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Abstract
This paper provides an analysis of spatial and temporal patterns in housing supply in Australia over the period 2005–06 to 2015–16. It shows that by international standards, per capita housing supply is very strong in Australia. However, housing supply is concentrated in areas with relatively high prices. Over time, some changes in the geography of housing supply are emerging, including a closer match between the supply of units and “job-rich” locations. This paper concludes by discussing how understanding patterns of new supply can help policymakers determine interventions that increase housing supply’s impact to alleviate inflationary pressures, hence improving housing affordability.
本文分析澳大利亚2005 年至2006 年以及2015 年至2016 年两个时段住房的 时间和空间分布，发现依国际标准，澳大利亚人均住房供应非常充足，但主 要集中在价格相对较高的地区。澳大利亚住房供应的地理分布在十年中发生 了变化，例如住房供给与“工作机会丰富”地段更为吻合。文章最后指出， 理解新供给模式有助于决策者选择干预方式，提高住房供给消解通胀压力的 能力，并由此提高住房支付能力。
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to thank Richard Watling from Housing Research at the Victorian Department of Planning Transport and Local Infrastructure and Ben Nayton from the Western Australia Department of Planning for supplying the demolitions data for Victoria and Western Australia respectively.
Notes
2. The specific ABS catalogue numbers are noted at the foot of tables and figures.
3. ABS Cat. No. 8731.0 and 8752.0.
4. A non-residential building that is converted for residential use.
5. Renovations commonly result in additional space because the building work can enable increases in dwelling size and therefore translates into an increase in established housing supply.
6. For example, Building approval data from ABS Cat. No. 8731.0 shows that in Melbourne (Perth) planning authorities granted 67,114 (24,496) approvals for the construction of new dwelling units in 2015–16. In contrast 396 (10) dwelling unit approvals were granted for the conversion of non-residential buildings. In Melbourne 267 were granted in the Melbourne (C) LGA, so most of this conversion activity is in the vicinity of the city’s CBD. See Section 5 below for evidence in relation to demolitions.
7. The OECD Affordable Housing Database can be accessed at https://www.oecd.org/social/affordable-housingdatabase.htm
8. The sample of 13 countries represents 37% of the 35 OECD member countries.
9. A high inflow of overseas born migrants is important because when newly arrived migrants buy or rent a property they do not concurrently vacate a property that can be bought or leased. So two countries with the same population growth rate, but different sources of growth, one sourcing population increases through overseas migration, the other through high fertility rates, require different levels of housing supply to meet population driven housing needs. The country with high levels of overseas migration requires a higher housing supply. The demographic composition of a country’s population is but one relevant factor; different policy settings will also be a potentially important influence.
10. Note also that these figures take no account of demolitions. On a priori grounds it is difficult to judge whether demolitions are likely to be higher or lower than in other OECD countries.
11. See Jericho (Citation2016).
12. The source for the Melbourne data is https://www.data.vic.gov.au/data/dataset/project-layer-depicting-housing-activity-over-the-years-from-2005-and-2014. Data for Perth Bunbury and Peel Region were obtained from the Department of Planning for the period 2005–06 to 2015–16. We are grateful for their support in providing these data. They are publicly available in the WA Department of Planning’s Urban Growth Monitor 2014 report (Section 4).
13. In Melbourne the percentage increase in the housing stock after demolitions is 23.2%, while population grows by 20.9% between 2005–06 and 2014–15. In Perth, Bunbury and Peel regions the equivalent percentage growth figures are 26.9% and 29.2%.
14. Percentage increases in the housing stock after demolitions (population) are 14.2% (15.6%) in Sydney, 10.8% (6.9%) in Hobart, 25.7% (25.0%) in Darwin, 21.5% (20.9%) in Brisbane, 25.0% (16.6%) in ACT and 14.5% (10.7%) in Adelaide.
15. There is an important caveat here. It is conceivable (though implausible) that most approvals in high value segments have been issued for the construction of low cost housing with prices well below the median in that LGA, yet they will all be assigned in the high value segment. The opposite might be happening in LGAs in low value segments.
16. This measure specifically refers to the number of jobs within each LGA boundary, as opposed to the number of people employed within an LGA.