in support for the cross-community Alliance Party and a notable increase in support for the non-aligned Green Party and People Before Profit Alliance, alongside Independent candidates, suggests diversification in the issues directing Northern Irish voters’ allegiance, and at least a partial decline in the electoral salience of the constitutional question.

KEYWORDS:

• Northern Ireland
• United Kingdom
• local elections
• campaign
• Brexit
• unionism
• nationalism
• political parties

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes on contributor

Lisa Claire Whitten is a PhD candidate at Queen’s University Belfast. Before beginning her PhD, Lisa worked in various political offices including for an MP in Westminster, the Office of the Northern Ireland Executive in Brussels and for a member of the US Congress in Washington, DC. Her current research is focused on the impact of ‘Brexit’ on the political constitution of Northern Ireland.

ORCID

Lisa Claire Whitten http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7743-0522

Notes

1 Northern Ireland has been without devolved government since the collapse of the power-sharing Executive on 16 January 2017. For a live tally of the number of days past without government see: https://howlonghasnorthernirelandnothadagovernment.com/.

2 Northern Ireland Assembly elections were held on 5 May 2016; Northern Ireland took part in UK’s Referendum on EU Membership on 23 June 2016; Northern Ireland Assembly elections were held on 2 March 2017 following the collapse of the Executive; Northern Ireland took part in UK General Election on 8 June 2017.

3 For an account of the contested position of Northern Ireland in the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement, see Phinnemore and Hayward (2018); for an overview of the ‘Irish Backstop’ and explanation of why it has proved so controversial in domestic UK politics, see Menon et al. (2019).

4 In 2014, local elections 13 TUV candidates were elected and 3 UKIP candidates were elected, the parties received 4.5% and 1.5% of FP votes, respectively (see Matthews, 2015, pp. 437–438; Whyte & Kelly, 2015). For both parties, this was the strongest showing ever in Northern Ireland local elections and an increase from the 6 TUV candidates (2% FP votes) and 1 UKIP candidate (0.4% FP votes) elected in 2011 (see Whyte, 2011).

5 Literature on Northern Ireland as a deeply divided society is substantial; for an introductory text that adopts a ‘two community’ interpretation see: Making Sense of the troubles: a history of the Northern Ireland conflict (McKitterick & McVea, 2012).

6 Literature on the political history of Northern Ireland is also substantial; for an overview of Northern Irish politics prior to 1998, see Aughey and Morrow’s edited volume Northern Ireland politics (1996); for a comprehensive overview of Northern Irish political history to present day, see O’Leary three volume A treatise on Northern Ireland (2019a, 2019b, 2019c).

7 Hereafter the terms Unionist and Nationalist are used to refer to the opposing ethno-national, political identities in Northern Ireland; these align with terms used in the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement (1998, Strand 1 (6)) and those used by political parties and political representatives to self-identify.

8 Cross-community safeguards include a requirement for weighted majorities of 60% of members present including at least 40% each of unionist and nationalist representatives present and voting (see GFA, 1998, Strand One 5(a)–(e)).

9 For an introduction to the consociational model and overview of perspectives on its operation in Northern Ireland, see Taylor (2009).