https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8557-8802
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ABSTRACT
This paper combines forecasts of Australia’s population with microsimulation and tenure choice models to generate estimates of housing assistance demand from older Australians in 2031. Our projections suggest that singles retreat from home ownership, while rental tenures become increasingly feminised by 2031 as they turn into the tenures of (constrained) choice for a growing proportion of singles and sole parents. Even if home ownership declines by a modest 5 percentage points, real government expenditure on Commonwealth Rent Assistance for Australians aged 55 years and over in 2031 is projected to be more than three times its level in 2011.
本文将澳大利亚人口预测与微观模拟和居住选择模型相结合，以生成2031年澳大利亚老年人住房援助需求的估计. 我们的预测显示，到2031年，单身人士将不再拥有住房，而租房的女性比例将越来越高，因为越来越多的单身人士和单亲父母将把租房变成(受限制的)选择. 即使住房拥有率小幅下降5个百分点，到2031年，联邦政府为55岁及以上的澳大利亚人提供的租房补贴的实际支出预计将是2011年的三倍多.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes
1. See Orchard (Citation2014) for a succinct description of the past and current directions in Australian housing policy.
2. In 1981 persons in the 55–64 and 65 and over age ranges were 9% and 10% (respectively) of the resident population in Australia. Thirty years later (in 2011) the population share of these two cohorts increased to 11% and 14%, respectively (ABS Citation2014).
3. Data downloaded from the OECD Affordable Housing Database at http://www.oecd.org/social/affordable-housing-database.htm (accessed 01/06/2018).
4. There was a 296% percentage increase in the rent index over years March 1987- June 2019 which is well ahead of the 253% increase in the all groups consumer price index (CPI) over the same period. Over the more recent March 2002 to March 2019 period, the pace at which rents have increased (68.9%) has risen relative to the all groups CPI (50.9%) (ABS Citation2019).
5. Across OECD countries expenditure on public pensions is 8.2% of GDP; the pension share in Australia is roughly half the OECD average at 4.3% in 2013 (OECD Citation2017).
6. Every 5 years Australia’s Treasury produces an Intergenerational Report that assesses the long-term sustainability of current Government policies and how demographic changes may impact on economic growth, workforce and public finances over the next 40 years. See https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2015-intergenerational-report/.
7. This projected decline is modest by comparison to the recent declines in the rates of home ownership of younger age cohorts. For example, persons aged 25–34 years of age had a 55% rate of home ownership back in 1982, but by 2013 this had fallen to 32% (Wood and Ong Citation2017).
8. The model estimates are available from the authors upon request.
9. See Wood and Ong (Citation2008) for a detailed description of AHURI-3M.
10. The average income of those remaining in home ownership is nearly $70,000, but is under $40,000 for those predicted to fall out of home ownership.
11. Though they only accounted for 3.5% of 2011 home owners.
12. An income stream generated by one person is likely to be more volatile than one generated by two persons.
13. However, spending on assistance remains constant as a share of GDP at 0.04%.
14. Real GDP in 2011 was obtained from the ABS (Citation2012). Linear extrapolation methods were used to forecast real GDP in 2031.
15. In Wood et al. (Citation2010) it was estimated that among those aged 50 years and over, average superannuation balances accumulated by renters were only about $31,000 in 2002, and $41,000 in 2006.
16. As are refundable deposits for residential aged care.